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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Saturday.
Issued 0517, 23rd March 2010 The weekend will see low pressure crossing the UK with wind and rain for all. Into next week it'll stay unsettled and on the cool side. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS SW'lies cover the UK, with a low to the north. The winds become SSE'lies tomorrow as a trough moves up from the SW, followed by further SSE'lies on Thursday. Friday sees a trough move northwards over the UK, with easterlies in advance and further SSE'lies following behind. T+120 synopsis http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a weak westerly flow over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a zonal westerly flow, while ECM has an upper low over the UK instead. MetO brings upper NW'lies with a trough to the east, as do GEM and JMA. At the surface, GFS brings a col, with light winds. ECM has a slack trough over the UK, again with light winds for most. MetO has a col over Northern Ireland, Wales and SW England, with strong WSW'lies elsewhere. GEM has NW'lies for all with a trough over Kent and JMA has lighter NW'lies and a low over France. Evolution to T+168 ECM brings a trough over Scotland on day 6. To the north, northerlies; to the south, westerlies. On day 7 the trough remains over Scotland with SW'lies elsewhere. GFS shows a low to the east and NNW'lies for all on day 6. Day 7 sees westerlies as a ridge moves eastwards. Looking further afield ECM shows SW'lies on days 8 to 10 with low pressure to the WNW. GFS brings SW'lies on days 8 and 9 as a low moves eastwards. On day 10 the low brings WNW'lies across the UK as it fills and moves eastwards. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The GEFS shows temperatures not far from average from Friday onwards, albeit with a marked dip in a week's time. ECM ensembles http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif The ECM ensembles show temperatures just below average from the end of the week onwards. |
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