On Mar 24, 11:53*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
On Mar 24, 8:39*am, Dawlish wrote:

snip - things were getting out of hand!







The discrepency between the two models continues and, if anything,
comes closer to today. *The last two runs of the gfs have really shown
some cold conditions with a persistent northerly starting on Sunday
and lasting right out past 10 days. It's on the cold side of the gfs
mean, but the 00z is not the outlier that the 18z was. Fortunately the
ECM shows a very different, much more progressive outlook with a big
Atlantic depression plaguing us at 10 days. Whichever outcome you
choose, it's not a pretty one, for me!

The MetO are going for a settling down of the weather in the first
week of April and slightly warmer conditions. I have no idea why
that's in the 6-15 day forecast and why they should think that at this
time. Anyone else got a clue?

"UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Mar 2010 to Tuesday 6 Apr 2010:

On Sunday 28th northeastern parts of the UK are expected to start cold
but dry and bright, although locally heavy rain in the south should
spread northwards during the course of the day. The rain may turn to
snow on northern hills, although milder conditions should follow into
southern parts. Thereafter we currently expect conditions to be
generally unsettled across the British Isles with either showers or
longer spells of rain, some of which may be heavy, and there is a
continued risk of snow on northern hills. However, southern areas may
become a bit more settled during the first week of April.
Temperatures, generally a bit colder than average in the north but
closer to average further south, perhaps becoming slightly warmer here
during the first week of April.

Updated: 1619 on Tue 23 Mar 2010"

06z gfs ploughs the same cold and unsettled furrow. It's be
interesting to whether the MetO sticks with its settled start to April
in this lunchtime's 6-15 day update.

I would say that calling "However, southern areas may become a bit more
settled during the first week of April" a "settled start to April" is
putting it rather high. The MetO's forecast is qualified by "southern",
"may" and "a bit".
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I think the operative word in this forecast was "may". The first week
of April is now unlikely to turn out as the MetO were predicting. I
just looks very unsettled out towards Easter with a cold few days in a
northerly to boot. Will's expecting some March snow on Dartmoor and
he'll probably get it.

Possible changes in the week following Easter, but after showing
areement for low pressure domination on April 5th, the ECM and the gfs
operationals have gone.their separate ways at T+240. I would expect
the gfs warmth at 10 days to turn out to be well on the warm side of
the mean and the ECM is playing with high pressure. A very confusing
picture at 10 days.

On Mar 28, 10:43*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 24, 11:53*am, John Hall wrote:





In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
On Mar 24, 8:39*am, Dawlish wrote:

snip - things were getting out of hand!

The discrepency between the two models continues and, if anything,
comes closer to today. *The last two runs of the gfs have really shown
some cold conditions with a persistent northerly starting on Sunday
and lasting right out past 10 days. It's on the cold side of the gfs
mean, but the 00z is not the outlier that the 18z was. Fortunately the
ECM shows a very different, much more progressive outlook with a big
Atlantic depression plaguing us at 10 days. Whichever outcome you
choose, it's not a pretty one, for me!

The MetO are going for a settling down of the weather in the first
week of April and slightly warmer conditions. I have no idea why
that's in the 6-15 day forecast and why they should think that at this
time. Anyone else got a clue?

"UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Mar 2010 to Tuesday 6 Apr 2010:

On Sunday 28th northeastern parts of the UK are expected to start cold
but dry and bright, although locally heavy rain in the south should
spread northwards during the course of the day. The rain may turn to
snow on northern hills, although milder conditions should follow into
southern parts. Thereafter we currently expect conditions to be
generally unsettled across the British Isles with either showers or
longer spells of rain, some of which may be heavy, and there is a
continued risk of snow on northern hills. However, southern areas may
become a bit more settled during the first week of April.
Temperatures, generally a bit colder than average in the north but
closer to average further south, perhaps becoming slightly warmer here
during the first week of April.

Updated: 1619 on Tue 23 Mar 2010"

06z gfs ploughs the same cold and unsettled furrow. It's be
interesting to whether the MetO sticks with its settled start to April
in this lunchtime's 6-15 day update.

I would say that calling "However, southern areas may become a bit more
settled during the first week of April" a "settled start to April" is
putting it rather high. The MetO's forecast is qualified by "southern",
"may" and "a bit".
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I think the operative word in this forecast was "may". The first week
of April is now unlikely to turn out as the MetO were predicting. I
just looks very unsettled out towards Easter with a cold few days in a
northerly to boot. Will's expecting some March snow on Dartmoor and
he'll probably get it.

Possible changes in the week following Easter, but after showing
areement for low pressure domination on April 5th, the ECM and the gfs
operationals have gone.their separate ways at T+240. I would expect
the gfs warmth at 10 days to turn out to be well on the warm side of
the mean and the ECM is playing with high pressure. A very confusing
picture at 10 days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Easter looks a bit of a disappointingly cool washout for many areas,
but further out, both models are now hinting at high pressure a week
later. For the last 24 hours, it has appeared disappeared and
reappeared on the both operational runs (though the warm gfs 06z from
the 6th is a little too far on the warm side of the mean to be
believable, IMO and it has no provenance with consistency from other
runs). It's still interesting and could herald a pattern change
towards 10 days.