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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0453, 26th March 2010 The latter half of the working week will be cool, windy and unsettled with low pressure never far from the UK. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS Low pressure covers the UK, with NE'lies for Scotland and southerlies elsewhere. Tomorrow a col covers much of the UK as a secondary low lies to the south. Sunday sees SW'lies for most with a low to the north, followed by another col on Monday before a trough moves in from the west. T+120 synopsis http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a marked trough over the UK, with the het heading SE'wards from Greenland to Iberia. At the 500hPa level there's also a trough over the UK. ECM has an upper trough over western areas of the UK, while MetO has an upper col. An upper trough covers the UK with GEM and JMA shows a trough to the west. At the surface, GFS brings strong NW'lies with a low over the North Sea. ECM has a deep low over Englnad and Wales with northerlies and NW'lies moving in from the west. MetO also has a low over England with northerlies and NW'lies spreading eastwards. GEM brings NW'lies for all with a low to the east and JMA has NE'lies with a low to the south. Evolution to T+168 ECM brings strong to gale force NW'lies on day 6 due to a low to the east, followed by further NW'lies and WNW'lies as the low fills on day 7. GFS shows westerlies and WNW'lies on day 6 as a secondary low moves SE'wards. The low deepens over East Anglia on day 7, with NW'lies for England and Wales and SW'lies elsewhere. Looking further afield ECM shows low pressure stalling over the North Sea, with NW'lies as a result on days 8 to 10. GFS brings cold SW'lies on day 8 as low pressure approaches from the west. The low crosses the UK on days 9 and 10, leaving NW'lies in its wake. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The GEFS shows a marked cold spell next week. ECM ensembles http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif The ECM ensembles now show colder weather next weel, followed by a slow return to average. |
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