The GFS is repeated showing Atlantic SWly's bathing and melting any snow
that might be still on the ground over the Christmas.

Joe B is now saying as much, so any extended cold spell through to the New
Year is now looking fragile

"SATURDAY EARLY



EUROPE TO WARM AROUND CHRISTMAS AND THROUGH THE NEW YEAR.

A break is coming a break is coming and not just some 3 day let up in the
northwest. In the wake of what will be a severely cold period for much
Europe through the 20th ( again the cold is coming back into the northwest
in a few days, I see a chance for warmth in larger scale, one that could
leave us with a break before there is any reloading, once we get to and
beyond Christmas. As is my habit, I just want to give you a heads up on what
is coming after a period of cold that will be something to be hold... and if
you be holding something, make sure you have your gloves on or your hands
may freeze on contact

thanks for reading ciao for now "


UKMO however are still saying

"UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Dec 2010 to Saturday 8 Jan 2011:
During the last week of December and the first week of January, easterly to
northerly winds are likely to persist over the UK. Therefore, temperatures
look set to remain well below average for much of the UK, with a risk of
widespread frost and ice. However, some southern and western parts may turn
less cold at times. Further snowfall is a distinct possibility in places.
Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many
or just above average along parts of the East Coast. Western regions of the
UK are most likely to see more in the way of drier weather. Hours of
sunshine should be around or slightly above average, particularly in western
parts of England and Wales.

Updated: 1142 on Fri 10 Dec 2010"



I'm getting to the stage where I just can't be bothered spending so much
time creating fictitious images in my head purely based on model watching
and silly forecasts but hardly ever panning out in reality.

On Dec 11, 10:53*am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
The GFS is repeated showing Atlantic SWly's bathing and melting any snow
that might be still on the ground over the Christmas.
A break is coming a break is coming
I'm getting to the stage where I just can't be bothered spending so much
time creating fictitious images in my head purely based on model watching
and silly forecasts but hardly ever panning out in reality.

Well there you go - sit back, relax and let it all unfold (until about
4pm this afternoon when the 12z GFS comes out and shows a different
scenario).

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Dec 11, 10:53 am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
The GFS is repeated showing Atlantic SWly's bathing and melting any snow
that might be still on the ground over the Christmas.
A break is coming a break is coming
I'm getting to the stage where I just can't be bothered spending so much
time creating fictitious images in my head purely based on model watching
and silly forecasts but hardly ever panning out in reality.

Well there you go - sit back, relax and let it all unfold (until about
4pm this afternoon when the 12z GFS comes out and shows a different
scenario).

Richard

Actually the GFS has been consistent with the mild change for the Christmas
period, I think this is now the fith run that its shown it.

On Dec 11, 11:20*am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...
On Dec 11, 10:53 am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

The GFS is repeated showing Atlantic SWly's bathing and melting any snow
that might be still on the ground over the Christmas.
A break is coming a break is coming
I'm getting to the stage where I just can't be bothered spending so much
time creating fictitious images in my head purely based on model watching
and silly forecasts but hardly ever panning out in reality.

Well there you go - sit back, relax and let it all unfold (until about
4pm this afternoon when the 12z GFS comes out and shows a different
scenario).

Richard

Actually the GFS has been consistent with the mild change for the Christmas
period, I think this is now the fith run that its shown it.

I might believe it if it was a forecast on the 18th, not the 11th.

Richard

On Dec 11, 11:27*am, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Dec 11, 11:20*am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:





"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...
On Dec 11, 10:53 am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

The GFS is repeated showing Atlantic SWly's bathing and melting any snow
that might be still on the ground over the Christmas.
A break is coming a break is coming
I'm getting to the stage where I just can't be bothered spending so much
time creating fictitious images in my head purely based on model watching
and silly forecasts but hardly ever panning out in reality.

Well there you go - sit back, relax and let it all unfold (until about
4pm this afternoon when the 12z GFS comes out and shows a different
scenario).

Richard

Actually the GFS has been consistent with the mild change for the Christmas
period, I think this is now the fith run that its shown it.

I might believe it if it was a forecast on the 18th, not the 11th.

Richard- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The updated Met Office outlook is now accepting this change of type as
a possibility. It would also fit with long term climatology where the
usual pre-Christmas cold and anticyclonic type is replaced by a
milder, wetter pattern, usually sometime between 24th and 26th Dec.

Dick Lovett

"Dick" wrote in message
...
On Dec 11, 11:27 am, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Dec 11, 11:20 am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:





"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...
On Dec 11, 10:53 am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

The GFS is repeated showing Atlantic SWly's bathing and melting any
snow
that might be still on the ground over the Christmas.
A break is coming a break is coming
I'm getting to the stage where I just can't be bothered spending so
much
time creating fictitious images in my head purely based on model
watching
and silly forecasts but hardly ever panning out in reality.

Well there you go - sit back, relax and let it all unfold (until about
4pm this afternoon when the 12z GFS comes out and shows a different
scenario).

Richard

Actually the GFS has been consistent with the mild change for the
Christmas
period, I think this is now the fith run that its shown it.

I might believe it if it was a forecast on the 18th, not the 11th.

Richard- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The updated Met Office outlook is now accepting this change of type as
a possibility. It would also fit with long term climatology where the
usual pre-Christmas cold and anticyclonic type is replaced by a
milder, wetter pattern, usually sometime between 24th and 26th Dec.

Dick Lovett

Yes I've seen that Dick. There seems to be some uncertainty to how far north
the milder weather will advance. I reckon all the way.

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
b.com...

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Dec 11, 10:53 am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
The GFS is repeated showing Atlantic SWly's bathing and melting any snow
that might be still on the ground over the Christmas.
A break is coming a break is coming
I'm getting to the stage where I just can't be bothered spending so much
time creating fictitious images in my head purely based on model watching
and silly forecasts but hardly ever panning out in reality.

Well there you go - sit back, relax and let it all unfold (until about
4pm this afternoon when the 12z GFS comes out and shows a different
scenario).

Richard

Actually the GFS has been consistent with the mild change for the
Christmas period, I think this is now the fith run that its shown it.

Would that be so bad, really?
Who wants travel chaoes over Christmas, people not being able
to get where they want, I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
A couple of inches or simply the stunning rime frost on the trees we
had at the start of this week would be great in order for things to
look 'festive'.

And anyway, yes the GFS has been going for this but at present
it's far beyond even T+240. It could just as easily 'flip' back to
a raging easterly on the next run....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Dec 11, 11:28*am, "Col" wrote:

And anyway, yes the GFS has been going for this but at present
it's far beyond even T+240. It could just as easily 'flip' back to
a raging easterly on the next run....

The EC T+240 also looks interestingly poised - enormous amount of
blocking to the north.

I think Lawrence may have done a uk.sci.weather first of "calling the
end of the next cold spell even before the cold spell has started".
Extraordinary effort.

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Dec 11, 11:28 am, "Col" wrote:

And anyway, yes the GFS has been going for this but at present
it's far beyond even T+240. It could just as easily 'flip' back to
a raging easterly on the next run....

The EC T+240 also looks interestingly poised - enormous amount of
blocking to the north.

I think Lawrence may have done a uk.sci.weather first of "calling the
end of the next cold spell even before the cold spell has started".
Extraordinary effort.

Richard

Sorry Richard its far worse, I'm talking about Christmas 2011!!!!

In article
,
Richard Dixon writes:
I think Lawrence may have done a uk.sci.weather first of "calling the
end of the next cold spell even before the cold spell has started".
Extraordinary effort.

Nah, I've seen several of those over the years.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)