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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Looking at the 1km radar:
Main band of rain encroaches upon the western tip of Cornwall ~18:00 on the 16th, reaching St Austell Bay at ~20:00. Most of the rain rates are 5mm/hr, but a few heavier regions ~10mm/hr. After 21:00 a stronger line of rainfall (10m/hr) appears aligned NNW-SSE through Penzance, moving eastwards through Falmouth ~22:00. Although this line dissipated somewhat as it moved over St Austell, there was orographic enhancement over Bodmin Moor over the next 2-3 hours. Meanwhile out to the west a thin line (5km E-W) of very heavy rain (50mm/hr) developed. This line first appears fragmented, but started to form a continuous line from northern Cornwall, southwards across the Lizard and out into the channel at ~03:00 on the 17th. This line then develops slightly to the east of the Lizard, so that by 04:00 it stretches from St Austell, south-westwards just to the East of the Lizard. On the southeast side of this line (about 50km out over the channel) there appears to a much drier region being dragged northwards. The thin line of heavy rain then wriggles north-eastwards, decaying over the next 3-4 hours. Given the thinness of the heavy rainfall area I suspect it would have missed many of the gauge locations: maximum rainfall accumulations based upon the radar suggest in excess of 50mm in a band no more than 4-5km wide; 35 sq kilometres with 75mm total over Bodmin Moor, and ~ 13 sq kilometres with 75mm on the St Austell area. |
#2
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"Chris" wrote ...
Looking at the 1km radar: Main band of rain encroaches upon the western tip of Cornwall ~18:00 on the 16th, reaching St Austell Bay at ~20:00. Most of the rain rates are 5mm/hr, but a few heavier regions ~10mm/hr. After 21:00 a stronger line of rainfall (10m/hr) appears aligned NNW-SSE through Penzance, moving eastwards through Falmouth ~22:00. Although this line dissipated somewhat as it moved over St Austell, there was orographic enhancement over Bodmin Moor over the next 2-3 hours. Meanwhile out to the west a thin line (5km E-W) of very heavy rain (50mm/hr) developed. This line first appears fragmented, but started to form a continuous line from northern Cornwall, southwards across the Lizard and out into the channel at ~03:00 on the 17th. This line then develops slightly to the east of the Lizard, so that by 04:00 it stretches from St Austell, south-westwards just to the East of the Lizard. On the southeast side of this line (about 50km out over the channel) there appears to a much drier region being dragged northwards. The thin line of heavy rain then wriggles north-eastwards, decaying over the next 3-4 hours. Given the thinness of the heavy rainfall area I suspect it would have missed many of the gauge locations: maximum rainfall accumulations based upon the radar suggest in excess of 50mm in a band no more than 4-5km wide; 35 sq kilometres with 75mm total over Bodmin Moor, and ~ 13 sq kilometres with 75mm on the St Austell area. .... Thanks very much for all that information Chris; interesting to see the output from Restormel EA river monitoring gauge (R. Fowey) he- http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk...stationId=3152 a sharp increase in the short period after 17/0600 NOV, which suggests that an awful lot of rain had fallen in the hours preceding upstream of this point - threatening the 'highest recorded' value since the station opened in 1961. There will no doubt be EA gauges co-located with the sensing point, so we'll get a better idea of spatial rain totals in due course - however, as you point out, getting a 'true' total rainfall is always problematical. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 |
#3
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On Nov 17, 9:37*pm, "Chris" wrote:
Looking at the 1km radar: Main band of rain encroaches upon the western tip of Cornwall ~18:00 on the 16th, reaching St Austell Bay at ~20:00. Most of the rain rates are 5mm/hr, but a few heavier regions ~10mm/hr. After 21:00 a stronger line of rainfall (10m/hr) appears aligned NNW-SSE through Penzance, moving eastwards through Falmouth ~22:00. Although this line dissipated somewhat as it moved over St Austell, there was orographic enhancement over Bodmin Moor over the next 2-3 hours. Meanwhile out to the west a thin line (5km E-W) of very heavy rain (50mm/hr) developed. This line first appears fragmented, but started to form a continuous line from northern Cornwall, southwards across the Lizard and out into the channel at ~03:00 on the 17th. This line then develops slightly to the east of the Lizard, so that by 04:00 it stretches from St Austell, south-westwards just to the East of the Lizard. On the southeast side of this line (about 50km out over the channel) there appears to a much drier region being dragged northwards. The thin line of heavy rain then wriggles north-eastwards, decaying over the next 3-4 hours. Given the thinness of the heavy rainfall area I suspect it would have missed many of the gauge locations: maximum rainfall accumulations based upon the radar suggest in excess of 50mm in a band no more than 4-5km wide; 35 sq kilometres with 75mm total over Bodmin Moor, and ~ 13 sq kilometres with *75mm on the St Austell area. Thanks Chris (I seem to remember you with providing me with some useful info after the St Ives flood, I was going on amounts recorded in a couple of buckets - on a farm run by relations near Zennor - and couldn't quite believe the 8" until your radar analysis supported it) The flood areas affected fit in perfectly with it being a very narrow NNE/SSW band. I believe around 80mm was recorded somewhere (near Colliford I think), but not sure of the length of period covered, probably 24 hours. Graham Penzance |
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