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#1
June 5th 10, 06:25 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Whats the point of forecasts that dont turn out to be correct ?
The probability of correct forecasting is something that has been rattling around in my head for a while. If on Day 1 of a 5 day forecast I'm told Rain is on the way only for this forecast to change between rain/dry (for example) over the next three days and then its actually dry on day 5, the forecast on day 1 was utterly worthless. What probability of a likely event happening triggers it becoming a 'forecast'. Surely it needs to be 75% likely as that would mean it is twice as likely to happen, as not. Also why is that probabilty of a forecast never mentioned on tv/radio/ media forecasts. Is it because Jo Public has dumbed down so much over the last few years that he has no concept what Porbability is? |
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