"TT" wrote in message
...
another bigoted view.
cant face facts your last one was howler of epic proportions.

Dawlish wrote:

Nothing in today's models to make me have doubts about this forecast.
Both the gfs and the ECM show northerlies out to T240 from this
weekend. Still a long way to go though.

I think it's fair to say that some people aren't free thinkers in fact
they are a little bit scared to come up with their own opinions and if they
do but they think it may not fit into the status quo; so they then cower and
shut up

On Apr 29, 10:22*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"TT" wrote in message

...

another bigoted view.
cant face facts your last one was howler of epic proportions.

Dawlish wrote:

Nothing in today's models to make me have doubts about this forecast.
Both the gfs and the ECM show northerlies out to T240 from this
weekend. Still a long way to go though.

I think it's fair to say that some people *aren't *free thinkers in fact
they are a little bit scared to come up with their own opinions and if they
do but they think it may not fit into the status quo; so they then cower and
shut up

As the jet heads south again, the winds will turn northerly at the
weekend and it looks like we've got a week of them at least. Some
changes may be afoot at T240 though as the 00z ECM shows the Atlantic
high drifting further north to sit over iceland, though that's not
reflected in the gfs 00z operational. Shouldn't be too bad for many,
all week, clear air, good cloudscapes, perhaps some morning dust on
the car, but the temperatures will be disappointing after this
magnificent spring weather of the last 3 weeks.

On Apr 30, 7:18*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 29, 10:22*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:



"TT" wrote in message

...

another bigoted view.
cant face facts your last one was howler of epic proportions.

Dawlish wrote:

Nothing in today's models to make me have doubts about this forecast..
Both the gfs and the ECM show northerlies out to T240 from this
weekend. Still a long way to go though.

I think it's fair to say that some people *aren't *free thinkers in fact
they are a little bit scared to come up with their own opinions and if they
do but they think it may not fit into the status quo; so they then cower and
shut up

As the jet heads south again, the winds will turn northerly at the
weekend and it looks like we've got a week of them at least. Some
changes may be afoot at T240 though as the 00z ECM shows the Atlantic
high drifting further north to sit over iceland, though that's not
reflected in the gfs 00z operational. *Shouldn't be too bad for many,
all week, clear air, good cloudscapes, perhaps some morning dust on
the car, but the temperatures will be disappointing after this
magnificent spring weather of the last 3 weeks.

I think it's only really been this week though that the temperatures
have been significantly above average: the main thing of the last two
weeks was the almost continuous sunshine (which was very nice) rather
than the temperature, with many days only at about average. This week
has been warmer but a lot cloudier, with only Tuesday being notably
sunny (though on the other hand only Thursday was notably cloudy).

What do people make of this tendency for a low to form over Germany
around Thursday next week? Is this close enough to produce something
other than the predicted "classic northerly" weather?

Nick

On Apr 30, 8:31*am, Nick wrote:
On Apr 30, 7:18*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Apr 29, 10:22*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"TT" wrote in message

...

another bigoted view.
cant face facts your last one was howler of epic proportions.

Dawlish wrote:

Nothing in today's models to make me have doubts about this forecast.
Both the gfs and the ECM show northerlies out to T240 from this
weekend. Still a long way to go though.

I think it's fair to say that some people *aren't *free thinkers in fact
they are a little bit scared to come up with their own opinions and if they
do but they think it may not fit into the status quo; so they then cower and
shut up

As the jet heads south again, the winds will turn northerly at the
weekend and it looks like we've got a week of them at least. Some
changes may be afoot at T240 though as the 00z ECM shows the Atlantic
high drifting further north to sit over iceland, though that's not
reflected in the gfs 00z operational. *Shouldn't be too bad for many,
all week, clear air, good cloudscapes, perhaps some morning dust on
the car, but the temperatures will be disappointing after this
magnificent spring weather of the last 3 weeks.

I think it's only really been this week though that the temperatures
have been significantly above average: the main thing of the last two
weeks was the almost continuous sunshine (which was very nice) rather
than the temperature, with many days only at about average. This week
has been warmer but a lot cloudier, with only Tuesday being notably
sunny (though on the other hand only Thursday was notably cloudy).

What do people make of this tendency for a low to form over Germany
around Thursday next week? Is this close enough to produce something
other than the predicted "classic northerly" weather?

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

True, Nick. It was the daytime temps which were above average, I
think. Clear skies allowed the nights to cool and brought the diurnal
mean down.

The low could bring some rain for the SE Nick, but it looks like
northerlies will re-establish themselves afterwards.

On Apr 28, 8:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 28, 1:08*pm, Dawlish wrote:

After today's warmth, it's looking likely that a much cooler spell of
northerlies will afflict us. Again, once high pressure gets
established, as one will almost certainly do in the western Atlantic
over the next few days, they can be awfully difficult to shift.

Presently, there's good agreement between the ECM and the gfs that a
notherly flow will set in from the weekend and it could be still there
the following weekend. Generally dry and cool for many, is the most
likely result, but there may be rain in the east and snow showers over
the Scottish hills. Get out of the wind in the west and there's likely
to be some pleasant enough and mainly dry weather.

Northerlies it is! Enough agreement and consistency from both models:

**At T240, on Saturday, 8th May, the UK will be at the end of a week
of an airflow with a northerly component. The cause will be an area of
high pressure which will become anchored in the Atlantic to our west.
Ridges, extending eastwards from that anticyclone and sublte changes
in its position will mean that wind directions over the UK will vary
over the next week, but will be mainly between NW and NE at T240. The
notherly component will be producing dry weather in the south and SW,
but may be producing spells of rain in the N, NW and down the east
coast. The rain may well fall as snow at times over the Scottish
mountains during the coming week. *Temperatures will be generally
below average over the UK next saturday, but it will feel pleasant,
out of the wind, in any sunshine. **

A cooler spell of weather coming up, starting this weekend and lasting
at least a week.

On Apr 28, 8:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 28, 1:08*pm, Dawlish wrote:

After today's warmth, it's looking likely that a much cooler spell of
northerlies will afflict us. Again, once high pressure gets
established, as one will almost certainly do in the western Atlantic
over the next few days, they can be awfully difficult to shift.

Presently, there's good agreement between the ECM and the gfs that a
notherly flow will set in from the weekend and it could be still there
the following weekend. Generally dry and cool for many, is the most
likely result, but there may be rain in the east and snow showers over
the Scottish hills. Get out of the wind in the west and there's likely
to be some pleasant enough and mainly dry weather.

Northerlies it is! Enough agreement and consistency from both models:

**At T240, on Saturday, 8th May, the UK will be at the end of a week
of an airflow with a northerly component. The cause will be an area of
high pressure which will become anchored in the Atlantic to our west.
Ridges, extending eastwards from that anticyclone and sublte changes
in its position will mean that wind directions over the UK will vary
over the next week, but will be mainly between NW and NE at T240. The
notherly component will be producing dry weather in the south and SW,
but may be producing spells of rain in the N, NW and down the east
coast. The rain may well fall as snow at times over the Scottish
mountains during the coming week. *Temperatures will be generally
below average over the UK next saturday, but it will feel pleasant,
out of the wind, in any sunshine. **

A cooler spell of weather coming up, starting this weekend and lasting
at least a week.

I don't think there's a great deal wrong with this one. The High has
migrated a little further north than I'd forecast, but wind directions
all week have had a northerly component due to that Atlantic high and
that's true of today, where nearly every part of the UK has winds
between N and NE. We do have some drizzly patches of rain in Wales and
the SW of England, though we've see the sun on occasions this morning
and when it has poked through it has been warmer, but the NW of the UK
is sunny and dry and the cloud is thicker in the east with more patchy
rain there. Temperatures are down on average for the time of year and
the cooler flow, with the northerly compnent, looks like it will
extend into early next week.

Good enough from 10 days out?

On Sat, 8 May 2010 04:53:29 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

Good enough from 10 days out?

Everyone is moaning about this now , here in Dorset

R

On May 9, 9:15*am, Robin Nicholson
,uk wrote:
On Sat, 8 May 2010 04:53:29 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

Good enough from 10 days out?

Everyone is moaning about this now , here in Dorset

R

I wish you all a lengthy spell of warm and sunny weather. In this part
of the world we've had a good share of both for the time of year but
can't donate any.