Although Joe *******i is not putting out a full European winter
forecast until the 14th October 2010, he seems to be hinting of
another cool winter for Europe, but as yet not sure where the coldest
areas will be.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
Although Joe *******i is not putting out a full European winter
forecast until the 14th October 2010, he seems to be hinting of
another cool winter for Europe, but as yet not sure where the coldest
areas will be.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Yes I read that too Keith on his European blog he was also on about wine
from California and Italy. As you say Joe is going for cold but not
necessarily for all of Europe. He'salso saying that with his theory of a
long negative PDO plus other factors he's expecting some bitter winters in
the coming years. I was watching Channel fours the German Titanic "Wilhelm
Gustloff". This passenger ship packed with refugees from the advancing Red
Army on January 30th 1945 set sail from what is now Gdanks into the Baltic
sea at air temperatures of -20 celsius, the ship was hit by three Soviet
torpedos in the aearlys hours of the morning and 9000 , yes that's right
9000 primarily families drwon or died fro hypothermia. The german polish
baltic had sea ice let alone the northern coastline. If I'm right (without
checking) the forties were the start of a global cooling period right
through to the seventies.

Anyhow I digress

How did you rate Joe's last winter forecast I personally thought he nailed
it 100% for USA, Europe and all the way through to the far east.
Considering that everywhere else away from the bulk of the established
populated areas of the NH was way above normal temps I thought it was an
amazing forecast.

On 03/10/2010 21:55, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Although Joe *******i is not putting out a full European winter
forecast until the 14th October 2010, he seems to be hinting of
another cool winter for Europe, but as yet not sure where the coldest
areas will be.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home& Abroad"
"... but as yet not sure where the coldest
areas will be".


Without the aid of any models or statistics, I will confidently forecast
that somewhere in Europe will have a cool winter! Europe is a large
place and there are many synoptic situations which give cold conditions
in some areas and warm ones elsewhere. Past form by this type of
forecaster suggests that if much of Europe had near average temperatures
but one corner was cold, he would claim a win.

Prizes are only awarded for coming up with the pattern in advance,
indicating which areas will be cold or warm and the reasons why (eg
distribution of high / low pressure anomalies). At least the two
organisations I monitor (the Met Office and Netweather,tv) do this, so
you can see whether they are right or wrong and where the errors have
been made. The Met Office might have "hidden" their forecast, but it is
still there in the public domain if you know where to look and have some
knowledge to interpret it. Netweather are up front with theirs, and as
they issue a commercial version their balance sheet as well as their
reputation is on the line.

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read

"Yokel" wrote in message news:hYednf-

The Met Office might have "hidden" their forecast, but it is still there
in the public domain if you know where to look and have some knowledge to
interpret it.

It does take a bit of drilling down to find but it's far from hidden
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/...list/seasonal/

I maintain a link to it from here http://www.metbrief.com/obs.html
and recently added a link to the NCEP/CFS seasonal output.

Jon.

In article ,
Jon O'Rourke writes:
"Yokel" wrote in message news:hYednf-

The Met Office might have "hidden" their forecast, but it is still
there in the public domain if you know where to look and have some
knowledge to interpret it.

It does take a bit of drilling down to find but it's far from hidden
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/...list/seasonal/

I maintain a link to it from here http://www.metbrief.com/obs.html
and recently added a link to the NCEP/CFS seasonal output.

Jon.


From the wording "Our long-range outlooks as a World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) Global Producing Centre (GPC)", it sounds as though
the Met Office has a commitment to the WMO to continue producing these
forecasts, so that there was never any possibility that they would
cease.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On 6 Oct, 20:08, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Jon O'Rourke writes:"Yokel" wrote in message news:hYednf-

The Met Office might have "hidden" their forecast, but it is still
there *in the public domain if you know where to look and have some
knowledge to *interpret it.

It does take a bit of drilling down to find but it's far from hidden
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/...list/seasonal/

I maintain a link to it from herehttp://www.metbrief.com/obs.html
and recently added a link to the NCEP/CFS seasonal output.

Jon.

From the wording "Our long-range outlooks as a World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) Global Producing Centre (GPC)", it sounds as though
the Met Office has a commitment to the WMO to continue producing these
forecasts, so that there was never any possibility that they would
cease.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * *"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
* * * * * * * * will hardly mind anything else."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

Reading the Met Office Ensemble-mean maps for Dec/Jan/Feb they are
forecasting that Western Europe temperatures will be between 1°C &
1.5°C above normal (a mild winter)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/.../ens_mean.html

And looking at the European long-range probability maps for the same
period they are forecasting the following.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/...seas_prob.html

Temp above normal 60-80% confidence
Temp average 20-40% confidence
Temp below average less than 20% confidence

So again the Met Office are forecasting a Mild Winter.

Will it be Egg on Face 2 years in a row?