On Dec 8, 9:53*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:



On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.

It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says *enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

errrrrrrrr. No. Not when it is daft. Like I said; calm down. People
have just as much right to criticise the ramping as the rampers have
to ramp. (I do hate that word, but that's what coldies do when it is
cold, or further cold is possible!). No-one can forecast at 2 weeks
with any record of reasonable accuracy, so best not to believe the
ones that do, even when they are "forecasting" exactly what you want
to see forecast.

Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?

In article
,
Lawrence13 writes:
On Dec 8, 9:29*am, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.

Was that a euphemism (or a euphonium)?

Richard

I think Tudor just gets brassed off with all of us acting like kids.

But acting like kids is what newsgroups are /for/.

Anyhow its good to see him and Dawlish building bridges, ice bridges
that is.


--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Dec 8, 10:15*am, Teignmouth wrote:




Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?-

The only difference is that Will is a respected meteorologist who
speaks with authority and credibility. He also has a sense of humour.
Dawlish - ahh bless him!

On Dec 8, 10:46*am, Seany McD wrote:
On Dec 8, 10:15*am, Teignmouth wrote:



Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?-

The only difference is that Will is a respected meteorologist who
speaks with authority and credibility. He also has a sense of humour.
Dawlish - ahh bless him!

I thought these comments might start as soon as I pointed out the
reality. *((

On Dec 8, 10:15*am, Teignmouth wrote:
On Dec 8, 9:53*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.

It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says *enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

errrrrrrrr. No. Not when it is daft. Like I said; calm down. People
have just as much right to criticise the ramping as the rampers have
to ramp. (I do hate that word, but that's what coldies do when it is
cold, or further cold is possible!). No-one can forecast at 2 weeks
with any record of reasonable accuracy, so best not to believe the
ones that do, even when they are "forecasting" exactly what you want
to see forecast.

Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The difference is that we've had cold winter ramping and we haven't
had any global warming ramping (whatever that is) whatsoever! Have we?
I've just pointed out that your second post is purely speculative
ramping T, which it is. Nothing more. Nothing whatsoever about GW. The
reaction from people when I point this out to them always surprises
me, though it's time I stopped being so naive at the depth of feeling
against anyone that points out to coldies that they may just be
talking b*llocks when they puts his wish for cold into some kind of
meteorological hopecast. Nothing wrong factually with anything I said,
but it's hard for the coldies to accept that anyone could possibly
criticise their hopes and needs for cold to happen.

Like I said. Happens every winter. Each to their own, I say.

I thought these comments might start as soon as I pointed out the
reality. *((

The reality is the UK is experiencing an exceptional cold spell, the
current CET is -2.0c, that is a whopping -7.6c below normal or, to put
it another way more than 4 Standard Deviations below the 1971-2009
normal of +4.8c. Someone with a maths degree should be able to
calculate the probabilty of this occuring. Philip Eden's CET
http://www.climate-uk.com/

Also, there is a thread on TWO comparing this December with previous
December Central England Temperatures, worth a look.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...g=posts&t=2200

So I make no appologies for talking about this current cold spell, and
suggesting that it may be a once in a liftime event, because I've
never experienced such a cold start to December/Winter in my 39 years
on this planet.

On Dec 8, 11:07*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 8, 10:15*am, Teignmouth wrote:



On Dec 8, 9:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.

It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says *enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

errrrrrrrr. No. Not when it is daft. Like I said; calm down. People
have just as much right to criticise the ramping as the rampers have
to ramp. (I do hate that word, but that's what coldies do when it is
cold, or further cold is possible!). No-one can forecast at 2 weeks
with any record of reasonable accuracy, so best not to believe the
ones that do, even when they are "forecasting" exactly what you want
to see forecast.

Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The difference is that we've had cold winter ramping and we haven't
had any global warming ramping (whatever that is) whatsoever! Have we?
I've just pointed out that your second post is purely speculative
ramping T, which it is. Nothing more. Nothing whatsoever about GW. The
reaction from people when I point this out to them always surprises
me, though it's time I stopped being so naive at the depth of feeling
against anyone that points out to coldies that they may just be
talking b*llocks when they puts his wish for cold into some kind of
meteorological hopecast. Nothing wrong factually with anything I said,
but it's hard for the coldies to accept that anyone could possibly
criticise their hopes and needs for cold to happen.

Like I said. Happens every winter. Each to their own, I say.

Dawlish you are always ramping global warming with your hottest month
or 3rd hottest month on record etc etc etc, or is it your twin brother
posting on your behalf?

It's nice to have the other side of the fence view now and again.

On Dec 8, 11:24*am, Teignmouth wrote:
On Dec 8, 11:07*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 8, 10:15*am, Teignmouth wrote:

On Dec 8, 9:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:

On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

web.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.

It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says *enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.

Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

errrrrrrrr. No. Not when it is daft. Like I said; calm down. People
have just as much right to criticise the ramping as the rampers have
to ramp. (I do hate that word, but that's what coldies do when it is
cold, or further cold is possible!). No-one can forecast at 2 weeks
with any record of reasonable accuracy, so best not to believe the
ones that do, even when they are "forecasting" exactly what you want
to see forecast.

Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The difference is that we've had cold winter ramping and we haven't
had any global warming ramping (whatever that is) whatsoever! Have we?
I've just pointed out that your second post is purely speculative
ramping T, which it is. Nothing more. Nothing whatsoever about GW. The
reaction from people when I point this out to them always surprises
me, though it's time I stopped being so naive at the depth of feeling
against anyone that points out to coldies that they may just be
talking b*llocks when they puts his wish for cold into some kind of
meteorological hopecast. Nothing wrong factually with anything I said,
but it's hard for the coldies to accept that anyone could possibly
criticise their hopes and needs for cold to happen.

Like I said. Happens every winter. Each to their own, I say.

Dawlish you are always ramping global warming with your hottest month
or 3rd hottest month on record etc etc etc, or is it your twin brother
posting on your behalf?

It's nice to have the other side of the fence view now and again.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I often report facts about global temperatures from the 5 temperature
series and changes in ENSO from NOAA and the Aussie BOM. No-one can
"ramp" GW. It's just global temperatures. The changes in those global
temperatures over time show trends. The current trend shows warming
over a long period and that requires scientific explanation. Like you
with the current cold spell, I make no apolgies for talking about
them. Nor should we.

However, this thread has nothing to do with GW! OOz keeps it cold out
to 10 days and the gfs and other models concur. Brrrrrrr.

On Dec 8, 11:19*am, Teignmouth wrote:
I thought these comments might start as soon as I pointed out the
reality. *((

The reality is the UK is experiencing an exceptional cold spell, the
current CET is -2.0c, that is a whopping -7.6c below normal or, to put
it another way more than 4 Standard Deviations below the 1971-2009
normal of +4.8c. Someone with a maths degree should be able to
calculate the probabilty of this occuring. Philip Eden's CEThttp://www.climate-uk.com/

Also, there is a thread on TWO comparing this December with previous
December Central England Temperatures, worth a look.http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...spx?g=posts&t=...

So I make no appologies for talking about this current cold spell, and
suggesting that it may be a once in a liftime event, because I've
never experienced such a cold start to December/Winter in my 39 years
on this planet.

You don't have to make "apologies". Everyone is talking about the
current cold spell - mainly because it is bloody cold! *))

On Dec 8, 11:24*am, Teignmouth wrote:

Dawlish you are always ramping global warming with your hottest month
or 3rd hottest month on record etc etc etc, or is it your twin brother
posting on your behalf?

It's nice to have the other side of the fence view now and again.

My two-penneth. Was lucky enough to see Tim Palmer talk at a meeting a
month or so ago now. Probably the best weather/climate speaker there
is IMHO. Anyhow - he showed a very nice couple of slides that counter
the oft-quoted argument: "If we can't forecast the weather beyond
about 5 days, how can we forecast the climate"? He went on to show the
ideas of chaos, attractors, and how the atmosphere flips between
various states. His point is that chaos won't necessarily influence
longer-term trends and forecasts, even though it is inherent in the
results. His point is that the flip-flop of chaos into various states
will change and thus the atmosphere under climate change is likely to
remain in one of the states more often than pre-climate change.

The way I see this is that, although we might, for example flip to
more hot summers, this doesn't rule out the "flop" of winters like
this one (or the one last year). I also think personally there are
shorter-timescale modulations that lead to what we've seen in the past
3-5 years of quieter winters that modulate this change.

I also believe that there is more value in seasonal forecasts than
some place on here - which is why so much research goes into them. As
per an earlier post, a vastly improved stratospheric resolution has
improved the longer-term forecasts the Met Office provide, so it
doesn't surprise me that they stuck their neck out in their month
ahead forecast on the web going back way when if they saw a strong
signal for cold. Much like the climate modelling flip/flop comments
related to Tim Palmer's talk above - I believe chaos ruins the chances
of forecasting minutiae in the short-to-medium range up to 7-10 days,
but not the chance of forecasting *trends* over seasons.

Richard