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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Even during the "classic" winters there's a great deal of
significant local variation. During the 1962/63 winter I was working at Prestwick Airport, commuting 30 miles by motorbike from Largs. There was very little snow during that winter and it wasn't especially frosty. The notable feature of the winter for a motorbike commuter was that it was very dry in that part of the country. From my point of view that winter was something that happened elsewhere. Norman Lynagh I remember 1962-63 as epecially snowy, because there was so much snow lying on the playing fields at school that we could not play hockey or lacrosse, and instead went for walks and sledging - a very much pleasanter alternative. That was at St Andrews. Also, I first went skiing on Cairngorm in January 1964, when there was very little snow and we had to trek miles up across the heather to find a patch of snow big enough to do a single turn on. In the evenings, the ski school added insult to injury by showing us films taken the previous winter of the ski road with snow walls either side higher than the buses, and people actually skiing down and jumping across the road with traffic passing below. (I bet elfansafety would have quite a lot to say about that these days, if they're not too busy forbidding emergency teams to rescue people in mine shafts.) Which just goes to back up Norman's point about significant local variation. Anne |
#2
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I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it:
a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the GW climatic change - hence not so severe. b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period, such as the 80's e.g. c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling. I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b) Any thoughts? Cheers, James -- James Brown |
#3
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Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate has
only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years. What a plank you are. "James Brown" wrote in message ... I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it: a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the GW climatic change - hence not so severe. b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period, such as the 80's e.g. c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling. I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b) Any thoughts? Cheers, James -- James Brown |
#4
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On Mar 14, 12:39*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate has only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years. What a plank you are. "James Brown" wrote in message ... I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it: a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the GW climatic change - hence not so severe. b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period, such as the 80's e.g. c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling. I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b) Any thoughts? Cheers, James -- James Brown- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected. |
#5
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![]() "RWood" wrote in message ... On Mar 14, 12:39 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote: Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate has only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years. What a plank you are. "James Brown" wrote in message ... I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it: a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the GW climatic change - hence not so severe. b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period, such as the 80's e.g. c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling. I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b) Any thoughts? Cheers, James -- James Brown- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected. Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion. |
#6
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On 14/03/2010 00:39, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
wrote in message ... On Mar 14, 12:39 pm, "Lawrence wrote: Climate change? 4.7 billion years of earth history yet you think climate has only changed during the speck of history of the last hunderd odd years. What a plank you are. "James wrote in message ... I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it: a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the GW climatic change - hence not so severe. b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period, such as the 80's e.g. c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling. I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b) Any thoughts? Cheers, James -- James Brown- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - There is nothing in Mr Brown's post that implies climate change has not occurred before. Your reply is a cheap shot, attacking a straw man. Perhaps the "plank" epithet should be redirected. Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion. The Secretary of State for Justice? A relative of The Wicker Man? ;-) |
#7
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In message , Lawrence
Jenkins writes Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion. Ah the group idiot resurfaces. What's up is alt.rightwinglosers quiet? Out of touch with fashion? You're just out of touch, full stop. -- Jim |
#8
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On 14 Mar, 04:05, Jim Kewley wrote:
In message , Lawrence Jenkins writes Is 'straw man' the new buzz term just like anthropogenic global warming once was? please let me know as I'm so out of touch with fashion. Ah the group idiot resurfaces. Ad hominem attacks to a troll? Snipped. The question's answer does poke up a formal list of... Well, he http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies Personally the one about a solution fitting most conditions IS the most likely if it works. (Conjunction Fallacy.) To answer the OP. The problem with all tenure about the recent weather is compounded by needing answers that are not required: Base rate fallacy The noble art of using weak evidence to make a probability judgement without taking into account known empirical statistics about the probability. Climate and weather prediction is all about probability whereas nomenclature about times past isn't. Or not, as the case might be. |
#9
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In article ,
James Brown writes: I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it: a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the GW climatic change - hence not so severe. b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period, such as the 80's e.g. c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling. I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b) Any thoughts? Only that we don't know yet. If we get two or three more cold winters in the next five years, then we'll incline towards (b). Mind you, (a) and (b) need not be mutually exclusive. Since 2009-10 was colder, if you take the average temperature over the three months, than the cold winters of the 1980s, it could turn out that both (a) and (b) are true. -- John Hall "Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people from coughing." Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83) |
#10
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![]() On 13/03/2010 22:45, James Brown wrote: I can't decide how to rate this Winter. Is it: a) The once in a few decades type like 1947 or 1962 - but modified by the GW climatic change - hence not so severe. b) The continuance of a pendulum swing to a more colder UK Winter period, such as the 80's e.g. c) None of the above - just another unique scenario - but without implications of GW or longer term Winter cooling. I'm leaning towards a) but together with last year, I'm also drawn to b) Any thoughts? Cheers, James I go for c). For me, this winter was much more severe than 1962. I was then living on the outskirts of London. Speaking to locals, they say it was similar to 1962 (although I am not too sure about their memories). -- Howard Neil |
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