It's not looking good as July progresses. the charts are looking more
and more unsettled and I feel I can now extend my forecast of more
unsettled weather out to the 14th. The gfs, ECM, GEM and the JMA to
(T192) are in full agreement and the gfs and the ECM have been very
consistent about this for days.

**at T240, on 14th June, the UK will be experiencing an unsettled
spell of weather, dominated by low pressure. All areas will be under
threat of rain, though the NW will be the wettest area and any warmth
at this time and in the week previous, will be provided by warm air
drawn northwards by approaching Atlantic lows and not by dominant
ridging of the Azores high. Pressure will be lower to the north, or NW
and the only area that could be experiencing pressure 1020mb in 10
days time will be the far SE, if any is at all. Winds will be between
S and NW over much of the UK**

I'm not buying this dry and settled weather, at least not for the
first half of July.

On Jul 4, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:
It's not looking good as July progresses. the charts are looking more
and more unsettled and I feel I can now extend my forecast of more
unsettled weather out to the 14th. The gfs, ECM, GEM and the JMA to
(T192) are in full agreement and the gfs and the ECM have been very
consistent about this for days.

**at T240, on 14th June, the UK will be experiencing an unsettled
spell of weather, dominated by low pressure. All areas will be under
threat of rain, though the NW will be the wettest area and any warmth
at this time and in the week previous, will be provided by warm air
drawn northwards by approaching Atlantic lows and not by dominant
ridging of the Azores high. Pressure will be lower to the north, or NW
and the only area that could be experiencing pressure 1020mb in 10
days time will be the far SE, if any is at all. Winds will be between
S and NW over much of the UK**

I'm not buying this dry and settled weather, at least not for the
first half of July.

Hi Dawlish,

I just posted El Niño/La Niña, but I think GFS is an outlier for
the July breakdown scenario, especially for us down south.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On Jul 4, 8:45*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Jul 4, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:





It's not looking good as July progresses. the charts are looking more
and more unsettled and I feel I can now extend my forecast of more
unsettled weather out to the 14th. The gfs, ECM, GEM and the JMA to
(T192) are in full agreement and the gfs and the ECM have been very
consistent about this for days.

**at T240, on 14th June, the UK will be experiencing an unsettled
spell of weather, dominated by low pressure. All areas will be under
threat of rain, though the NW will be the wettest area and any warmth
at this time and in the week previous, will be provided by warm air
drawn northwards by approaching Atlantic lows and not by dominant
ridging of the Azores high. Pressure will be lower to the north, or NW
and the only area that could be experiencing pressure 1020mb in 10
days time will be the far SE, if any is at all. Winds will be between
S and NW over much of the UK**

I'm not buying this dry and settled weather, at least not for the
first half of July.

Hi Dawlish,

I just posted El Niño/La Niña, but I think GFS is an outlier for
the July breakdown scenario, especially for us down south.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Outlier? Are you sure? Have you seen the last 8 runs of the gfs, the
ECM 12z, the GEM 12z and the JMA 12z? Also, the gfs ensembles show
that the 12z is anything *but* an outlier at T+240.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

I wish it was an outlier Keith and I wish the 12z ECM showed a more
encouraging scenario! The breakdown has already begun. I want sun and
more sun no matter what the present NWP output shows!!! (pouts,
screams and kicks arms and legs a lot!)

On Jul 4, 9:50*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 4, 8:45*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:





On Jul 4, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:

It's not looking good as July progresses. the charts are looking more
and more unsettled and I feel I can now extend my forecast of more
unsettled weather out to the 14th. The gfs, ECM, GEM and the JMA to
(T192) are in full agreement and the gfs and the ECM have been very
consistent about this for days.

**at T240, on 14th June, the UK will be experiencing an unsettled
spell of weather, dominated by low pressure. All areas will be under
threat of rain, though the NW will be the wettest area and any warmth
at this time and in the week previous, will be provided by warm air
drawn northwards by approaching Atlantic lows and not by dominant
ridging of the Azores high. Pressure will be lower to the north, or NW
and the only area that could be experiencing pressure 1020mb in 10
days time will be the far SE, if any is at all. Winds will be between
S and NW over much of the UK**

I'm not buying this dry and settled weather, at least not for the
first half of July.

Hi Dawlish,

I just posted El Niño/La Niña, but I think GFS is an outlier for
the July breakdown scenario, especially for us down south.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Outlier? Are you sure? Have you seen the last 8 runs of the gfs, the
ECM 12z, the GEM 12z and the JMA 12z? Also, the gfs ensembles show
that the 12z is anything *but* an outlier at T+240.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

I wish it was an outlier Keith and I wish the 12z ECM showed a more
encouraging scenario! The breakdown has already begun. I want sun and
more sun no matter what the present NWP output shows!!! (pouts,
screams and kicks arms and legs a lot!)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'm still happy about this forecast, 4 days in and for the one that
achieves outcome tomorrow. The pattern has changed, at least for a
while and I can't understand the MetO sticking rigidly to this
forecast:

"Outlook for Thursday 22 Jul 2010 to Thursday 5 Aug 2010:
There are indications that there may be a good deal of dry and warm
weather during the second half of July and into the start of August,
with many places seeing temperatures above normal for much of the
period. Some areas will be drier than normal with average or below
average rainfall, although more unsettled conditions may well persist
for longer in western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Sunshine amounts
look to be around normal for this time of year across Northern Ireland
and Scotland, but are likely to be somewhat above average in England
and Wales.

Updated: 1224 on Wed 7 Jul 2010"

It could change back, of course, but I'd love to know the present
reasoning behind keeping this current 2-4 week forecast, which has sat
there, in one form, or another, only altering the date, throughout the
model changes of the last 10 days. I think it will change soon. Maybe
someone's just forgotten about it? That would reflect the MetO's
forecast priority list for sure - and they are probably absolutely
right in their priorities. No-one can forecast at 2-4 weeks, or
seasonally, with any expectation of high accuracy, IMO. The Met Office
know that very well.

I'm really hoping the forecasts of a long, hot, dry summer prove to be
right, but a summer dominated by the Azores high will have to see
quite a change in the present model conditions to leave us with
memories of droughts!

Still got my fingers crossed for 90F this weekend somewhere in the
SE. 8)) I wonder just how warm it will get for Colin in Brussels?

On 8 juil, 12:51, Dawlish wrote:
I wonder just how warm it will get for Colin in Brussels?

29°C at Brussels Airport just now http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/EBBR.html

Brilliant hot sunshine. 32°C expected tomorrow and 33°C over the
weekend http://www.meteo.be/meteo/view/en/211772-Forecasts.html

Colin Youngs
Brussels

On Jul 8, 12:08*pm, Colin Youngs wrote:
On 8 juil, 12:51, Dawlish wrote:

I wonder just how warm it will get for Colin in Brussels?

29°C at Brussels Airport just now *http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/EBBR.html

Brilliant hot sunshine. * 32°C expected tomorrow and 33°C over the
weekend * *http://www.meteo.be/meteo/view/en/211772-Forecasts.html

Colin Youngs
Brussels

I know. 35 is not out of the question, beating your previous 2010
high! (100F? No, surely not!)

On Jul 8, 11:08*am, Colin Youngs wrote:
On 8 juil, 12:51, Dawlish wrote:

I wonder just how warm it will get for Colin in Brussels?

29°C at Brussels Airport just now *http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/EBBR.html

Brilliant hot sunshine. * 32°C expected tomorrow and 33°C over the
weekend * *http://www.meteo.be/meteo/view/en/211772-Forecasts.html

Colin Youngs
Brussels

I've heard that they have been experiencing record temperatures in
Switzerland. Does anyone have more details and whether they are all
time records?

Cheers, Alastair.

Hi Paul, do you consider upper air forcing, ageostrophic effects etc in the
upper air when you try and put weather to the surface charts?

That is why I am still going for long extended dry spells this summer. OK
that is more for England and Wales than Scotland and NI but I still fancy it
will hold good as the ascending moist air continues to get forced
northwards. No proper rain down here as you know for weeks now and I cannot
see much in the future either (apart from one or two storms or the odd cold
front if we are lucky). This does not mean it will be high pressure but you
don't need high pressure for it to be predominantly dry, just the right
upper air patterns to produce the ageostrophic effects that will produce
descent as opposed to ascent.

Ciao,

Will
--

On Jul 8, 5:26*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Hi Paul, do you consider upper air forcing, ageostrophic effects etc in the
upper air when you try and put weather to the surface charts?

That is why I am still going for long extended dry spells this summer. OK
that is more for England and Wales than Scotland and NI but I still fancy it
will hold good as the ascending moist air continues to get forced
northwards. No proper rain down here as you know for weeks now and I cannot
see much in the future either (apart from one or two storms or the odd cold
front if we are lucky). This does not mean it will be high pressure but you
don't need high pressure for it to be predominantly dry, just the right
upper air patterns to produce the ageostrophic effects that will produce
descent as opposed to ascent.

Ciao,

Will
--

I understand the basics Will, but nothing like as much as a desk
forecaster. The meteorology degree and post grad qualifications in
meteorolgy are missing and I bow to your far superior knowledge! *))
However there's no need for those kind of dynamics for forecasting
from the models, as I do, through agreement and consistency at 10-
days. Further out than 10 days you are pretty much in cloud-cuckoo
land anyway. I've learned to trust outcome success statistics and
nothing else, to judge how good a forecaster/forecasts are. The MetO
success stats are opaque here; not clearly published and the MetO's
lack of focus at 10 days+ and the abandonment of seasonal forecasting
for the general public illustrates the difficulties. If some
techniques were successful at 10 days, the MetO and others, would be
able to demonstrate good outcome percentage success. I wish they
could.

bull**** cop out

you got it wrong gravy

your summer lrf is wrong

now bugger off



On 08/07/2010 7:42 PM, Dawlish wrote:

I understand the basics Will, but nothing like as much as a desk
forecaster. The meteorology degree and post grad qualifications in
meteorolgy are missing and I bow to your far superior knowledge! *))
However there's no need for those kind of dynamics for forecasting
from the models, as I do, through agreement and consistency at 10-
days. Further out than 10 days you are pretty much in cloud-cuckoo
land anyway. I've learned to trust outcome success statistics and
nothing else, to judge how good a forecaster/forecasts are. The MetO
success stats are opaque here; not clearly published and the MetO's
lack of focus at 10 days+ and the abandonment of seasonal forecasting
for the general public illustrates the difficulties. If some
techniques were successful at 10 days, the MetO and others, would be
able to demonstrate good outcome percentage success. I wish they
could.