Well mine was hopeless - I said warmer than average.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Others?

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Well mine was hopeless - I said warmer than average.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Others?

Interesting that the provisional CET anomaly for the year up to 29th
November is -0.18. So it now looks almost certain that we will have a
negative anomaly for the calendar year 2010. I suspect that it's quite a
few years since that last happened. (I assume that's the anomaly
relative to the 1971-2000 mean.)
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Thursday 02 Dec 2010 09:15, Dawlish scribbled:

Well mine was hopeless - I said warmer than average.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Others?

Here's what I posted 29th June:
"I mentioned the other day that I thought the SST anomaly would change by
the autumn to one favoring zonality and the latest picture shows strong
warming continuing south of 40N in the western N Atlantic
-
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/a....6.28.2010.gif

In theory, this should give us a more mobile westerly type with
deeper than usual Atlantic depressions. The summer could get more westerly
and be followed by a stormy autumn and a mild and stormy winter
also. However, still far too early to firm up on anything as the SST
pattern is still in the middle of a change and could easily develop
differently to what I'm expecting."

On 28th July, I posted:
"Lately, I've seen signs that the type may be changing from zonal to warm
pool as the remains of last winter's cold pool slips east. If that were
correct, instead of a belt of lower than average pressure lying W-E between
Iceland and Scotland, the low would be nearer the Norwegian Sea and there'd
be a mid-Atlantic high instead of a W_E belt of high pressure to the S of
us. The UK would then be in a bit more of a NW-ly instead of a W-ly."

I see I was at least wise enough not to mention temperatures. ;-) The change
from W'ly to NW-ly in the July posting suggests something cooler but, to be
honest, If I'd been forced to mention temperatures, I'd have gone for "mild"
rather than "cool".

I need to look back to see how the mean pressure anomalies shaped up. I
think I got the summer change of type OK. As to the "stormy autumn", there
were certainly some stormy spells but whether that was enough to call the
whole autumn stormy, I doubt it.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
It was raining cats and dogs and I fell in a poodle. [Chic
Murray(1919-1985)]

On Dec 2, 11:56*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thursday 02 Dec 2010 09:15, Dawlish scribbled:

Well mine was hopeless - I said warmer than average.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Others?

Here's what I posted 29th June:
"I mentioned the other day that I thought the SST anomaly would change by
the autumn to one favoring zonality and the latest picture shows strong
warming continuing south of 40N in the western N Atlantic
-http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.6.28.2010.gif

In theory, this should give us a more mobile westerly type with
deeper than usual Atlantic depressions. The summer could get more westerly
and be followed by a stormy autumn and a mild and stormy winter
also. However, still far too early to firm up on anything as the SST
pattern is still in the middle of a change and could easily develop
differently to what I'm expecting."

On 28th July, I posted:
"Lately, I've seen signs that the type may be changing from zonal to warm
pool as the remains of last winter's cold pool slips east. If that were
correct, instead of a belt of lower than average pressure lying W-E between
Iceland and Scotland, the low would be nearer the Norwegian Sea and there'd
be a mid-Atlantic high instead of a W_E belt of high pressure to the S of
us. The UK would then be in a bit more of a NW-ly instead of a W-ly."

I see I was at least wise enough not to mention temperatures. ;-) The change
from W'ly to NW-ly in the July posting suggests something cooler but, to be
honest, If I'd been forced to mention temperatures, I'd have gone for "mild"
rather than "cool".

I need to look back to see how the mean pressure anomalies shaped up. I
think I got the summer change of type OK. As to the "stormy autumn", there
were certainly some stormy spells but whether that was enough to call the
whole autumn stormy, I doubt it.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
It was raining cats and dogs and I fell in a poodle. [Chic
Murray(1919-1985)]

Interesting Graham and thanks. I think SST analysis will probably form
a major tool for any improvements to seasonal forecasting and the Met
Office use SST analysis in their (now non-public) winter forecasting,
with a hindcast success of around 2/3 in predictiing the sign of the
NAO (though not the actual weather). I always have my doubts about
seasonal forecasting methods, as you know and the doubts always (and
rightly!) centre around outcome success over time. but I am genuinely
intersted in your SST anylyses and the experience you bring to bear on
that. I don't think the autumn could really be describes as "stormy"
either. The proposed links to extra-tropical depressions didn't seem
to work this year.

On Dec 2, 12:12*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 2, 11:56*am, Graham P Davis wrote:





On Thursday 02 Dec 2010 09:15, Dawlish scribbled:

Well mine was hopeless - I said warmer than average.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Others?

Here's what I posted 29th June:
"I mentioned the other day that I thought the SST anomaly would change by
the autumn to one favoring zonality and the latest picture shows strong
warming continuing south of 40N in the western N Atlantic
-http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.6.28.2010.gif

In theory, this should give us a more mobile westerly type with
deeper than usual Atlantic depressions. The summer could get more westerly
and be followed by a stormy autumn and a mild and stormy winter
also. However, still far too early to firm up on anything as the SST
pattern is still in the middle of a change and could easily develop
differently to what I'm expecting."

On 28th July, I posted:
"Lately, I've seen signs that the type may be changing from zonal to warm
pool as the remains of last winter's cold pool slips east. If that were
correct, instead of a belt of lower than average pressure lying W-E between
Iceland and Scotland, the low would be nearer the Norwegian Sea and there'd
be a mid-Atlantic high instead of a W_E belt of high pressure to the S of
us. The UK would then be in a bit more of a NW-ly instead of a W-ly."

I see I was at least wise enough not to mention temperatures. ;-) The change
from W'ly to NW-ly in the July posting suggests something cooler but, to be
honest, If I'd been forced to mention temperatures, I'd have gone for "mild"
rather than "cool".

I need to look back to see how the mean pressure anomalies shaped up. I
think I got the summer change of type OK. As to the "stormy autumn", there
were certainly some stormy spells but whether that was enough to call the
whole autumn stormy, I doubt it.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
It was raining cats and dogs and I fell in a poodle. [Chic
Murray(1919-1985)]

Interesting Graham and thanks. I think SST analysis will probably form
a major tool for any improvements to seasonal forecasting and the Met
Office use SST analysis in their (now non-public) winter forecasting,
with a hindcast success of around 2/3 in predictiing the sign of the
NAO (though not the actual weather). I always have my doubts about
seasonal forecasting methods, as you know and the doubts always (and
rightly!) centre around outcome success over time. but I am genuinely
intersted in your SST anylyses and the experience you bring to bear on
that. I don't think the autumn could really be describes as "stormy"
either. The proposed links to extra-tropical depressions didn't seem
to work this year.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Any more willing to review their autumn forecasts? If you put a
forecast out, you've really got to come back and review it.