Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

On Dec 19, 1:26*pm, "Graham" wrote:
Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

I've always had that outcome in mind as this came so early.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On Dec 19, 1:26*pm, "Graham" wrote:
Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

Nice of them to agree with me. *))

We could all be wrong, of course and I wish the MetO would give some
idea of their confidence in this outcome. However, that would involve
them in some expense in training the tea boy who writes the 6-15 day
precis and in these times of budget cuts.............

"UK Outlook for Friday 24 Dec 2010 to Sunday 2 Jan 2011:
Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some
freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK for the first few
days. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected at
times. Over parts of southern England it is likely to become less cold
and the snow will probably turn to rain at times beyond the Christmas
weekend. Some central and northern parts of the UK may remain
generally dry. The unsettled weather with rain, sleet or snow at times
is expected to continue across the north and perhaps the east of the
country later next week and probably into the following week. Probably
becoming less cold across much of the UK later in the period, with
temperatures returning to nearer normal and precipitation mainly
falling as rain.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 19 Dec 2010"

10 days of weather, at the single most exciting time of the year, in a
paltry 150 words. Not a single word of explanation as to why they feel
this may happen, or why it has changed so much from yesterday and no
idea whatsoever as to how confident they are in the forecast.

We really do deserve better.

On Dec 19, 2:52*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 19, 1:26*pm, "Graham" wrote:

Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

Nice of them to agree with me. *))

We could all be wrong, of course and I wish the MetO would give some
idea of their confidence in this outcome. However, that would involve
them in some expense in training the tea boy who writes the 6-15 day
precis and in these times of budget cuts.............

"UK Outlook for Friday 24 Dec 2010 to Sunday 2 Jan 2011:
Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some
freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK for the first few
days. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected at
times. Over parts of southern England it is likely to become less cold
and the snow will probably turn to rain at times beyond the Christmas
weekend. Some central and northern parts of the UK may remain
generally dry. The unsettled weather with rain, sleet or snow at times
is expected to continue across the north and perhaps the east of the
country later next week and probably into the following week. Probably
becoming less cold across much of the UK later in the period, with
temperatures returning to nearer normal and precipitation mainly
falling as rain.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 19 Dec 2010"

10 days of weather, at the single most exciting time of the year, in a
paltry 150 words. Not a single word of explanation as to why they feel
this may happen, or why it has changed so much from yesterday and no
idea whatsoever as to how confident they are in the forecast.

We really do deserve better.

I suspect that they've been following Joe *******i, having realised
that he's invariably more accurate than THEY are, on balance.
They could be on to something, which begs the question, who needs the
Met Office, anyway?

CK

On Dec 19, 2:11*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:

Sorry, I must have missed the bit in his winter forecast that said the
first part of the winter would see some parts of the UK having it's
coldest, snowiest spell for over a hundred years (certain localities)and
almost everywhere having snow and severe cold. Luckily for us the UKMO
spotted it early and stuck to it.

Credit where it's due. Hopefully they're on to something with many
more levels in the stratosphere in their new forecast model: in
"hindcasting" last winter with the new methodology gets the cold too.
All these little iterative seasonal forecasting improvements are
heartening.

Richard

In article ,
Graham writes:
Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing day
into the new year.

I guess they've been reading Dawlish's posts. To be serious, given
recent model runs it's only to be expected. However I don't think that
it's a done deal yet.

So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the
bitter December would give us a Winter above average, so not that
historic

Yep. See my post in another thread.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On 19/12/2010 14:15, Pete B wrote:
"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
On Dec 19, 1:26 pm, "Graham" wrote:
Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing
day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the
bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

I've always had that outcome in mind as this came so early.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Exactly as what happened in Dec 1981/Jan 1982 then.

After the December 1981/early Jan 1982 cold spells with both English &
Scottish temperature records broken or equalled, the mildness came
back mid Jan so January 1982 as a whole was not an exceptional month,
overall CET value of 2.6. February 1982 was a mild month with a CET
value of 4.8, higher than any 1970's Feb apart from 1974 & 1977 and a
value not to be reached again until Feb 1988.

I've also felt that this will be the way, so often in my personal
experience, early starting winters like this beginning late November
seem to change around New Year when the Sun's angle in the NH starts
increasing significantly.

You may be right about the weather often changing around New Year time -
but normally it is the other way, colder later on.

The sun stays more than 20 degrees south of the equator from about the
third week in November to the third week in January. In all this time
its height in the sky at mid-day varies by no more than about 6 or 7
times its apparent diameter. The sun's "declination" (to give it the
technical name) north or south has a sine dependence with date, not
linear between the solstices.

So whatever causes the change in type at New Year, it is not the sun's
northward return. The sun does not really start to rise a lot higher in
the sky until February comes round. Have a look at the "polar night"
dates for north Norway, only a few degrees north of the Arctic Circle.
They are normally late January for the sun's return.

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read

On Dec 19, 5:31*pm, Yokel wrote:
On 19/12/2010 14:15, Pete B wrote:

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
On Dec 19, 1:26 pm, "Graham" wrote:
Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing
day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the
bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

I've always had that outcome in mind as this came so early.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Exactly as what happened in Dec 1981/Jan 1982 then.

After the December 1981/early Jan 1982 cold spells with both English &
Scottish temperature records broken or equalled, the mildness came
back mid Jan so January 1982 as a whole was not an exceptional month,
overall CET value of 2.6. February 1982 was a mild month with a CET
value of 4.8, higher than any 1970's Feb apart from 1974 & 1977 and a
value not to be reached again until Feb 1988.

I've also felt that this will be the way, so often in my personal
experience, early starting winters like this beginning late November
seem to change around New Year when the Sun's angle in the NH starts
increasing significantly.

You may be right about the weather often changing around New Year time -
but normally it is the other way, colder later on.

The sun stays more than 20 degrees south of the equator from about the
third week in November to the third week in January. *In all this time
its height in the sky at mid-day varies by no more than about 6 or 7
times its apparent diameter. *The sun's "declination" (to give it the
technical name) north or south has a sine dependence with date, not
linear between the solstices.

So whatever causes the change in type at New Year, it is not the sun's
northward return. *The sun does not really start to rise a lot higher in
the sky until February comes round. *Have a look at the "polar night"
dates for north Norway, only a few degrees north of the Arctic Circle. *
They are normally late January for the sun's return.

I'd agree with that - while the nights are already drawing out at new
year it only really becomes noticeable in late January, around the
20th when the afternoons are noticeably lighter. The earliest
occurrences of true spring-like weather tend to happen late January
too, while the increased intensity of the midday sun tends to be
noticeable early February.

Nick

On Dec 19, 3:24*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

*Graham writes:
Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing day
into the new year.

I guess they've been reading Dawlish's posts. To be serious, given
recent model runs it's only to be expected. However I don't think that
it's a done deal yet.

So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the
bitter December would give us a Winter above average, so not that
historic

Yep. See my post in another thread.
--
John Hall

Well, autumn started in August and winter in November this year, so
why not spring in February :-)
A cold frosty anticyclonic January and a mild dry February would sound
good.

Nick

Nick wrote:

On Dec 19, 5:31*pm, Yokel wrote:
On 19/12/2010 14:15, Pete B wrote:

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
On Dec 19, 1:26 pm, "Graham" wrote:
Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing
day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the
bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

I've always had that outcome in mind as this came so early.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Exactly as what happened in Dec 1981/Jan 1982 then.

After the December 1981/early Jan 1982 cold spells with both English &
Scottish temperature records broken or equalled, the mildness came
back mid Jan so January 1982 as a whole was not an exceptional month,
overall CET value of 2.6. February 1982 was a mild month with a CET
value of 4.8, higher than any 1970's Feb apart from 1974 & 1977 and a
value not to be reached again until Feb 1988.

I've also felt that this will be the way, so often in my personal
experience, early starting winters like this beginning late November
seem to change around New Year when the Sun's angle in the NH starts
increasing significantly.

You may be right about the weather often changing around New Year time -
but normally it is the other way, colder later on.

The sun stays more than 20 degrees south of the equator from about the
third week in November to the third week in January. *In all this time
its height in the sky at mid-day varies by no more than about 6 or 7
times its apparent diameter. *The sun's "declination" (to give it the
technical name) north or south has a sine dependence with date, not
linear between the solstices.

So whatever causes the change in type at New Year, it is not the sun's
northward return. *The sun does not really start to rise a lot higher in
the sky until February comes round. *Have a look at the "polar night"
dates for north Norway, only a few degrees north of the Arctic Circle. *
They are normally late January for the sun's return.

I'd agree with that - while the nights are already drawing out at new
year it only really becomes noticeable in late January, around the
20th when the afternoons are noticeably lighter. The earliest
occurrences of true spring-like weather tend to happen late January
too, while the increased intensity of the midday sun tends to be
noticeable early February.

Nick

There's a lot of truth in the saying

"As the days grow longer the cold grows stronger"

On average, the coldest period is late January/early February, though perhaps
not this winter!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.