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Old September 13th 03, 07:12 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (13/09/03)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0612z, 13/09/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure is located to the SW of Iceland, while high pressure covers
France, the Low Countries and SE England. SW'lies are the result, strongest
over NW Scotland. The winds become SSW'lies at T+144 as a trough moves close
to Ireland. By T+168 the trough has become a secondary low covering Scotland
and Northern Ireland; westerlies and SW'lies cover England and Wales.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
A trough lies over eastern areas of the UK, from a deep low to the south of
Iceland. Winds are southerlies in the far eastern regions of the UK, with
WSW'lies elsewhere. The winds become strong westerlies at T+144 as a
secondary low moves eastwards over northern Scotland and over the North Sea.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
SW'lies cover the UK, with low pressure to the SE of Iceland and high
pressure over southern Europe. The SW'lies continue at T+120, bringing
850hPa temperatures of +8C to northern Scotland and +16C to SW England. A
small high forms to the NW of the UK at T+144, bringing light and variable
winds to Scotland. The remainder of the UK lies under light SW or westerly
winds. The high moves swiftly eastwards at T+168 to be replaced by a low to
the west of Scotland; this leads to strong southerlies for most. The low
moves NE'wards on day 8, leaving SW'lies over the UK. The winds become
southerlies on day 9 due to a small low to the SW of Ireland. The low fills
and drifts SE'wards on day 10, with light southerlies for England and Wales,
westerlies for Scotland and northerlies for Northern Ireland.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1081.gif
The UK lies under SW'lies, with a similar setup to the GFS and ECM runs. Low
pressure lies to the NW, with a high to the SE. There's little change at
T+120, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from +7C over northern Scotland to
+15C over southern England. By T+144, WSW'lies cover the UK as the Icelandic
Low moves ENE'wards to the west of Norway.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Low pressure lies to the SE of Iceland, resulting in moderate WSW'lies over
the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from +4C over the Western Isles to +13C
over southern England.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
Unavailable at time of issue.

In summary, today's runs show a SW'ly or WSW'ly flow over the UK for the
middle of next week, with northern and western areas seeing the least
settled conditions.



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