That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240.
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.

Dawlish wrote:
That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240.
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.

Well we have had three weeks of crap weather, about due for a settled
spell now :-)

On Apr 11, 10:23*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled *and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240.
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.

Well we have had three weeks of crap weather, about due for a settled
spell now :-)

18z operational backs the persistence and the gfs ensemble mean shows
very little rainfall out to 2 weeks hence. See what tomorrow's
operationals show.

On Apr 12, 12:38*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 11, 10:23*pm, Adam Lea wrote:

Dawlish wrote:
That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled *and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240..
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.

Well we have had three weeks of crap weather, about due for a settled
spell now :-)

18z operational backs the persistence and the gfs ensemble mean shows
very little rainfall out to 2 weeks hence. See what tomorrow's
operationals show.

Over the last 48 hours, the ECM is as inconsistent at T240 as I've
seen it for some time. The last 4 operational runs have shown such a
difference in pressure regimes over the UK from run to run. However,
other models are showing similarinconsistencies, though the gfs and
GEM agree with the ECM about low pressure approaching from the SW on
the T240 chart! The ensembles show more unsettled weather than they
did last night. It's a case of you pays your money and you takes your
chance at the moment, in 10 days time.

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
Dawlish wrote:
That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240.
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.

Well we have had three weeks of crap weather, about due for a settled
spell now :-)

--------------------
Have we? Been ok here for the last week or so.

Dave, S.Essex

On Apr 12, 8:59*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 12, 12:38*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Apr 11, 10:23*pm, Adam Lea wrote:

Dawlish wrote:
That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled *and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240.
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.

Well we have had three weeks of crap weather, about due for a settled
spell now :-)

18z operational backs the persistence and the gfs ensemble mean shows
very little rainfall out to 2 weeks hence. See what tomorrow's
operationals show.

Over the last 48 hours, the ECM is as inconsistent at T240 as I've
seen it for some time. The last 4 operational runs have shown such a
difference in pressure regimes over the UK from run to run. However,
other models are showing similarinconsistencies, though the gfs and
GEM agree with the ECM about low pressure approaching from the SW on
the T240 chart! The ensembles show more unsettled weather than they
did last night. It's a case of you pays your money and you takes your
chance at the moment, in 10 days time.

ECM now agrees almost perfectly with the gfs sitting an anticyclone
over the UK at 10 days. JMA at T192 really doesn't agree with any of
it!.

Dave Cornwell wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
Dawlish wrote:
That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240.
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.
Well we have had three weeks of crap weather, about due for a settled
spell now :-)

--------------------
Have we? Been ok here for the last week or so.

Dave, S.Essex



Ok I should have had said three weeks of crap weather up to and
including the bank holiday weekend.

On Apr 13, 8:08*am, Adam Lea wrote:
Dave Cornwell wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
Dawlish wrote:
That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled *and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240..
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.
Well we have had three weeks of crap weather, about due for a settled
spell now :-)

--------------------
Have we? Been ok here for the last week or so.

Dave, S.Essex

Ok I should have had said three weeks of crap weather up to and
including the bank holiday weekend.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Looking colder in the short term for sure, but at 10 days, I don't
think any model has covered itself in glory, predicting the possible
conditions - especially the ECM, which has shown high pressure, low
pressure and now a continuing northerly at 10 days. At 3-8 days, it
shows a continuing northerly, intensifying at times, as a low develops
and moves into the North Sea, with some strong, cold winds for
Scotland and wintry showers in its wake. Much better in the south but
only warm if you get out of the wind. I think that's a believable
scenario to 8 days and there is tacit agreement from the gfs
operational this morning for a northerly still at 10 days, but there
just isn't the consistency to be confident enough to forecast that.

Dusting off the gold(!) clubs again this morning The weather on the
slopes of Dartmoor (Teign Valley) looks cool, breezy, but thankfully
dry. Maybe some sunshine later. The course should be dry.

your consistently ****ing boring

hows your web****e?


Dawlish wrote:

just isn't the consistency to be confident enough to forecast that.

Dusting off the gold(!) clubs again this morning The weather on the
slopes of Dartmoor (Teign Valley) looks cool, breezy, but thankfully
dry. Maybe some sunshine later. The course should be dry.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

On Apr 14, 10:01*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 13, 8:08*am, Adam Lea wrote:





Dave Cornwell wrote:
"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
Dawlish wrote:
That's quite a change between the 00z ECM showing very unsettled *and
cool conditions at T240 and the 12z which shows high pressure at T240.
The gfs is showing the same. We could be looking at a dry month.
Well we have had three weeks of crap weather, about due for a settled
spell now :-)

--------------------
Have we? Been ok here for the last week or so.

Dave, S.Essex

Ok I should have had said three weeks of crap weather up to and
including the bank holiday weekend.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Looking colder in the short term for sure, but at 10 days, I don't
think any model has covered itself in glory, predicting the possible
conditions - especially the ECM, which has shown high pressure, low
pressure and now a continuing northerly at 10 days. At 3-8 days, it
shows a continuing northerly, intensifying at times, as a low develops
and moves into the North Sea, with some strong, cold winds for
Scotland and wintry showers in its wake. Much better in the south but
only warm if you get out of the wind. I think that's a believable
scenario to 8 days and there is tacit agreement from the gfs
operational this morning for a northerly still at 10 days, but there
just isn't the consistency to be confident enough to forecast that.

Dusting off the gold(!) clubs again this morning The weather on the
slopes of Dartmoor (Teign Valley) looks cool, breezy, but thankfully
dry. Maybe some sunshine later. The course should be dry.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Cool and dry yesterday. A thermal vest really helped!

Looking very different at T240 this morning. After sitting in the
Atlantic for a week, and moving ash clouds our way, this high looks
like it may leave us alone. What it's replaced by - no idea. A mild
SW flow shows on the gfs, but that's a newbie and there's no agreement
with the ECM.