That is why I am still going for long extended dry spells this summer. OK
that is more for England and Wales than Scotland and NI but I still fancy
it will hold good as the ascending moist air continues to get forced
northwards. No proper rain down here as you know for weeks now and I
cannot see much in the future either (apart from one or two storms or the
odd cold front if we are lucky).

Will

I've noticed that for quite a while this spring/summer that the models have
over-stated any rainfall and have been pessimistic in their forecast,
predicting low pressure systems further south and east than they actually
end up coming.

I am presuming then, that this pattern is likely to continue for the rest of
the summer?

Do you think that the Azores High will strongly build back further north
towards us as we go through the 2nd half of July and into August? It often
has in the past and Lamb referred to it in the English Climate as doing so
(he says that the Jet Stream often moves a little northwards after reaching
its lowest position in early July). Haven't got the book to hand so I cannot
double-check.
_____________________
Nick
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

"Will Hand" wrote in message
news:0%mZn.103917$vB5.93637@hurricane...
Hi Paul, do you consider upper air forcing, ageostrophic effects etc in
the upper air when you try and put weather to the surface charts?

This does not mean it will be high pressure but you
don't need high pressure for it to be predominantly dry, just the right
upper air patterns to produce the ageostrophic effects that will produce
descent as opposed to ascent.

Ciao,

Will
--

"Nick Gardner" wrote in message
...
That is why I am still going for long extended dry spells this summer. OK
that is more for England and Wales than Scotland and NI but I still fancy
it will hold good as the ascending moist air continues to get forced
northwards. No proper rain down here as you know for weeks now and I
cannot see much in the future either (apart from one or two storms or the
odd cold front if we are lucky).

Will

I've noticed that for quite a while this spring/summer that the models
have over-stated any rainfall and have been pessimistic in their forecast,
predicting low pressure systems further south and east than they actually
end up coming.


He he I know and they have been fooling a lot of people who rely on just
using models to forecast!

Having said that I'm going for a bit of rain midweek down here, more up
north, and windy at times too, but then after that I'm expecting the Azores
high to ridge north in the Atlantic due to a change in the long wave
pattern. The high should then topple and bring the UK a long fine and
settled spell but without record breaking heat in the UK, something I have
said all along this summer.

Cheers,

Will
--

pattern. The high should then topple and bring the UK a long fine and
settled spell but without record breaking heat in the UK, something I have
said all along this summer.

That sounds good to me Will.

The outlaws are coming over for a couple of weeks near the end of July and I
was hoping for some good weather this time. Last year wasn't bad but it was
often cloudy which spoilt the days on the beach.
_____________________
Nick
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

"Nick Gardner" wrote in message
...
pattern. The high should then topple and bring the UK a long fine and
settled spell but without record breaking heat in the UK, something I
have said all along this summer.

That sounds good to me Will.

The outlaws are coming over for a couple of weeks near the end of July and
I was hoping for some good weather this time. Last year wasn't bad but it
was often cloudy which spoilt the days on the beach.
_____________________

No problem Nick, anytime you need a forecast just ask!

Be nice to the outlaws :-)

Will
--

On Jul 8, 11:51*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 4, 9:50*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jul 4, 8:45*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On Jul 4, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:

It's not looking good as July progresses. the charts are looking more
and more unsettled and I feel I can now extend my forecast of more
unsettled weather out to the 14th. The gfs, ECM, GEM and the JMA to
(T192) are in full agreement and the gfs and the ECM have been very
consistent about this for days.

**at T240, on 14th June, the UK will be experiencing an unsettled
spell of weather, dominated by low pressure. All areas will be under
threat of rain, though the NW will be the wettest area and any warmth
at this time and in the week previous, will be provided by warm air
drawn northwards by approaching Atlantic lows and not by dominant
ridging of the Azores high. Pressure will be lower to the north, or NW
and the only area that could be experiencing pressure 1020mb in 10
days time will be the far SE, if any is at all. Winds will be between
S and NW over much of the UK**

I'm not buying this dry and settled weather, at least not for the
first half of July.

Hi Dawlish,

I just posted El Niño/La Niña, but I think GFS is an outlier for
the July breakdown scenario, especially for us down south.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Outlier? Are you sure? Have you seen the last 8 runs of the gfs, the
ECM 12z, the GEM 12z and the JMA 12z? Also, the gfs ensembles show
that the 12z is anything *but* an outlier at T+240.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

I wish it was an outlier Keith and I wish the 12z ECM showed a more
encouraging scenario! The breakdown has already begun. I want sun and
more sun no matter what the present NWP output shows!!! (pouts,
screams and kicks arms and legs a lot!)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'm still happy about this forecast, 4 days in and for the one that
achieves outcome tomorrow. The pattern has changed, at least for a
while and I can't understand the MetO sticking rigidly to this
forecast:

"Outlook for Thursday 22 Jul 2010 to Thursday 5 Aug 2010:
There are indications that there may be a good deal of dry and warm
weather during the second half of July and into the start of August,
with many places seeing temperatures above normal for much of the
period. Some areas will be drier than normal with average or below
average rainfall, although more unsettled conditions may well persist
for longer in western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Sunshine amounts
look to be around normal for this time of year across Northern Ireland
and Scotland, but are likely to be somewhat above average in England
and Wales.

Updated: 1224 on Wed 7 Jul 2010"

It could change back, of course, but I'd love to know the present
reasoning behind keeping this current 2-4 week forecast, which has sat
there, in one form, or another, only altering the date, throughout the
model changes of the last 10 days. I think it will change soon. Maybe
someone's just forgotten about it? That would reflect the MetO's
forecast priority list for sure - and they are probably absolutely
right in their priorities. No-one can forecast at 2-4 weeks, or
seasonally, with any expectation of high accuracy, IMO. The Met Office
know that very well.

I'm really hoping the forecasts of a long, hot, dry summer prove to be
right, but a summer dominated by the Azores high will have to see
quite a change in the present model conditions to leave us with
memories of droughts!

Still got my fingers crossed for 90F this weekend somewhere in the
SE. * 8)) * *I wonder just how warm it will get for Colin in Brussels?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The forecast for 2-4 weeks is changing a little. Mainly because the
6-15 day forecast is beginning to realise that it is likely to become
more unsetteld for most:

2-4 weeks:

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Jul 2010 to Saturday 7 Aug 2010:
The warm theme is expected to continue in southern parts of the UK,
with much of England and Wales seeing temperatures above average.
Scotland, Northern Ireland and, at times, northeast England are likely
to experience temperatures closer to normal. Sunshine amounts seem
likely to be around average for the time of year and rainfall totals
should also be generally near normal, though Scotland may turn out to
be slightly wetter at times.

6-15 day:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Jul 2010 to Friday 23 Jul 2010:
An unsettled start to the period across the UK, with most places
seeing rain at times. This will be most persistent and locally heavy
in northern and western parts of the UK and it will also be windy here
with a risk of gales in exposed northwestern areas. The best of the
drier interludes during this time will be in the southeastern section
of the UK. Over the weekend and the following week, it will remain
unsettled and often windy in the northern half of the UK, but southern
areas will become generally drier and warmer. Temperatures throughout
the period are likely to be around normal in the north, though feeling
cool in rain, but warm in the south and locally very warm in some
southeastern areas.

Updated: 1202 on Fri 9 Jul 2010

Still likely to be pretty warm (and mainly dry) in the SE though. I'm
sure there will soon be talk of water restrictions there.

On Jul 4, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:
It's not looking good as July progresses. the charts are looking more
and more unsettled and I feel I can now extend my forecast of more
unsettled weather out to the 14th. The gfs, ECM, GEM and the JMA to
(T192) are in full agreement and the gfs and the ECM have been very
consistent about this for days.

**at T240, on 14th June, the UK will be experiencing an unsettled
spell of weather, dominated by low pressure. All areas will be under
threat of rain, though the NW will be the wettest area and any warmth
at this time and in the week previous, will be provided by warm air
drawn northwards by approaching Atlantic lows and not by dominant
ridging of the Azores high. Pressure will be lower to the north, or NW
and the only area that could be experiencing pressure 1020mb in 10
days time will be the far SE, if any is at all. Winds will be between
S and NW over much of the UK**

I'm not buying this dry and settled weather, at least not for the
first half of July.

The gfs, unfortunately, wasn't an outlier Keith and whatever other
effects I should have considered haven't produced dry and settled
weather Will! 8)) The MetO 2-4 week forecast, from a week ago, by
the look of today's models appears to have been a tea break fantasy
(which I've often said it is.......!)

It's autumnal in some parts of the North today! Very unsettled; rain
for many through the day, windy, with perhaps, the longed for thunder
for some and more to come before it settes down nicely for the
weekend........before returning to the unsettled theme next week. This
forecast was good. 69 correct out of 87 forecasts = 79.3%

I'm not buying into the dry and settled weather for most of the second
half of July either!

what a pile of ****

come on then, explain why your better than that supercomputer in exeter
why dont you? give us some stats.

you obviously are full of hot air, cos of those bouys hanging around
your arse no doubt.


On 14/07/2010 8:01 AM, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 4, 8:15 pm, wrote:

69 correct out of 87 forecasts = 79.3%