I defy anybody to claim they know what is going to happen in a weeks
time. The divergence of the output is such that there is almost 17 degC
difference between highest and lowest GFS ensemble members (850 hPa) for
the whole period after the 20th. I'm reasonably confident that the
maximum temperature on Christmas Day will be between -2C and 10C.
Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
I defy anybody to claim they know what is going to happen in a weeks time.
The divergence of the output is such that there is almost 17 degC
difference between highest and lowest GFS ensemble members (850 hPa) for
the whole period after the 20th. I'm reasonably confident that the maximum
temperature on Christmas Day will be between -2C and 10C.
Dave

C'mon Dave no one can be that accurate give us a more general view.

On Dec 12, 12:15*am, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I defy anybody to claim they know what is going to happen in a weeks
time. The divergence of the output is such that there is almost 17 degC
difference between highest and lowest GFS ensemble members (850 hPa) for
* the whole period after the 20th. I'm reasonably confident that the
maximum temperature on Christmas Day will be between -2C and 10C.
Dave

Try looking at JMA, UKMO and ECMWF for further "customer
choice". My feeling is that it is going to be somewhat less cold than
the GFS runs shown in wetter3.de. As for the max on Christmas Day I'd
say you were being unfeasibly precise considering it's a fortnight
away, far more so than Suzanne Charlton who in December 1995 once
forecast that the min in Scotland on a particular night would be
between -3°C and -16°C. That should cover it but to be fair to her
she didn't have the time to elaborate, it being the 0030 R4 weather
slot when the pressure of scheduling is at its height as we all know.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
I defy anybody to claim they know what is going to happen in a weeks
time. The divergence of the output is such that there is almost 17 degC
difference between highest and lowest GFS ensemble members (850 hPa)
for the whole period after the 20th. I'm reasonably confident that the
maximum temperature on Christmas Day will be between -2C and 10C.
Dave

The 00Z shows a similar spread.

Incidentally, the scenario the models are showing of a low moving south
from Spitzbergen later this week (I still stick to the old convention
that Sunday is the first rather than last day of the week) reminds me a
lot of last February.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Dec 12, 12:15 am, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I defy anybody to claim they know what is going to happen in a weeks
time. The divergence of the output is such that there is almost 17 degC
difference between highest and lowest GFS ensemble members (850 hPa) for
the whole period after the 20th. I'm reasonably confident that the
maximum temperature on Christmas Day will be between -2C and 10C.
Dave

Try looking at JMA, UKMO and ECMWF for further "customer
choice". My feeling is that it is going to be somewhat less cold than
the GFS runs shown in wetter3.de. As for the max on Christmas Day I'd
say you were being unfeasibly precise considering it's a fortnight
away, far more so than Suzanne Charlton who in December 1995 once
forecast that the min in Scotland on a particular night would be
between -3°C and -16°C. That should cover it but to be fair to her
she didn't have the time to elaborate, it being the 0030 R4 weather
slot when the pressure of scheduling is at its height as we all know.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.
--------------------
I always look at all the models available Tudor, just noticed that the
spread was unusually high a week away even by GFS standards.
Not the 0030 Dec 1995 forecast! I bet she's glad you don't bear grudges ;-)
Dave