On 26 Mar, 10:26, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 24, 4:13*pm, Nick wrote:

The discrepency between the two models continues and, if anything,
comes closer to today. *The last two runs of the gfs have really shown
some cold conditions with a persistent northerly starting on Sunday
and lasting right out past 10 days. It's on the cold side of the gfs
mean, but the 00z is not the outlier that the 18z was. Fortunately the
ECM shows a very different, much more progressive outlook with a big
Atlantic depression plaguing us at 10 days. Whichever outcome you
choose, it's not a pretty one, for me!

Definitely the northerlies from my point of view!
True it'll be colder on paper, but we'll probably get significantly
more sun and less overcast, so the apparent temperature might actually
be a little higher.

Nick

No signs of a settling just yet, Nick, I'm afraid but a Northerly
outbreak and the unsettled theme just rolls on and on. Agreement and
consistency for this now between the gfs and the ECM, with back up
from GEM. It leads to this forecast for 5th April and Easter
generally.

**On Easter Monday April 5th at T+240, the UK will be under cyclonic
conditions. Low pressure will be dominating our weather, leading to
predominantly cloudy, wet, or showery conditions. Any hints of higher
pressure will be in transitory ridges and the SE will do better than
the NW for any sunshine. The lead up to the 5th will have a seen a
short-lived northerly outbreak, with wintry conditions for a time, but
this will have finished by Easter monday and Atlantic lows will again
have crossed the UK. The actual wind directions on the 5th will depend
on the position of the lows. No easterly outbreak and no arctic
northerly at this time, but a lee northerly could be affecting the UK
if a low has moved into the North Sea and any snow on the 5th will be
confined to the hills. Temperatures are likely to be not far removed
from average.**

The forecast is for Easter Monday, but I see an unsettled Easter,
basically, with sunshine at a premium for many.

Good enough from 10 days out? A transitory tidge is just heading east,
pressure is falling again and a low is approaching from the west to
follow Saturday's troughs.

Later this week will hopefully be a different story!