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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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In article ,
Graham P Davis writes: On Tuesday 02 November 2010 17:41, Teignmouth scribbled: Here's the link for SW England, cos that's where I live. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...;loc=SWEngland And here's the full winter F/C: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...forecast;sess= I see that, unlike many commercial outfits who attempt to make seasonal forecasts, they describe their methodology. It looks to me - admittedly no expert - that though their forecast may well be wrong it deserves to be taken seriously. -- John Hall "I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly, will hardly mind anything else." Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84) |
#2
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On 2 Nov, 21:20, John Hall wrote:
I see that, unlike many commercial outfits who attempt to make seasonal forecasts, they describe their methodology. It looks to me - admittedly no expert - that though their forecast may well be wrong it deserves to be taken seriously. Always worth a look - especially if there's some sort of consensus in different methods, not that last year was much to go on. Richard |
#3
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On Nov 2, 9:20*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article , *Graham P Davis writes: On Tuesday 02 November 2010 17:41, Teignmouth scribbled: Here's the link for SW England, cos that's where I live. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...;loc=SWEngland And here's the full winter F/C: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nter-forecast;... I see that, unlike many commercial outfits who attempt to make seasonal forecasts, they describe their methodology. It looks to me - admittedly no expert - that though their forecast may well be wrong it deserves to be taken seriously. -- John Hall * * * * * * * *"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly, * * * * * * * * will hardly mind anything else." * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84) It's another forecast; no more. They appear to be going down the road of saying that La Nina will affect our winter, but they don't refer to any research. What research there is not conclusive about the link from the Equatorial Pacific to us in the UK in a La Nina winter (or an El Nino, or transition winter either!). I think they are looking at the main difference in conditions between this winter and last and guessing that the kind of winter we will have will be different to last year; hence the colder and drier forecast. *No-one* including netweather has any decent track record in seasonal forecasting, so why should we really take any of them seriously? When someone gets it right around 75% of the time over about a dozen seasons, I'll begin to start taking an interest in what they are doing. No-one appears to have managed to do that yet. I'm incredibly frustrated by the lack of progress in seasonal forecasting over the last 20 years. Far more research is needed and we are nowhere near being able to forecast this winter's weather with any confidence. The demand for people to be able to get it right is great, but no-one can meet the demand. That creates a market for the commercials. The commercials also have a vested interest in drumming up business and if they mention cold, it will wed most of their participants to their site, as they will be hoping they've got it right. If they say "cold" they'll also get far more publicity than if they say "mild". It will also attact new coldies because they will think that someone has found the holy grail of forecasting a cold winter. They haven't. Really; they haven't. Frustrating; pretty hopeless; not what the coldies will want to hear, but there you go. |
#4
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can you do better then?
no. you dont even have the balls to issue one. case closed. charlatan 100% On 03/11/2010 12:53 PM, Dawlish wrote: It's another forecast; no more. They appear to be going down the road of saying that La Nina will affect our winter, but they don't refer to any research. What research there is not conclusive about the link from the Equatorial Pacific to us in the UK in a La Nina winter (or an El Nino, or transition winter either!). I think they are looking at the main difference in conditions between this winter and last and guessing that the kind of winter we will have will be different to last year; hence the colder and drier forecast. *No-one* including netweather has any decent track record in seasonal forecasting, so why should we really take any of them seriously? When someone gets it right around 75% of the time over about a dozen seasons, I'll begin to start taking an interest in what they are doing. No-one appears to have managed to do that yet. I'm incredibly frustrated by the lack of progress in seasonal forecasting over the last 20 years. Far more research is needed and we are nowhere near being able to forecast this winter's weather with any confidence. The demand for people to be able to get it right is great, but no-one can meet the demand. That creates a market for the commercials. The commercials also have a vested interest in drumming up business and if they mention cold, it will wed most of their participants to their site, as they will be hoping they've got it right. If they say "cold" they'll also get far more publicity than if they say "mild". It will also attact new coldies because they will think that someone has found the holy grail of forecasting a cold winter. They haven't. Really; they haven't. Frustrating; pretty hopeless; not what the coldies will want to hear, but there you go. |
#5
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I like the Charlatans, great band http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhSA8FwdS2A
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#6
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![]() "Teignmouth" wrote in message ... I like the Charlatans, great band http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhSA8FwdS2 Great track, bought that as a single. But never mind all that, why is Dawlish any more of a 'charlatan' for his forecasts, for which he clearly identifies the criteria they are issued under, and those who brag about their 'successes' yet conveniently forget about their failures. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
#7
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oh happy days before ogre
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNl-J...eature=related enjoy On 03/11/2010 10:17 PM, Col wrote: But never mind all that, why is Dawlish any more of a 'charlatan' |
#8
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On Nov 3, 10:17*pm, "Col" wrote:
"Teignmouth" wrote in message ... I like the Charlatans, great bandhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhSA8FwdS2 Great track, bought that as a single. But never mind all that, why is Dawlish any more of a 'charlatan' for his forecasts, for which he clearly identifies the criteria they are issued under, and those who brag about their 'successes' yet conveniently forget about their failures. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl He's replied to a stalker Col, who'd not even worth wiping from the sole of your shoe. I actually like the Chartatans too. Terrific band. Tend to be folllowed by herds of sheep on fora, if I remember rightly. |
#9
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Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 3, 10:17 pm, "Col" wrote: "Teignmouth" wrote in message ... I like the Charlatans, great bandhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhSA8FwdS2 Great track, bought that as a single. But never mind all that, why is Dawlish any more of a 'charlatan' for his forecasts, for which he clearly identifies the criteria they are issued under, and those who brag about their 'successes' yet conveniently forget about their failures. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl He's replied to a stalker Col, who'd not even worth wiping from the sole of your shoe. I actually like the Chartatans too. Terrific band. Tend to be folllowed by herds of sheep on fora, if I remember rightly. Ah, right. I have that idiot killfiled so it appeared to me that Teignmouth was replying to you. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
#10
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shouting spite again or is that spouting ****e?
reported to mr google. On 04/11/2010 6:05 AM, Dawlish wrote: He's replied to a stalker Col, who'd not even worth wiping from the sole of your shoe. I |
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