Yes, the GFS has flipped back again and now keeps average surface temps
in the CET area well below zero all the way to the end of the year.

See
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...O=&PERI OD=51

And
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...WMO=&PERIOD=52

Some parts of the CET zone are forecast to never get above zero again
this year.

And once again tonight's 18z run swings back to cold and the atlantic
never really breaks through. Interestingly though it forcasts rain not
snow even over areas which it says have a 2m temp of -1C at the time. Hmmm.

Looks again to me that the December 1890 record low December temp is
projected to be smashed by this run. Oh well it will probably have
flipped back to mild by tmoorrow :-)


On 22/12/2010 00:07, Alan Greig wrote:
Yes, the GFS has flipped back again and now keeps average surface temps
in the CET area well below zero all the way to the end of the year.
.

On Wed, 22 Dec 2010 23:15:09 +0000, Alan Greig
wrote:

And once again tonight's 18z run swings back to cold and the atlantic
never really breaks through. Interestingly though it forcasts rain not
snow even over areas which it says have a 2m temp of -1C at the time. Hmmm.

Looks again to me that the December 1890 record low December temp is
projected to be smashed by this run. Oh well it will probably have
flipped back to mild by tmoorrow :-)

Using the Met Office 5 day forecasts for Southampton, and the GFS
forecast 2m. max/mins beyond that, we are currently on course here in
Fareham to beat Southampton's coldest December of the 20th Century
1933 (since 1890 in fact) by about 1 degree celsius. Southampton data
is from the Met Office website.

My projected mean temperature here is +0.3 deg C so in spite of the
relative lack of lying snow down here compared to most of the UK, and
Southampton being a larger city than the town of Fareham, it will
almost certainly be a remarkable month. Fareham is closer to the sea
than is Southampton and that is likely to have at least partially
offset the additional urbanization of the Southampton data.

--
Dave
Fareham (W)

In article ,
Alan Greig writes:
And once again tonight's 18z run swings back to cold and the atlantic
never really breaks through. Interestingly though it forcasts rain not
snow even over areas which it says have a 2m temp of -1C at the time.
Hmmm.

Warmer air aloft? The 850mb temperature would be a guide.

Looks again to me that the December 1890 record low December temp is
projected to be smashed by this run. Oh well it will probably have
flipped back to mild by tmoorrow :-)

The 00Z looked milder, the 06Z colder again.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)