"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Mar 22, 10:18 am, Scott W wrote:
On 22 Mar, 09:56, "Martin Rowley"

wrote:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...est-summer-pre...

... but perhaps it'll be right this time ;-)

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

I don't see anything in their forecast that looks out of the ordinary
for an average British summer... three warm days followed by a
thundery breakdown... I could forecast that...

See the other thread for my comments - and a little bit of background
too of their incorrect summer forecasts over the past 2 years.

Just ignore them. They've managed an excellent publicity coup for
their company, on a poor summer forecasting track record, by playing
to the Mail's politics and dislike of....well anything that will sell
newspapers to their target audience really.


Spot on, sensationalist newspapers are a disgrace
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...climate-change

http://www.independent.co.uk/environ...t-1836036.html

On 22 Mar, 14:03, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"Bonos Ego" wrote ...

I just don't see it being a hot summer this year, quite the opposite.

As mentioned by me before, following a cold winter we more often
than
not get a cooler than average summer and I see no reason for this
summer to be any different.

... has anyone got a source for this statement:-

" The firm also accurately forecast a "big freeze" lasting into March
last winter. "

The forecast as presented is quite bold - this is how the 'Daily
Telegraph' has presented it ...

" It now predicts that average temperatures this June, July and August
will beat those of 1976, the hottest summer ever recorded with a
sweltering average of 17.8C (64F)"

If they're really saying that we're going to beat that (in the CET
record), then that would be something. Even more dramatic in my view
than saying that we might exceed the 2003 individual highest screen
temperature.

The official forecast is apparently released tomorrow, so watch that
space ...

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/

"Iceland is preparing for an even more powerful and potentially
destructive volcano after a small eruption at the weekend shot red-hot
molten lava high into the sky.

Freymodur Sigmundsson, a geophysicist, concluded that the immediate
danger was receding and that the lava was flowing along a one
kilometre-long fissure and in the darkness binding.

The original fear was that the volcano had erupted directly underneath
the Eyjafjallajokull glacier."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7070239.ece

According to NottheMetO, the charts show a significant chance of
further eruptions tomorrow afternoon.

(WetterZentrale Tuesday afternoon, 23rd March 2010.)

A year without summer might be on the cards too, so don't put all your
money on the other.

On 22 Mar, 14:03, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"Bonos Ego" wrote ...

I just don't see it being a hot summer this year, quite the opposite.

As mentioned by me before, following a cold winter we more often
than
not get a cooler than average summer and I see no reason for this
summer to be any different.

... has anyone got a source for this statement:-

" The firm also accurately forecast a "big freeze" lasting into March
last winter. "

The forecast as presented is quite bold - this is how the 'Daily
Telegraph' has presented it ...

" It now predicts that average temperatures this June, July and August
will beat those of 1976, the hottest summer ever recorded with a
sweltering average of 17.8C (64F)"

If they're really saying that we're going to beat that (in the CET
record), then that would be something. Even more dramatic in my view
than saying that we might exceed the 2003 individual highest screen
temperature.

The official forecast is apparently released tomorrow, so watch that
space ...

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Martin,

I'm at work at the moment, but I've previously done some work on the
correlation between cold winters (based on CET) and the following
summer, which I posted back in January. When I get home from work I
will try and find my original post or, if not, I will recreate the
analysis.

Martin,

I've done a quick analysis on the correlation between cold winters
since 1940 and the following summer whereby;

Winter Average CET 1971-2000 = +4.5c
Cold Winter CET = +3.5c

Summer Average CET 1971-2000 = +15.6c
Below Average Summer CET +15.1c
Above Average Summer CET +16.1c
Average Summer CET =15.1c =16.1c

Of the 23 Winters since 1940 that had an average Central England
Temperature of = +3.5c the following Summer turned out to be the
following;

Below Average = 9
Above Average = 2
Average = 12

This can also be viewed in spreadsheet form by clicking on the
following link http://i393.photobucket.com/albums/p...sSince1940.jpg

Source data taken from the Met Officehttp://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

Conclusion, I would go for a cooler or average summer, NOT a BBQ
summer this year.

On Mar 22, 6:04*pm, Bonos Ego wrote:
Martin,

I've done a quick analysis on the correlation between cold winters
since 1940 and the following summer whereby;

Winter Average CET 1971-2000 = +4.5c
Cold Winter CET = +3.5c

Summer Average CET 1971-2000 = +15.6c
Below Average Summer CET +15.1c
Above Average Summer CET +16.1c
Average Summer CET =15.1c =16.1c

Of the 23 Winters since 1940 that had an average Central England
Temperature of = +3.5c the following Summer turned out to be the
following;

Below Average = 9
Above Average = 2
Average = 12

This can also be viewed in spreadsheet form by clicking on the
following linkhttp://i393.photobucket.com/albums/pp17/BonosEgo/ColdWintersSince1940...

Source data taken from the Met Officehttp://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html
Conclusion, I would go for a cooler or average summer, NOT a BBQ

I sincerely hope that's just a coincidence - otherwise 2010 will truly
be a weather "annus horribilis" with us having to pay all year for the
good January!

Nick

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Just ignore them. They've managed an excellent publicity coup for
their company, on a poor summer forecasting track record, by playing
to the Mail's politics and dislike of....well anything that will sell
newspapers to their target audience really.

They also managed to get a short piece on the front page of the
Telegraph. I suppose that because most newspaper people know next to
nothing about the weather, they accept whatever guff they are fed in
press releases at face value.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

In article
,
Bonos Ego writes:
I've done a quick analysis on the correlation between cold winters
since 1940 and the following summer whereby;

Winter Average CET 1971-2000 = +4.5c
Cold Winter CET = +3.5c

Summer Average CET 1971-2000 = +15.6c
Below Average Summer CET +15.1c
Above Average Summer CET +16.1c
Average Summer CET =15.1c =16.1c

Of the 23 Winters since 1940 that had an average Central England
Temperature of = +3.5c the following Summer turned out to be the
following;

Below Average = 9
Above Average = 2
Average = 12

snip

Could not this be a result of using the CET for 1971-2000 but then
looking at all winters from 1940? Because of the warming trend in our
climate over the last 30-40 years, you'd expect a lot of years in the
1940s to 1960s to have both winters and summers that were cool by the
standards of 1971-2000, so that for those cold winters mostly to be
followed by cold summers would not be surprising.

What happens if either (1) you only look at cold winters since 1971 or
(2) you use the CET of all years since 1940 in determining your
categories for winters and summers?
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On 22 Mar, 14:54, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"gutter Press"

Hey Cuddles was that story in the Guardian as well?

I haven't the faintest...

On Mar 22, 6:29*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
*Bonos Ego writes:



I've done a quick analysis on the correlation between cold winters
since 1940 and the following summer whereby;

Winter Average CET 1971-2000 = +4.5c
Cold Winter CET = +3.5c

Summer Average CET 1971-2000 = +15.6c
Below Average Summer CET +15.1c
Above Average Summer CET +16.1c
Average Summer CET =15.1c =16.1c

Of the 23 Winters since 1940 that had an average Central England
Temperature of = +3.5c the following Summer turned out to be the
following;

Below Average = 9
Above Average = 2
Average = 12

snip

Could not this be a result of using the CET for 1971-2000 but then
looking at all winters from 1940? Because of the warming trend in our
climate over the last 30-40 years, you'd expect a lot of years in the
1940s to 1960s to have both winters and summers that were cool by the
standards of 1971-2000, so that for those cold winters mostly to be
followed by cold summers would not be surprising.

What happens if either (1) you only look at cold winters since 1971 or
(2) you use the CET of all years since 1940 in determining your
categories for winters and summers?
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

John,

The average Winter CET 1940-2010 = +4.2c
The average Summer CET 1940-2010 = also +15.6c

The average Winter CET 1940-1970 = +3.7c
The average Winter CET 1940-1970 = +15.4c

The average Winter CET 1971-2010 = +4.5c
The average Summer CET 1971-2009 = +15.7c

If I get time later I will have another look at the the cold winters
since 1971, based on 1971-2010 averages.

On 22 Mar, 18:04, Bonos Ego wrote:

Of the 23 Winters since 1940 that had an average Central England
Temperature of = +3.5c the following Summer turned out to be the
following;

Below Average = 9
Above Average = 2
Average = 12

Conclusion, I would go for a cooler or average summer.

I'd say from the data presented it could be a cooler or an average or
an above average summer.

Unless you can isolate the reasons why they are not all below or above
a certain line, then you have to suspect there is a step missing in
the projection.

Sorry about that. I am not saying that you can't find it. I am just
telling you to look again.