On Mar 25, 6:00*pm, Nick wrote:
On Mar 25, 5:16*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Mar 25, 4:42*pm, Nick wrote:

For a while now the GFS has consistently been pointing to something
more settled week of April 5th after a northerly. What are opinions on
the likelihood of this, or at least something a bit more "average"
than we've got now, occurring? I ask this as I can take a week's
holiday at some point in the next 3 weeks and that week would be
ideal, but if the weather's as atrocious as now, there'd be no point
and I may as well just keep working!

ECM seems to be consistently the most pessimistic of the two, with no
northerly for next week and no evidence of a transition to a settled
spell over Easter. Obviously the runs for beyond Easter aren't out yet
though.

Thanks,
Nick

It's not showing a settled spell Nick.

Are you sure? Several runs seem to have shown high pressure in the
south for that week, and the others at least suggest something more
"normal" (e.g the 12Z) - good enough for me. I know about not placing
store on one run, but if there's a consistent pattern it must have
some significance presumably?

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I don't see settled on the 5th Nick, as I've actaully forecast now on
the other thread, but there's a possibility of more settled later that
week. There's also a similar possibility of the unsetteld weather
continuing beyond Easter.

The MetO have certainly backed away from their "settled weather in the
first week of April" in the 6-15 day forecast of a couple of days ago.
I said at the time that I had no idea why this foreacast was being
made at the time and I'm not surprised that it has now changed. That
really was an odd one. 6-15 Forecast now:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Mar 2010 to Thursday 8 Apr 2010:
Tuesday will be wet and windy in many parts with the rain heavy and
persistent at times. There is also a risk of the rain turning to snow,
particularly on northern hills, but there is a smaller risk of snow at
lower levels and also further south. The second half of next week will
continue unsettled, with further showers or longer spells of rain,
interspersed with some drier and brighter intervals. The rain turning
to snow on high ground and possibly briefly to lower levels. It will
also be windy at times with temperatures generally a little below
average. The further outlook continues much the same, *although there
are signs that it will become slightly less unsettled and a touch
warmer*.

Updated: 1207 on Thu 25 Mar 2010

I don't know what timings that last part of the last sentence refers
to. I'm assuming it's the end of the first week/start of the second
week of April. Typical 6-15 day precis stuff. The 16-30 day forecast
was also forecasting more settled weather at the start of April for a
while. An inauspicious start to that but no-one can be bothered to
monitor what it says and certainly no-one can remember that accurately
from 2/3 weeks ago when the weather it forecast is actually
happening!. It's usefulness really is nil. It should be scrapped
forthwith.