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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#21
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Of course the past does not always equal the future, I'm only showing
what has happened since 1940 when there has been a Winter with the CET below +3.5c. |
#22
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In article
, Bonos Ego writes: If I just analysis the cold winters since 1971 whereby the average Winter CET is below +4.0c, the following Summers turned out as follows (see spreadsheet link) http://i393.photobucket.com/albums/p...sSince1971.jpg Above Average = 0 Below Average = 5 Average = 4 snip Thanks. That does seem fairly conclusive that a warm summer is unlikely. -- John Hall "Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people from coughing." Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83) |
#23
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.... to add to the analysis elsewhere in this thread ...
I maintain an 'index' of summer (JJA) against winter (DJF) based on a combination of Kew Observatory (various screens) & Heathrow, using a mix of maximum temperature & sunshine for summer and mean temperature for winter. Lots and lots of fudging I'm afraid, given the changes in instrumentation, exposure (North Wall screen for a lot of the early Kew stuff), and of course we have 'artificial' changes with regard to sunshine due to the various clean air laws and the inevitable urbanisation of the record ... but ... I find the indices give a useful summary of each season as defined above. (1): Looking first at the 10 coldest winters since 1900 in that series:- ... one (1906/07) was followed by the one of the 'worst' summers in the series, and in the CET record, it was the 4th coldest summer [ in that part of the series where figures are logged to the nearest tenth degC]. ... one (1946/47) was followed by a summer that was more than one standard deviation 'better' than the mean, *but* only just & certainly outside the 'top-10' of such fine summers. ... the overwhelming majority (8 out of 10) were all within one standard deviation of the all-series mean. (2): Looking at the top 10% of 'fine' summers, a total of 14 events (based, remember, on maximum temperature & sunshine - i.e. the factors that in my view 'govern' how people respond to the season overall), then :- ... 10 were preceded by winters with a mean temperature value within one standard deviation of the whole-series mean. ... 3 were preceded by winters +1sd of mean ... 1 was preceded by a winter +2sd of mean NONE of the 'fine' summers as defined was preceded by a winter with a value lower than -1sd of the all-series mean (i.e., a 'noticeably' cold winter). Taking (1) and (2) together, it would be remarkable if the forecast by PWS were to verify as presented - i.e., beating the 1976 mean temperature (which is number 1 in my list, by a decent margin), and might aptly justify the 'exception that proves the rule' cop-out :-) Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 |
#24
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"Martin Rowley" wrote ...
snip The official forecast is apparently released tomorrow, so watch that space ... http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/ Martin. .... or even tonight! http://www.positiveweathersolutions....Long-Range.php Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 |
#25
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On 22 Mar, 19:26, Bonos Ego wrote:
Of course the past does not always equal the future, I'm only showing what has happened since 1940 when there has been a Winter with the CET below +3.5c. Are you talking to me? No offence if you removed all I said in the message you replied to due to any reference to the message I was replying to. But you do put your credibility on an edge it can not settle too well on. (Notwithstanding the fact that any appeal to statistics in fluid mechanics is asking for a kick in the backside.) CET: Each year is its own average; each collection of such averages is a compound mistake. Itso Fatso. Look for a cause for each individual temperature reading. Or post the full set of peaks and troughs. |
#26
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On Mar 22, 10:27*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On 22 Mar, 19:26, Bonos Ego wrote: Of course the past does not always equal the future, I'm only showing what has happened since 1940 when there has been a Winter with the CET below +3.5c. Are you talking to me? No offence if you removed all I said in the message you replied to due to any reference to the message I was replying to. But you do put your credibility on an edge it can not settle too well on. (Notwithstanding the fact that any appeal to statistics in fluid mechanics is asking for a kick in the backside.) CET: Each year is its own average; each collection of such averages is a compound mistake. Itso Fatso. Look for a cause for each individual temperature reading. Or post the full set of peaks and troughs. Everything is an approximation. The length of a metre is an approximation. A second is an approximation. The strengths of earthquakes, that you constantly subject us to list of, are approximations. You are an approximation. We all get by on them. Even you. PS Did you have a think about the thousands of earthquakes that you miss in your calculations each day? Now there you're not even using a decent approximation, W. |
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