Looks to me like today's models mostly call for cold rain after the
weekend, leastwise south of the Pennines.

Still cold enough to be ambushed by icy roads on clearer mornings, but
generally looks like damp, raw weather.

Lovely.

On the upside - could well be another cracking ski season in Scotland
. Shame I don't ski.

On Dec 14, 10:04*am, Chris Smith wrote:
Looks to me like today's models mostly call for cold rain after the
weekend, leastwise south of the Pennines.

Still cold enough to be ambushed by icy roads on clearer mornings, but
generally looks like damp, raw weather.

Lovely.

On the upside - could well be another cracking ski season in Scotland
. Shame I don't ski.

Yes sadly looking more and more like a damp squib for the South East,
even by Sunday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.png

On Dec 14, 10:22*am, Alan wrote:
On Dec 14, 10:04*am, Chris Smith wrote:

Looks to me like today's models mostly call for cold rain after the
weekend, leastwise south of the Pennines.

Still cold enough to be ambushed by icy roads on clearer mornings, but
generally looks like damp, raw weather.

Lovely.

On the upside - could well be another cracking ski season in Scotland
. Shame I don't ski.

Yes sadly looking more and more like a damp squib for the South East,
even by Sunday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.png

That low is just too far north, it needs to be about 100-200 miles
further south. It just seems to be stagnating over the southern UK,
doubtless giving the sort of dark, dismal, dreary conditions that
characterised the second half of last February and made it seem like
spring was never coming. The low track seems to be in the worst
possible position for southern England. :-(

Oh well, at least next week we'll be past the shortest day and the
nights will be drawing out.

Nick

On Dec 14, 10:22*am, Alan wrote:
On Dec 14, 10:04*am, Chris Smith wrote:

Looks to me like today's models mostly call for cold rain after the
weekend, leastwise south of the Pennines.

Still cold enough to be ambushed by icy roads on clearer mornings, but
generally looks like damp, raw weather.

Lovely.

On the upside - could well be another cracking ski season in Scotland
. Shame I don't ski.

Yes sadly looking more and more like a damp squib for the South East,
even by Sunday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.png

So if this forecast is correct, it's just one run of the GFS at over
120 hours so still some doubt, then the surface dew point temperatures
are at +2C over Southern England, with an indicated freezing level of
500m so that precipitation is likely to be nothing but cold rain, even
Haytor may see a mix of rain/sleet! Let's hope either my
interpretation [very possibly] or the forecast is incorrect.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1298.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1293.gif

On Tuesday 14 Dec 2010 10:37, Nick scribbled:


Oh well, at least next week we'll be past the shortest day and the
nights will be drawing out.


The nights are just starting to draw out.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
It was raining cats and dogs and I fell in a poodle. [Chic
Murray(1919-1985)]

On 14/12/2010 10:37, Nick wrote:
On Dec 14, 10:22 am, wrote:
On Dec 14, 10:04 am, Chris wrote:

Looks to me like today's models mostly call for cold rain after the
weekend, leastwise south of the Pennines.

Still cold enough to be ambushed by icy roads on clearer mornings, but
generally looks like damp, raw weather.

Lovely.

On the upside - could well be another cracking ski season in Scotland
. Shame I don't ski.

Yes sadly looking more and more like a damp squib for the South East,
even by Sunday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.png

That low is just too far north, it needs to be about 100-200 miles
further south. It just seems to be stagnating over the southern UK,
doubtless giving the sort of dark, dismal, dreary conditions that
characterised the second half of last February and made it seem like
spring was never coming. The low track seems to be in the worst
possible position for southern England. :-(

Oh well, at least next week we'll be past the shortest day and the
nights will be drawing out.

Nick

You'll be pass the earliest sunset by the 16th December. Thou the
latest sunrise won't be until the 27th December.

--
Joe Egginton
Wolverhampton
175m asl

On Dec 14, 10:22*am, Alan wrote:
On Dec 14, 10:04*am, Chris Smith wrote:

Looks to me like today's models mostly call for cold rain after the
weekend, leastwise south of the Pennines.

Still cold enough to be ambushed by icy roads on clearer mornings, but
generally looks like damp, raw weather.

Lovely.

On the upside - could well be another cracking ski season in Scotland
. Shame I don't ski.

Yes sadly looking more and more like a damp squib for the South East,
even by Sunday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.png

I'm not so sure. You might have to be pretty far south for rain rather
than snow Friday night/Saturday. That's a pretty cold low. Could be
quite a dumping of snow somewhere, maybe across eastern England
(although I'm not going to try to pin it down geographically at this
stage). Maybe less cold Sunday/Monday .

Before that the greatest snow threat is of course the north and west
on Thursday and Friday. By the time Thursday's cold front get to
southern England it'll give a fairly brief shot of sleet/snow, and the
main danger will be ice in the rush hour as temperatures rapidly drop.

Stephen.

In article
,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
Nice day here at Southend-on-Sea, sunny and reasonably mild, no frost
last night. Current temp is 4.4°C, and I can't believe I called that
mild!

Neither can I. The last couple of years have moved the goalposts. Back
in say 2007 we'd have been calling that cold.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article
,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
Nice day here at Southend-on-Sea, sunny and reasonably mild, no frost
last night. Current temp is 4.4°C, and I can't believe I called that
mild!

Neither can I. The last couple of years have moved the goalposts. Back
in say 2007 we'd have been calling that cold.

Indeed.
I reached 3.0C today, which in normal circumstances would
be considered a pretty cold day in any winter month, but by
today's standards it doesn't seem cold at all.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

"Chris Smith" wrote in message
...
Looks to me like today's models mostly call for cold rain after the
weekend, leastwise south of the Pennines.


No they don't. Just look at the ensembles and the 12Z runs. It is panning
out precisely as I expected yesterday. People may not believe it still but
southern Britain is likely to have some snowfalls right through to at least
Wednesday next week with a complex area of low pressure persisting with
small mesoscale lows meandering around in cold sub -5C at 850 hpa air.
Southern coasts could see less snowy conditions but even here snow in any
heavy precipitation brought in on a S or SE wind off a cold France (by
then).

An historic spell is on the way!

I have issued a special update on my weekly forecast for Dartmoor. Something
I have only ever done once before.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Eskimo Will
--