On Dec 19, 1:52*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 19, 1:26*pm, "Graham" wrote:

Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

Nice of them to agree with me. *))

We could all be wrong, of course and I wish the MetO would give some
idea of their confidence in this outcome. However, that would involve
them in some expense in training the tea boy who writes the 6-15 day
precis and in these times of budget cuts.............

"UK Outlook for Friday 24 Dec 2010 to Sunday 2 Jan 2011:
Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some
freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK for the first few
days. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected at
times. Over parts of southern England it is likely to become less cold
and the snow will probably turn to rain at times beyond the Christmas
weekend. Some central and northern parts of the UK may remain
generally dry. The unsettled weather with rain, sleet or snow at times
is expected to continue across the north and perhaps the east of the
country later next week and probably into the following week. Probably
becoming less cold across much of the UK later in the period, with
temperatures returning to nearer normal and precipitation mainly
falling as rain.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 19 Dec 2010"

10 days of weather, at the single most exciting time of the year, in a
paltry 150 words. Not a single word of explanation as to why they feel
this may happen, or why it has changed so much from yesterday and no
idea whatsoever as to how confident they are in the forecast.

We really do deserve better.

...............and as I said, we could all be wrong. Neither the 12z
gfs, nor the 12z ECM support the milder option tonight.

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
..............and as I said, we could all be wrong. Neither the 12z
gfs, nor the 12z ECM support the milder option tonight.

You must be looking at a different 12Z ECM from me! The operational run
generates a very deep and slow-moving low in the Atlantic that pushes
southwesterlies and westerlies across the UK from Christmas Day onwards.
It could hardly be more different from the operational 12Z GFS, which
sticks an intense High over the UK for most of the post-Christmas week.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
..............and as I said, we could all be wrong. Neither the 12z
gfs, nor the 12z ECM support the milder option tonight.

You must be looking at a different 12Z ECM from me! The operational run
generates a very deep and slow-moving low in the Atlantic that pushes
southwesterlies and westerlies across the UK from Christmas Day onwards.
It could hardly be more different from the operational 12Z GFS, which
sticks an intense High over the UK for most of the post-Christmas week.


Looking at
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php
the 12Z ECM is an outlier.
There have been 3 broad solutions so far (in all models):
1. Rapid return to Sw'lies
2. Build of pressure over UK then a battleground
3. Faster build of pressure over Scandinavia and a quick return to an
easterly.

Will
--

On Dec 19, 7:42*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
..............and as I said, we could all be wrong. Neither the 12z
gfs, nor the 12z ECM support the milder option tonight.

You must be looking at a different 12Z ECM from me! The operational run
generates a very deep and slow-moving low in the Atlantic that pushes
southwesterlies and westerlies across the UK from Christmas Day onwards.
It could hardly be more different from the operational 12Z GFS, which
sticks an intense High over the UK for most of the post-Christmas week.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * *"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
* * * * * * * * will hardly mind anything else."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

True John. How odd. I must have looked at the gfs twice! The
difference between the two models is stark!

On 2010-12-19, Nick wrote:
Well, autumn started in August and winter in November this year, so
why not spring in February :-)

It sounds like England is moving to the Celtic calendar. Some of us
already think in terms of those dates. The Irish do, pretty universally,
even if most Welsh and Scottish people have forgotten it.

Adrian

In article ,
Adrian writes:
On 2010-12-19, Nick wrote:
Well, autumn started in August and winter in November this year, so
why not spring in February :-)

It sounds like England is moving to the Celtic calendar. Some of us
already think in terms of those dates. The Irish do, pretty universally,
even if most Welsh and Scottish people have forgotten it.

Adrian

Apparently in the Middle Ages, and perhaps later, February was regarded
as a spring month, because that was when crops were planted for the
coming year.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

In message
,
Natsman writes

I suspect that they've been following Joe *******i, having realised
that he's invariably more accurate than THEY are, on balance.
They could be on to something, which begs the question, who needs the
Met Office, anyway?

CK

Hahahahahaha

You do make me laugh, a hard line rightard hypocrite, enjoying the
benefits of living in a leftish country.

What a ****.
--

Jim

On Dec 19, 7:54*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message
...

You must be looking at a different 12Z ECM from me! The operational run
generates a very deep and slow-moving low in the Atlantic that pushes
southwesterlies and westerlies across the UK from Christmas Day onwards..
It could hardly be more different from the operational 12Z GFS, which
sticks an intense High over the UK for most of the post-Christmas week.

Looking athttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php
the 12Z ECM is an outlier.
There have been 3 broad solutions so far (in all models):
1. Rapid return to Sw'lies
2. Build of pressure over UK then a battleground
3. Faster build of pressure over Scandinavia and a quick return to an
easterly.

Ihave some thunder type spells showing up. Not sure how a greenland
high will affect them though:

2010
13 Dec 13 59 this one is the same as
21 Dec 08 13 this one
28 Dec 04 18

2011
4 Jan 09 03 Cb
12 Jan 11 31 Anticyclonic
19 Jan 21 21 Cb
26 Jan 12 57 wet and warm

I remember reading a pdf you wrote about the cloudburst type weather
we sometimes get. You said something diametrically opposed to my
belief about thunder storm peaks June July August.

If these two fail to appear the reason will be an explanation to your
error in that.
Sorry I can't remember the title off..ahem..hand... errm
nor the address too neither.

On 19/12/2010 22:05, John Hall wrote:
In ,
writes:
On 2010-12-19, wrote:
Well, autumn started in August and winter in November this year, so
why not spring in February :-)
It sounds like England is moving to the Celtic calendar. Some of us
already think in terms of those dates. The Irish do, pretty universally,
even if most Welsh and Scottish people have forgotten it.

Adrian
Apparently in the Middle Ages, and perhaps later, February was regarded
as a spring month, because that was when crops were planted for the
coming year.

Because we have now had the cold weather that bulbs, etc, need to "feel"
to know that winter has passed, should we get milder weather in late
January / early February (as some forecasters have predicted) and it
raises the soil temperatures enough, we could actually have a
spectacularly early Spring.

With Easter so late in 2011, it could be tulips rather than daffodils
for "Mothering Sunday".

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read

In article ,
Yokel writes:
Because we have now had the cold weather that bulbs, etc, need to
"feel" to know that winter has passed, should we get milder weather in
late January / early February (as some forecasters have predicted) and
it raises the soil temperatures enough, we could actually have a
spectacularly early Spring.

I believe that happened in 1890-1 when, following a bitter December and
first half of January, February was benign. But then the SW had a
classic blizzard in early March.

With Easter so late in 2011, it could be tulips rather than daffodils
for "Mothering Sunday".


--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)