Either the El Nino is close to ending (NOAA monday update), or ended
(Aussie BOM fortnightly "Wrap-up"). There's now a decent chance that
we'll see a quick transition to La Nina conditions before the year
end. That occurs quite often. Aussie BOM puts it at 40% on a
historical view. The changes in the models have been quite rapid over
this month and I personally think we'll see La Nina conditions by the
year end.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

It will be interesting to see the effect that this well-predicted fall-
off in SSTs in the equatorial Pacific has on global temperatures
through the year. I expect June 2009 - May 2010 to be the warmest 12-
month period on record, but global temperatures are already starting
to decline from the record-breaking boreal winter/spring levels
(though, it must be noted, they are still high).

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem....csh?amsutemps

El Nino finishing?


It was a lousy musical anyway.





"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Either the El Nino is close to ending (NOAA monday update), or ended
(Aussie BOM fortnightly "Wrap-up"). There's now a decent chance that
we'll see a quick transition to La Nina conditions before the year
end. That occurs quite often. Aussie BOM puts it at 40% on a
historical view. The changes in the models have been quite rapid over
this month and I personally think we'll see La Nina conditions by the
year end.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

It will be interesting to see the effect that this well-predicted fall-
off in SSTs in the equatorial Pacific has on global temperatures
through the year. I expect June 2009 - May 2010 to be the warmest 12-
month period on record, but global temperatures are already starting
to decline from the record-breaking boreal winter/spring levels
(though, it must be noted, they are still high).

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem....csh?amsutemps