didnt paddypower or wikipedia help you then?

mr armchair wannabe forecaster?

3:30 at market hayworth




On 29/09/2010 8:58 PM, Dawlish wrote:
uoted text -

Ah, Mea Culpa. I've just realised my elementary and ridiculous
mistake. Apologies Will, even my poor, undergraduate knowledge of
dynamics should not allow such a mistake. Sorry. my fault. Rossby
waves propogate westwards, not eastwards, as I well knew, but the
difference between west and east was temporarily beyond me. A man
admits to his mistakes. Sorry.

On 28 Sep, 20:42, Dawlish wrote:
That fulfils my crteria for a 10-day forecast. 10 days of unsettled,
wet and windy weather to come, at least, for most of the UK.

**At T240, on 8th October, the UK will be in a period of generally
wet, potentially windy and very unsettled weather. No real cold and
very few frosts, as the wind directions will have been S-SW for much
of the preceeding period and will be from the Atlantic on the 8th.


Up to that point, yes. But I'm now minded to speculate whether the wet
period will be out of the way for much of the country by your date,
October 8. Westwards extension of the HP over Finland/Russia looks a
reasonable scenario, and depending on how quickly that evolves it
could keep rain and strong winds over Ireland and north and west
Scotland (approximately) by that point. Indeed, we could be in some
pretty warm (for October) and sunny SE'lies around that time (rather
than from the Atlantic), before backing to a cooler E'ly flow for a
time just before mid-month.

I would stress, though, that this is rather speculative. To say the
least.

Stephen.

On 1 Oct, 09:54, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On 28 Sep, 20:42, Dawlish wrote: That fulfils my crteria for a 10-day forecast. 10 days of unsettled,
wet and windy weather to come, at least, for most of the UK.

**At T240, on 8th October, the UK will be in a period of generally
wet, potentially windy and very unsettled weather. No real cold and

very few frosts, as the wind directions will have been S-SW for much
of the preceeding period and will be from the Atlantic on the 8th.



Up to that point, yes. But I'm now minded to speculate whether the wet
period will be out of the way for much of the country by your date,
October 8. Westwards extension of the HP over Finland/Russia looks a
reasonable scenario, and depending on how quickly that evolves it
could keep rain and strong winds over Ireland and north and west
Scotland (approximately) by that point. Indeed, we could be in some
pretty warm (for October) and sunny SE'lies around that time (rather
than from the Atlantic), before backing to a cooler E'ly flow for a
time just before mid-month.


It's the height of bad manners to quote one's own post, so forgive me;
but I don't think that was too far off.

May I therefore award myself 1/1 ? ;-)

Stephen.

On 29 Sep, 18:29, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Stephen Davenport" wrote in message

...

If anything I would expect some retrogression as
the long wave amplitude increases and the continental high possibly
extends
westwards as a consequence? Eh?

I'd agree. I was also puzzled by the progressive assertion. Atlantic
ridge developing mid-month, perhaps, with occasional cooler NW'lies
across the UK and/or the Continent.

Stephen.

Thanks. You know what Stephen, I would go along with something like that,
perhaps even a full blown arctic northerly for a while. There are other
scenarios too, a sort of pseudo block with stagnant lows over B. Isles.
reinforced by shortwaves coming down from the NW - we shall see, let's
"enjoy" the 200 mph jet at around 51N with potential for rapid cyclogensis
first and deal with the future later!

Cheers,

Will
--

And this sort of idea is looking increasingly on the cards.

There looks to be a particularly chilly blow coming for Germany and
eastern Europe at the start of next week.

Stephen.

On Oct 1, 9:54*am, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On 28 Sep, 20:42, Dawlish wrote: That fulfils my crteria for a 10-day forecast. 10 days of unsettled,
wet and windy weather to come, at least, for most of the UK.

**At T240, on 8th October, the UK will be in a period of generally
wet, potentially windy and very unsettled weather. No real cold and

very few frosts, as the wind directions will have been S-SW for much
of the preceeding period and will be from the Atlantic on the 8th.



Up to that point, yes. But I'm now minded to speculate whether the wet
period will be out of the way for much of the country by your date,
October 8. Westwards extension of the HP over Finland/Russia looks a
reasonable scenario, and depending on how quickly that evolves it
could keep rain and strong winds over Ireland and north and west
Scotland (approximately) by that point. Indeed, we could be in some
pretty warm (for October) and sunny SE'lies around that time (rather
than from the Atlantic), before backing to a cooler E'ly flow for a
time just before mid-month.

I would stress, though, that this is rather speculative. To say the
least.

Stephen.

I think you get a 1/1 Stephen! Well done.