.... if (big if) the 12Z GFS OP is close to what eventually happens,
then by the time we get to 15th December 12Z, it is suggesting a
closed isobar of 1054 mbar/hPa surrounding the Hebrides group.

From Stephen Burt's paper in 2007, the highest December British Isles
(land-station) value is listed as 1051.9 mbar in 1926 and the highest
'any-month' value is 1053.6 mbar in January 1902. Both long-standing
records.

I haven't seen the full EC OP, but up to T+168 it doesn't support this
sort of value as the c-o-g of the High is further north and not quite
so intense.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

On Dec 7, 6:42*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:

I haven't seen the full EC OP, but up to T+168 it doesn't support this
sort of value as the c-o-g of the High is further north and not quite
so intense.

The ECM 12Z today is rather extreme but for a different reason - it
sets up a more or less straight cross-polar northerly (well, southerly
when it starts!) from the Aleutian islands to the UK:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0