Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...5_2_024001.pdf

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

?
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...5_2_024001.pdf

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

Thanks for this, Richard. Looks interesting at first glance.

Joe

On Oct 14, 8:07*pm, Richard Dixon wrote:
Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...-9326_5_2_0240...

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

Here is a description of a related paper:
Oct 7, 2010
Sun's role in warming the planet may be overestimated, study finds

From the Guardian
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/...cle/news/43969

Cheers, Alastair.

"Alastair" wrote in message
...
On Oct 14, 8:07 pm, Richard Dixon wrote:
Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...-9326_5_2_0240...

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

Here is a description of a related paper:
Oct 7, 2010
Sun's role in warming the planet may be overestimated, study finds

From the Guardian
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/...cle/news/43969

Cheers, Alastair.


Lets get this straight. the sun's role in warming may be overestimated.

What a tanker load of Guano. Ermmmm.......please name me the primary
sources of energy that diminish the non consequential role of the sun. What
an over rated, over-hyped ball of fire that is . Sod it lets get this clear
the Thames Estuary wind turbines **** on the sun and its ilk

On Oct 14, 11:55*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message

...
On Oct 14, 8:07 pm, Richard Dixon wrote:

Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...-9326_5_2_0240...

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

Here is a description of a related paper:
Oct 7, 2010
Sun's role in warming the planet may be overestimated, study finds

From the Guardianhttp://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/43969

Cheers, Alastair.

Lets get this straight. the sun's role in warming may be overestimated.

What a tanker load of Guano. *Ermmmm.......please name me the primary
sources of energy that diminish the non consequential role of the sun. What
an over rated, over-hyped ball of fire that is . Sod it lets get this clear
the Thames Estuary wind turbines **** on the sun and its ilk

That's pretty good, Lawrence, (no, it really is) and I'm
actually grinning as I write this but I shouldn't be because the dim-
witted headline enables climate-change sceptics such as yourself to
evade the issue in a gale of hilarity. The issue is that solar
variability doesn't seem to have the effect on the temperature of the
Earth's atmosphere that we might have thought it should.
Only having read the Guardian summary I can't really comment
on the mechanism, which is not explained, at least as far as regional
variation goes. Is there an increase in blocking? This would account
for colder European winters, given the preferred longitude of many
blocks but is blocking more frequent when stratospheric temperatures
are higher? Another point is whether the global mean was colder
during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) or was it just Europe?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey

On Oct 14, 11:42*pm, Alastair wrote:
On Oct 14, 8:07*pm, Richard Dixon wrote:

Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...-9326_5_2_0240...

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

Here is a description of a related paper:
Oct 7, 2010
Sun's role in warming the planet may be overestimated, study finds

From the Guardianhttp://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/43969

Cheers, Alastair.

You have to read both papers to get to the science, which lawrence
hasn't done, of course - he's read the headline. "Yes, possibly" to
dixon's question, but Lockwood's research came out in March and has
been discussed before and I've factored it into my thinking about the
coming winter (and still come down on the warmer than average side).
It's a hope for the snow brigade, no more. Also, why refer to it as if
it is new?

On 14 Oct, 18:22, "Joe Whyte \(jcw\)" wrote:

Thanks for this, Richard. *Looks interesting at first glance.

Joe

I quite like the idea of one of the suggested links "Alternatively,
tropospheric jet streams have been shown to be sensitive to the solar
forcing of stratospheric temperatures"...."In particular, long-lived
Atlantic blocking events at more eastward locations have been found to
be more prevalent at sunspot minimum than at higher solar activity, an
asymmetry that is enhanced by the phase of the quasi-biennial
oscillation, and this leads to colder winters in Europe." - the paper
it links regarding this says: "Atlantic blocking occurrence enhances
the likelihood of cold days over Europe under either high solar or low
solar activity. However, cold surface temperature anomalies are more
prone to occur during blocking episodes of low sunspot activity,
whereas winter high sunspot activity blocking does not significantly
alter the distribution of cold temperatures."

Very interesting read (and an eye-opener for me).

Richard

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
...
On Oct 14, 11:55 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message

...
On Oct 14, 8:07 pm, Richard Dixon wrote:

Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...-9326_5_2_0240...

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

Here is a description of a related paper:
Oct 7, 2010
Sun's role in warming the planet may be overestimated, study finds

From the
Guardianhttp://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/43969

Cheers, Alastair.

Lets get this straight. the sun's role in warming may be overestimated.

What a tanker load of Guano. Ermmmm.......please name me the primary
sources of energy that diminish the non consequential role of the sun.
What
an over rated, over-hyped ball of fire that is . Sod it lets get this
clear
the Thames Estuary wind turbines **** on the sun and its ilk

That's pretty good, Lawrence, (no, it really is) and I'm
actually grinning as I write this but I shouldn't be because the dim-
witted headline enables climate-change sceptics such as yourself to
evade the issue in a gale of hilarity. The issue is that solar
variability doesn't seem to have the effect on the temperature of the
Earth's atmosphere that we might have thought it should.
Only having read the Guardian summary I can't really comment
on the mechanism, which is not explained, at least as far as regional
variation goes. Is there an increase in blocking? This would account
for colder European winters, given the preferred longitude of many
blocks but is blocking more frequent when stratospheric temperatures
are higher? Another point is whether the global mean was colder
during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) or was it just Europe?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey


yes Tudor that research cited in the Guardian has already been put out there
on the sceptics blogs like WUWT. To be fair it was obvious that campaigning
AGW newspapers like the Guardian would leap at such stuff, as it would make
the warming of the last 25 years even worse than we though due to a very
active sun. However it based on just three years of satellite data. When it
came to Eigil Friis-Christensenand his inactive sun and increased cloud
theory the Guardian didn't even feel the need to mention the fact that their
beloved AGW might have other causes rather than that of the wicked west.
Eigil Friis-Christensen sun-activity climate link work became known in the
early nineties whereas this latest research is hot of the press and yet they
are fully behind immediatly because it fits their agenda.

"Alastair" wrote in message
...
On Oct 14, 8:07 pm, Richard Dixon wrote:
Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...-9326_5_2_0240...

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

Here is a description of a related paper:
Oct 7, 2010
Sun's role in warming the planet may be overestimated, study finds

From the Guardian
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/...cle/news/43969

Cheers, Alastair.


As I understand it Alastair, the findings based on just three years of
satellite data measured and showed a very small increase in ultra violet
light. Now if Eigil Friis-Christensen is correct than that would be easily
swamped by increase in reflectivity. Anyhow we might get a definitive answer
in the coming years.

On Oct 15, 2:25*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Alastair" wrote in message

...
On Oct 14, 8:07 pm, Richard Dixon wrote:

Dear All,

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...-9326_5_2_0240...

This may provide an interesting read and maybe discussion.

"Lastly, one can invert the title of this paper and
ask ‘Does the occurrence of lower/higher solar activity
make a cold/warm winter in Europe more likely (than the
climatological mean)?’ Our results strongly suggest that it
does, which has implications for seasonal predictions."

Richard

Here is a description of a related paper:
Oct 7, 2010
Sun's role in warming the planet may be overestimated, study finds

From the Guardianhttp://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/43969

Cheers, Alastair.

As I understand it Alastair, the findings based on just three years of
satellite data measured and showed a very small increase in ultra violet
light. Now *if Eigil Friis-Christensen is correct than that would be easily
swamped by increase in reflectivity. Anyhow we might get a definitive answer
in the coming years.

It seems that both the sceptic blogs and the greenie newspapers are
spinning Prof. Joanna Haigh's paper to fit their causes. It is
generally accepted that the Little Ice Age began in the 14th Century
but the Maunder Minimum of sunspots, which is often blamed for the
LIA, only happened in the 17th Century. So we still have much to learn
about the drivers of climate, not least whether it can change as
abruptly and violently as the weather.

Cheers, Alastair.