Superb this morning. Sunny and mild, but increasing cloud brought rain
to Torbay before 12, as the high pressure was shunted away east by
Atlantic weather - a day early for my forecast, but you can't win them
all. That's the end of the good weather for a while down here. The
rest of the day was a dreary, drizzly, wet affair.

Nothing but unsettled, changeable and perhaps stormy weather on the
models. See what the ECM says tonight and that may well translate into
a forecast for the start of the second week in October.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Superb this morning. Sunny and mild, but increasing cloud brought rain
to Torbay before 12, as the high pressure was shunted away east by
Atlantic weather - a day early for my forecast, but you can't win them
all. That's the end of the good weather for a while down here. The
rest of the day was a dreary, drizzly, wet affair.

Nothing but unsettled, changeable and perhaps stormy weather on the
models. See what the ECM says tonight and that may well translate into
a forecast for the start of the second week in October.


He he, well I think the *good and exciting* weather is just starting. I
predicted a mild and wet autumn and the main roller coaster is about to
start. Next week looks like the jet will strengthen at around 51N (not far
from the 52N mean position I expected). With the tight jet and confluent
troughing the ingredients are there for some rapid low developments in the
shortwaves. Some Met Office ensemble members (not available publicly) indeed
went for some very interesting scenarios but confidence is high with low
Shannon entropy so I predict a forecast from Dawlish pretty soon now :-)

COME ON! (not you Paul :-)), the weather of course.

Excited cheers,

Will
--

On Tue, 28 Sep 2010 18:46:29 +0100, "Will Hand"
wrote:



COME ON! (not you Paul :-)), the weather of course.

Well of course, bang on timing as I am due for a spot of caving on
Sunday. The amount of rain falling could be important!

R

On Sep 28, 6:19*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Superb this morning. Sunny and mild, but increasing cloud brought rain
to Torbay before 12, as the high pressure was shunted away east by
Atlantic weather - a day early for my forecast, but you can't win them
all. That's the end of the good weather for a while down here. The
rest of the day was a dreary, drizzly, wet affair.

Nothing but unsettled, changeable and perhaps stormy weather on the
models. See what the ECM says tonight and that may well translate into
a forecast for the start of the second week in October.

Actually wrong for South Devon in general Paul.
Heavy drizzle/rain nearly all the morning here giving about 5 mm.
This I believe was not well forecast.
Light drizzle in the afternoon and dismal and cloudy all day.

I can share Will's excitment at the coming baroclinicity, as long as
it does not last too long.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

On Sep 28, 7:46*pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Sep 28, 6:19*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Superb this morning. Sunny and mild, but increasing cloud brought rain
to Torbay before 12, as the high pressure was shunted away east by
Atlantic weather - a day early for my forecast, but you can't win them
all. That's the end of the good weather for a while down here. The
rest of the day was a dreary, drizzly, wet affair.

Nothing but unsettled, changeable and perhaps stormy weather on the
models. See what the ECM says tonight and that may well translate into
a forecast for the start of the second week in October.

Actually wrong for South Devon in general Paul.
Heavy drizzle/rain nearly all the morning here giving about 5 mm.
This I believe was not well forecast.
Light drizzle in the afternoon and dismal and cloudy all day.

I can share Will's excitment at the coming baroclinicity, as long as
it does not last too long.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

It got to you before it got to me Len. On reflection, I should have
been more specific and said "Torbay".