A certain amount of meteorological knowledge to actually interpret the
charts (it is DIY with no text
interpretation) is also desirable.
----------------------
No use for Coldy then.

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Agreed. They're the gfs ensembles. Past the 28th anything could happen
and it *could* be a very zonal set-up into the new year,

That wouldn't be surprising, as it often happens just after Christmas.
Sometimes after a week or so the cold returns, as in 1981-2 and last
winter. The GFS and ECM 00Z runs certainly seem to suggest that (though
the ECM ensemble seems to be delayed and I haven't seen it yet). The GFS
ensemble still suggests a wide range of possible outcomes, though, this
time the 850mb temps starting to diverge as early as the 23rd.

with a
European high encroaching into southern England. 70F in an English
winter, for the first time, later in the winter anyone? *))

I doubt that will happen this year. The seas surrounding us must be
cooler than average by now, and would take some warming up.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Dec 19, 9:57*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Agreed. They're the gfs ensembles. Past the 28th anything could happen
and it *could* be a very zonal set-up into the new year,

That wouldn't be surprising, as it often happens just after Christmas.
Sometimes after a week or so the cold returns, as in 1981-2 and last
winter. The GFS and ECM 00Z runs certainly seem to suggest that (though
the ECM ensemble seems to be delayed and I haven't seen it yet). The GFS
ensemble still suggests a wide range of possible outcomes, though, this
time the 850mb temps starting to diverge as early as the 23rd.

with a
European high encroaching into southern England. 70F in an English
winter, for the first time, later in the winter anyone? *))

I doubt that will happen this year. The seas surrounding us must be
cooler than *average by now, and would take some warming up.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * *"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
* * * * * * * * will hardly mind anything else."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

Me too - hence the smiley!

In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Agreed. They're the gfs ensembles. Past the 28th anything could happen
and it *could* be a very zonal set-up into the new year,

That wouldn't be surprising, as it often happens just after Christmas.
Sometimes after a week or so the cold returns, as in 1981-2 and last
winter. The GFS and ECM 00Z runs certainly seem to suggest that

I meant the onset of zonality. Any possible return to cold conditions is
of course still too far away to appear.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Dec 19, 9:57*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Agreed. They're the gfs ensembles. Past the 28th anything could happen
and it *could* be a very zonal set-up into the new year,

That wouldn't be surprising, as it often happens just after Christmas.
Sometimes after a week or so the cold returns, as in 1981-2 and last
winter. The GFS and ECM 00Z runs certainly seem to suggest that (though
the ECM ensemble seems to be delayed and I haven't seen it yet). The GFS
ensemble still suggests a wide range of possible outcomes, though, this
time the 850mb temps starting to diverge as early as the 23rd.

with a
European high encroaching into southern England. 70F in an English
winter, for the first time, later in the winter anyone? *))

I doubt that will happen this year. The seas surrounding us must be
cooler than *average by now, and would take some warming up.

Me too - hence the smiley!

The operational 06Z GFS changes things, with no incursion of the
Atlantic right out to the end of the run. Of course, it's only one run.
It also shows a small low crossing southern England on the night of the
24th/25th, so those betting on a White Christmas could yet be in the
money.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

"John Hall" wrote in message
...


The operational 06Z GFS changes things, with no incursion of the
Atlantic right out to the end of the run. Of course, it's only one run.
It also shows a small low crossing southern England on the night of the
24th/25th, so those betting on a White Christmas could yet be in the
money.

That's quite a flip-flop isn't it?
From raging zonality to a hugh blocking high from one run to another.
But this is a case in point as to why I think the GFS is unfairly
maligned. It forecasts much further ahead (or at least publishes further
ahead) than the other models so it's bound to be seen to change
it's mind more than the others.

Lawrence will enjoy this one, just as long as he doesn't
necessarily *believe* it
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

In article ,
Col writes:

"John Hall" wrote in message
.. .


The operational 06Z GFS changes things, with no incursion of the
Atlantic right out to the end of the run. Of course, it's only one run.
It also shows a small low crossing southern England on the night of the
24th/25th, so those betting on a White Christmas could yet be in the
money.

That's quite a flip-flop isn't it?
From raging zonality to a hugh blocking high from one run to another.
But this is a case in point as to why I think the GFS is unfairly
maligned. It forecasts much further ahead (or at least publishes further
ahead) than the other models so it's bound to be seen to change
it's mind more than the others.

True. It also forecasts every 6 hours rather than every 12, so has twice
as many opportunities to change.

Lawrence will enjoy this one, just as long as he doesn't
necessarily *believe* it


--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Dec 19, 11:02*am, "Col" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...



The operational 06Z GFS changes things, with no incursion of the
Atlantic right out to the end of the run. Of course, it's only one run.
It also shows a small low crossing southern England on the night of the
24th/25th, so those betting on a White Christmas could yet be in the
money.

That's quite a flip-flop isn't it?
From raging zonality to a hugh blocking high from one run to another.
But this is a case in point as to why I think the GFS is unfairly
maligned. It forecasts much further ahead (or at least publishes further
ahead) than the other models so it's bound to be seen to change
it's mind more than the others.

Lawrence will enjoy this one, just as long as he doesn't
necessarily *believe* it
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Cold outlier, Col.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Dec 19, 11:02*am, "Col" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...



The operational 06Z GFS changes things, with no incursion of the
Atlantic right out to the end of the run. Of course, it's only one run.
It also shows a small low crossing southern England on the night of the
24th/25th, so those betting on a White Christmas could yet be in the
money.

That's quite a flip-flop isn't it?
From raging zonality to a hugh blocking high from one run to another.
But this is a case in point as to why I think the GFS is unfairly
maligned. It forecasts much further ahead (or at least publishes further
ahead) than the other models so it's bound to be seen to change
it's mind more than the others.

Lawrence will enjoy this one, just as long as he doesn't
necessarily *believe* it

Cold outlier, Col.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Yep. Hardly a surprise, However it does have some support from other
ensemble members.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Dec 18, 7:16*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreement and consistency for me.

**At T240, on 28th Dec 2010, mild Atlantic air will have invaded the
UK and the cold of December will be over, at least for a while. An
Atlantic regime will be operative, though the change to this milder
air will probably be slow and messy, with a wintry mix as Atlantic
fronts push eastwards. By the 28th, the majority of the country will
be frost free on a night and precipitation in lowland areas will be of
rain and not snow in almost all areas. Much milder temperatures than
those at present, will be recorded on the 28th in all areas. If the
thaw is rapid, flooding could be a problem for some. **

There you go. Whether the mildness lasts, or the cold returns, is
another matter and not knowable at present, IMO.

Not bad at 10 days. Rain, rather than snow is falling in most parts of
lowland UK this evening, if there is any precipitation. Frost will be
limited to some NE areas tonight and most areas will probably be frost
free. Temperatures in all areas are significantly milder than on the
18th, though the change to an Atlantic regime has been slow, messy and
may well not last long. The MetO was still sticking to its cold guns
at this time 10 days ago, as were many other people, but the models
were actually pointing to this breakdown and pattern change very well.