Of course the past does not always equal the future, I'm only showing
what has happened since 1940 when there has been a Winter with the CET
below +3.5c.

In article
,
Bonos Ego writes:
If I just analysis the cold winters since 1971 whereby the average
Winter CET is below +4.0c, the following Summers turned out as follows
(see spreadsheet link)
http://i393.photobucket.com/albums/p...sSince1971.jpg

Above Average = 0
Below Average = 5
Average = 4
snip

Thanks. That does seem fairly conclusive that a warm summer is unlikely.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

.... to add to the analysis elsewhere in this thread ...

I maintain an 'index' of summer (JJA) against winter (DJF) based on a
combination of Kew Observatory (various screens) & Heathrow, using a
mix of maximum temperature & sunshine for summer and mean temperature
for winter.

Lots and lots of fudging I'm afraid, given the changes in
instrumentation, exposure (North Wall screen for a lot of the early
Kew stuff), and of course we have 'artificial' changes with regard to
sunshine due to the various clean air laws and the inevitable
urbanisation of the record ... but ... I find the indices give a
useful summary of each season as defined above.

(1): Looking first at the 10 coldest winters since 1900 in that
series:-
... one (1906/07) was followed by the one of the 'worst' summers in the
series, and in the CET record, it was the 4th coldest summer [ in that
part of the series where figures are logged to the nearest tenth
degC].
... one (1946/47) was followed by a summer that was more than one
standard deviation 'better' than the mean, *but* only just & certainly
outside the 'top-10' of such fine summers.
... the overwhelming majority (8 out of 10) were all within one
standard deviation of the all-series mean.

(2): Looking at the top 10% of 'fine' summers, a total of 14 events
(based, remember, on maximum temperature & sunshine - i.e. the factors
that in my view 'govern' how people respond to the season overall),
then :-
... 10 were preceded by winters with a mean temperature value within
one standard deviation of the whole-series mean.
... 3 were preceded by winters +1sd of mean
... 1 was preceded by a winter +2sd of mean

NONE of the 'fine' summers as defined was preceded by a winter with a
value lower than -1sd of the all-series mean (i.e., a 'noticeably'
cold winter).

Taking (1) and (2) together, it would be remarkable if the forecast by
PWS were to verify as presented - i.e., beating the 1976 mean
temperature (which is number 1 in my list, by a decent margin), and
might aptly justify the 'exception that proves the rule' cop-out :-)

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

"Martin Rowley" wrote ...
snip
The official forecast is apparently released tomorrow, so watch that
space ...

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/

Martin.


.... or even tonight!

http://www.positiveweathersolutions....Long-Range.php

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

On 22 Mar, 19:26, Bonos Ego wrote:

Of course the past does not always equal the future, I'm only showing
what has happened since 1940 when there has been a Winter with the CET
below +3.5c.

Are you talking to me?

No offence if you removed all I said in the message you replied to due
to any reference to the message I was replying to.

But you do put your credibility on an edge it can not settle too well
on.

(Notwithstanding the fact that any appeal to statistics in fluid
mechanics is asking for a kick in the backside.)

CET: Each year is its own average; each collection of such averages is
a compound mistake. Itso Fatso.

Look for a cause for each individual temperature reading. Or post the
full set of peaks and troughs.

On Mar 22, 10:27*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On 22 Mar, 19:26, Bonos Ego wrote:



Of course the past does not always equal the future, I'm only showing
what has happened since 1940 when there has been a Winter with the CET
below +3.5c.

Are you talking to me?

No offence if you removed all I said in the message you replied to due
to any reference to the message I was replying to.

But you do put your credibility on an edge it can not settle too well
on.

(Notwithstanding the fact that any appeal to statistics in fluid
mechanics is asking for a kick in the backside.)

CET: Each year is its own average; each collection of such averages is
a compound mistake. Itso Fatso.

Look for a cause for each individual temperature reading. Or post the
full set of peaks and troughs.

Everything is an approximation. The length of a metre is an
approximation. A second is an approximation. The strengths of
earthquakes, that you constantly subject us to list of, are
approximations. You are an approximation. We all get by on them. Even
you.

PS Did you have a think about the thousands of earthquakes that you
miss in your calculations each day? Now there you're not even using a
decent approximation, W.