Fascinating looking at each run from GFS, (12z coming out as I write)
as to the duration and persistence of this north easterly flow. Atm it
seems dug into at least next Tuesday, but can I actually believe those
DAM figures? I can't believe any snow will stick as I would have
thought daytime temperatures would creep up to 2 or 3°C during
daylight hours being November.

I also have a very strong feeling that this *may* be the coldest week
of the winter in the UK. Only time will tell.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

could be based on history. early cold, mild rest of winter.

but i have a feeling the goalposts have moved back to the original
positions...surey not 3 cold winters in row??

On 23/11/2010 4:31 PM, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

I also have a very strong feeling that this *may* be the coldest week
of the winter in the UK. Only time will tell.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home& Abroad"

On Nov 23, 4:31*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
Fascinating looking at each run from GFS, (12z coming out as I write)
as to the duration and persistence of this north easterly flow. Atm it
seems dug into at least next Tuesday, but can I actually believe those
DAM figures? I can't believe any snow will stick as I would have
thought daytime temperatures *would creep up to 2 or 3°C during
daylight hours being November.

I think of the larger-scale models as having a "faulty" feedback loop
in an easterly. It underdoes the inland penetration of the snow in the
first place, which therefore underdoes the laying snow and therefore
has a higher surface temperature in the progs. Something that actually
came into my head the other day when thinking about how you understand
the progs in these events. I can see why the MO are being cagey and
doing one of their blanket warnings.

Remarkable midday progs from the GFS nonetheless with a non-stop
easterly for quite a while. Beginning to wonder whether my trip up to
Reading to see an old friend on Saturday is going to be a sensible
move !

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Nov 23, 4:31 pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
Fascinating looking at each run from GFS, (12z coming out as I write)
as to the duration and persistence of this north easterly flow. Atm it
seems dug into at least next Tuesday, but can I actually believe those
DAM figures? I can't believe any snow will stick as I would have
thought daytime temperatures would creep up to 2 or 3°C during
daylight hours being November.

I think of the larger-scale models as having a "faulty" feedback loop
in an easterly. It underdoes the inland penetration of the snow in the
first place, which therefore underdoes the laying snow and therefore
has a higher surface temperature in the progs. Something that actually
came into my head the other day when thinking about how you understand
the progs in these events. I can see why the MO are being cagey and
doing one of their blanket warnings.

Remarkable midday progs from the GFS nonetheless with a non-stop
easterly for quite a while. Beginning to wonder whether my trip up to
Reading to see an old friend on Saturday is going to be a sensible
move !

Richard
=================

As I keep on saying this event is going to be MEGA, simply awesome!

Those charts are something else and any meteorologist worth his or her salt
ought to be excited irrespective of whether they like snow or not. If it was
the other way round with 582DAM in summer, I'd be excited even though I
detest heat.

Eskimo Will
--

On Nov 23, 5:15*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...
On Nov 23, 4:31 pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

Fascinating looking at each run from GFS, (12z coming out as I write)
as to the duration and persistence of this north easterly flow. Atm it
seems dug into at least next Tuesday, but can I actually believe those
DAM figures? I can't believe any snow will stick as I would have
thought daytime temperatures would creep up to 2 or 3 C during
daylight hours being November.

I think of the larger-scale models as having a "faulty" feedback loop
in an easterly. It underdoes the inland penetration of the snow in the
first place, which therefore underdoes the laying snow and therefore
has a higher surface temperature in the progs. Something that actually
came into my head the other day when thinking about how you understand
the progs in these events. I can see why the MO are being cagey and
doing one of their blanket warnings.

Remarkable midday progs from the GFS nonetheless with a non-stop
easterly for quite a while. Beginning to wonder whether my trip up to
Reading to see an old friend on Saturday is going to be a sensible
move !

Richard
=================

As I keep on saying this event is going to be MEGA, simply awesome!

Those charts are something else and any meteorologist worth his or her salt
ought to be excited irrespective of whether they like snow or not. If it was
the other way round with 582DAM in summer, I'd be excited even though I
detest heat.

Eskimo Will
--

I'm beside meself Will.
I'm sure I saw a snowflake today.
Looking forward to the molasses they add to the road salt these days.
Sure to get my car out of a sticky situation.

I remember the good old days... 25 Nov 2005. Snow in Wembury then from
a vigorous northerly fired by low in the N.Sea.

Len Wood
Wembury on the SW Devon coast

Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Fascinating looking at each run from GFS, (12z coming out as I write)
as to the duration and persistence of this north easterly flow. Atm it
seems dug into at least next Tuesday, but can I actually believe those
DAM figures? I can't believe any snow will stick as I would have
thought daytime temperatures would creep up to 2 or 3°C during
daylight hours being November.

I also have a very strong feeling that this *may* be the coldest week
of the winter in the UK. Only time will tell.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
------------------
I think Richard may be right. If it snows hard enough it will settle at
1-2C and form a self insulating layer around zero. Also they are maximum
temperatures and with daylight hours akin to mid-January they won't be
at that for long and the snow cover will have it's reflective
properties. Some night frosts beforehand might help. So if it's 1-2C max
I think it will stick but probably not at 3-4C.
Dave

On Nov 23, 5:59*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Fascinating looking at each run from GFS, (12z coming out as I write)
as to the duration and persistence of this north easterly flow. Atm it
seems dug into at least next Tuesday, but can I actually believe those
DAM figures? I can't believe any snow will stick as I would have
thought daytime temperatures *would creep up to 2 or 3 C during
daylight hours being November.

I also have a very strong feeling that this *may* be the coldest week
of the winter in the UK. Only time will tell.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

------------------
I think Richard may be right. If it snows hard enough it will settle at
1-2C and form a self insulating layer around zero. Also they are maximum
temperatures and with daylight hours akin to mid-January they won't be
at that for long and the snow cover will have it's reflective
properties. Some night frosts beforehand might help. So if it's 1-2C max
I think it will stick but probably not at 3-4C.
Dave

At this time of year, with weak insolation, the dewpoint temperature
is more important than the actual air temperature (dry bulb). Any
tendency for the snow to melt will result in the snow surface being
cooled to the dewpoint temperature, and this should be several degrees
below freezing in an unstable Arctic airmass.

Dick Lovett
Charlbury

On Nov 23, 6:35*pm, Dick wrote:
On Nov 23, 5:59*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:





Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Fascinating looking at each run from GFS, (12z coming out as I write)
as to the duration and persistence of this north easterly flow. Atm it
seems dug into at least next Tuesday, but can I actually believe those
DAM figures? I can't believe any snow will stick as I would have
thought daytime temperatures *would creep up to 2 or 3 C during
daylight hours being November.

I also have a very strong feeling that this *may* be the coldest week
of the winter in the UK. Only time will tell.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

------------------
I think Richard may be right. If it snows hard enough it will settle at
1-2C and form a self insulating layer around zero. Also they are maximum
temperatures and with daylight hours akin to mid-January they won't be
at that for long and the snow cover will have it's reflective
properties. Some night frosts beforehand might help. So if it's 1-2C max
I think it will stick but probably not at 3-4C.
Dave

At this time of year, with weak insolation, the dewpoint temperature
is more important than the actual air temperature (dry bulb). Any
tendency for the snow to melt will result in the snow surface being
cooled to the dewpoint temperature, and this should be several degrees
below freezing in an unstable Arctic airmass.

Dick Lovett
Charlbury- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sorry, should have said the WET BULB temperature, and NOT the dew
point.

Dick

On 23/11/10 16:44, Richard Dixon wrote:
I think of the larger-scale models as having a "faulty" feedback loop
in an easterly. It underdoes the inland penetration of the snow in the
first place, which therefore underdoes the laying snow and therefore
has a higher surface temperature in the progs. Something that actually
came into my head the other day when thinking about how you understand
the progs in these events. I can see why the MO are being cagey and
doing one of their blanket warnings.

'Twas ever thus, even before computers. Fifty to sixty years ago,
temperatures in an easterly would always be lower than forecast, the
wind stronger, and snow would would fall on low ground when it had only
been mentioned for high ground. At warmer times of the year, the low
cloud which had fed in overnight from the North Sea would be forecast to
retreat to "eastern coastal districts," which would have been correct if
Birmingham was an east-coast seaside resort.

Easterlies have always been a nuisance to forecasters and always will.
I've been caught out by the darn things in a NW'ly when the surface wind
whips round to NE'ly by 0900 for no good reason and persists all day.

There's something malign in the character of easterlies. I think they
just have it in for forecasters.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks.
E-mail: "newsman", not "newsboy"
Another Brick in The Wall: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIP38eq-ywc

On 23/11/10 17:15, Will Hand wrote:


As I keep on saying this event is going to be MEGA, simply awesome!


But for who?

Is any snow likely to penetrate inland as far as Surrey and W Sussex?