Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Well I wouldn't bet on it. EC's 500hPa ensemble mean continues to look well
blocked out to day 10 and I can't see that changing very quickly
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...0!!chart.gi f

As always I'd pay little attention to the often volatile operational runs,
especially the fantasy GFS beyond day 5, and keep your eye on the trends in
the ENS output, e.g. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Jon.

On Dec 8, 5:27*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message

...

Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Well I wouldn't bet on it. EC's 500hPa ensemble mean continues to look well
blocked out to day 10 and I can't see that changing very quicklyhttp://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/f...

As always I'd pay little attention to the often volatile operational runs,
especially the fantasy GFS *beyond day 5, and keep your eye on the trends in
the ENS output, e.g.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Jon.

I've been offline for the past couple of days but the situation
developing on the models looks very serious indeed for north-west
Europe and Scandinavia - I realise that the Norway and Sweden are used
to such conditions but this looks severe even by their standards -
especially with the run of mild winters up until a couple of years ago

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Well I wouldn't bet on it. EC's 500hPa ensemble mean continues to look
well blocked out to day 10 and I can't see that changing very quickly
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...0!!chart.gi f

As always I'd pay little attention to the often volatile operational runs,
especially the fantasy GFS beyond day 5, and keep your eye on the trends
in the ENS output, e.g.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


Exactly I use the ENS output most of the time for my signals. Even the
spaghetti maps are useful if you know how to interpret them properly. For
example even at T+264 DT06z there is a good signal for the omega block well
to the west over Greenland putting UK in the cold cyclonic eastern arm. The
block even being a tad further west than the last one meaning that western
areas will likely see more snow as lows get stuck over UK in very cold air.

Will
--

"Scott W" wrote in message
...

I've been offline for the past couple of days but the situation
developing on the models looks very serious indeed for north-west
Europe and Scandinavia - I realise that the Norway and Sweden are used
to such conditions but this looks severe even by their standards -
especially with the run of mild winters up until a couple of years ago

I agree and the last few weeks will have only served to pre-condition the
ground for what's to come and of course many areas are still buried under it
all
http://metofficenews.files.wordpress...10/12/snow.jpg
- presumably they'll be a thaw over the weekend with air temperatures
broadly in the range +6 to +8.

Jon.

Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Keith,

I wouldn't worry about a green xmas, the coldest snowiest winter ever as far
as I'm concerned 1979 (too young for 1963) , had a very mild spell Dec 25th
to 28th.
The real severe weather kicked in on the 30th December and the rest is
history, as they say

Graham

On Dec 8, 5:27*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message

...

Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Well I wouldn't bet on it. EC's 500hPa ensemble mean continues to look well
blocked out to day 10 and I can't see that changing very quicklyhttp://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/f...

As always I'd pay little attention to the often volatile operational runs,
especially the fantasy GFS *beyond day 5, and keep your eye on the trends in
the ENS output, e.g.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Jon.

Not only the GFS operational but also the GFS ensemble mean, although
there's a lot of deviation from the mean. Still something to consider.
Going to need to wait for the 12Z ECMWF ensembles.....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m16.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz50016.gif

On Dec 8, 6:51*pm, Alan wrote:
On Dec 8, 5:27*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:



"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message

....

Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Well I wouldn't bet on it. EC's 500hPa ensemble mean continues to look well
blocked out to day 10 and I can't see that changing very quicklyhttp://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/f...

As always I'd pay little attention to the often volatile operational runs,
especially the fantasy GFS *beyond day 5, and keep your eye on the trends in
the ENS output, e.g.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Jon.

Not only the GFS operational but also the GFS ensemble mean, although
there's a lot of deviation from the mean. Still something to consider.
Going to need to wait for the 12Z ECMWF ensembles.....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz...cs/Rz50016.gif

And don't forget I have a tenner riding on Waddington for a minimum of
one snowflake on 25th Dec!

its not called G-enerally F-orecasting S-hite for nothing.

On 08/12/2010 5:01 PM, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06& 12z

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home& Abroad"

Kirano wrote:
its not called G-enerally F-orecasting S-hite for nothing.


--------------------
I see santiago has gone back to Chile. But then you only do chilly don't
you.