"Col" wrote in message
...
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:



Not any more Keith you need to understand that the cooling has set in
in earnest the last several months. Don't forget local weather
doesn't equate to objective globla measurement.

If cooling has set in in earnest during the last few months it
hasm't yet had an effect on Arctic sea ice which is looking
pretty woeful at the moment.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Yes I know this is a 'snapshot' at any one time driven
by synoptics rather than climate change but I thought it worth
mentioning as this graph is often used (misused?) by the
deniers as 'evidence' when there is rather more ice than
one might expect.

I wonder that if this cooling is real, when we will see this graph
trending to more ice.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl


Surely the Arctic ice is effect by NH synoptics, when there's major blocking
with northerly's like recently exporting fridgid arctic air all the way down
to western europe, eastern asia and the midwest to the eastern seaboard USA
then warm air has to replace it. As Ian Currie mentioned recently it's as if
you've left the fridge/freezer doors open. Cold frigid air pours out and
warm air replaces it so before you jnow where you are your pork chops are
defrosting. What goes up must come down. Lets face western Europe has just
gone through an exceptional cold period and somewhere along the way the
balance has to be paid.

I did say in two posts that I was wondering whether this was some sort of
error in the measurements and if not well then of course its only been over
several days, never the less its hard to find such sharp dips in temperaure
over the last 12 years as plotted by the surface layer ch04

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem....csh?amsutemps

"Stewart Robert Hinsley" wrote in message
...
In message om, Lawrence
Jenkins writes

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
On Dec 29, 10:36 pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
At first I thought this was a mistake, a quirk, but no there seems to
have
been a remarkable plunge in the near surface temperature record
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem....csh?amsutemps

It is now lower for the 28th December 2010 than at any time since
1998;
that
is some drop that I've seen no one else predict bar Joe who has been
proclaiming this would happen since this time last year. Surely he
deserves
some praise and not the petty treatment he gets here on many an
occasion.

--------------------
Well done Joe, unbelievable ;-)
Dave

I thought someone posted on here a while ago saying that globally 2010
was going to be the third warmest year on record, have I mistaken
something?

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"


Not any more Keith you need to understand that the cooling has set in in
earnest the last several months.

If you look at your own source you'll see that there is an annual
variation in global mean temperature. (This is a result of the greater
proportion of land in the northern hemisphere, and hence greater
hemispheric annual variation.) The cooling over the last several months is
normal.

Don't forget local weather doesn't equate
to objective globla measurement.


Also, don't forget that short term fluctuations don't equate to climate.

In the specific case of the sharp fall in global temperatures over the
recent past, I suspect that is in part due to the albedo effects of snow
cover at lower latitudes.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover...r=2010&ui_day=
358&ui_set=2
--
Stewart Robert Hinsley

Yes albedo possibly but that iself is seen as a major factor in warming or
cooling, its part of the mechansim.

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
On Dec 30, 9:11 am, Stewart Robert Hinsley
wrote:
In message om,
Lawrence Jenkins writes





"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
On Dec 29, 10:36 pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
At first I thought this was a mistake, a quirk, but no there seems to
have
been a remarkable plunge in the near surface temperature record
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem....csh?amsutemps

It is now lower for the 28th December 2010 than at any time since
1998;
that
is some drop that I've seen no one else predict bar Joe who has been
proclaiming this would happen since this time last year. Surely he
deserves
some praise and not the petty treatment he gets here on many an
occasion.

--------------------
Well done Joe, unbelievable ;-)
Dave

I thought someone posted on here a while ago saying that globally 2010
was going to be the third warmest year on record, have I mistaken
something?

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Not any more Keith you need to understand that the cooling has set in in
earnest the last several months.

If you look at your own source you'll see that there is an annual
variation in global mean temperature. (This is a result of the greater
proportion of land in the northern hemisphere, and hence greater
hemispheric annual variation.) The cooling over the last several months
is normal.

Don't forget local weather doesn't equate
to objective globla measurement.

Also, don't forget that short term fluctuations don't equate to climate.

In the specific case of the sharp fall in global temperatures over the
recent past, I suspect that is in part due to the albedo effects of snow
cover at lower latitudes.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover..._year=2010&ui_...
358&ui_set=2
--
Stewart Robert Hinsley

The point is, and this is the reason I mentioned it, is it seems you
can always dig up some definitive information to back up your views on
GW, one way or the other, so in the end it all become meaningless.

For me the shrinking of the arctic ice mass is the best thermometer,
which *may* reverse, but there's no obvious signs atm!

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"


There's far more sea ice in the SH then the NH Keith and that has been
running well above average these last several years and possibly long, so
why isn't that a thermometer? The major differnce is that the SH sea ice
due to open water in every directyions doesn't last as long in the SH summer
early autumn as it oes in the NH

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
On Thursday 30 Dec 2010 10:01, Dawlish scribbled:

On Dec 29, 10:09 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
At first I thought this was a mistake, a quirk, but no there seems to
have been a remarkable plunge in the near surface temperature
recordhttp://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps

It is now lower for the 28th December 2010 than at any time since 1998;
that is some drop that I've seen no one else predict bar Joe who has
been
proclaiming this would happen since this time last year. Surely he
deserves some praise and not the petty treatment he gets here on many
an
occasion.

????

Amazing. A superb performance. Lawrence too. Global temperatures
always fall towards December. Well done to Joe for predicting it and
Lawrence for thinking it means something. No-one else saw that annual
fall coming either. Terrific!!

laughing

BTW. Here's the actual near-surface AMSU-A temperatures. Nowhere near
"a remarkable plunge" and December's UAH figures will be out in a few
days time and will comfirm that. I think Lawrence has been at the
funny stuff over Christmas. *))

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001

To be fair to Lawrence, he is correct in saying that there is a remarkable
fall on the near-surface graph (ch04), but as it's only happened over the
past few days it does look like desperation - or a leg-pull perhaps? - to
draw the conclusions he does. Difference between 2009 and 2010 was -0.08C
on
the 25th and -0.89C on the 28th, the latest day for which data is
available.
Heck of a drop!


--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
It was raining cats and dogs and I fell in a poodle. [Chic
Murray(1919-1985)]


That's all I'm really saying Graham, that's why twice I posed the question
is this some sort of glich. Even if real and the temp doeos rise again it
was as you say a "heck of a drop" in such a short time period and jsut
doesn't look right.

"Alan LeHun" wrote in message
...
In article om,
says...
So I take it Alan that you feel the drop in near surface temperature is
not
a fact?


Maybe he feels that the drop in near surface temperature over such a
short period is not significant?

--
Alan LeHun

Alan the point is its a remarkable drop in such a short space of time. To be
fair I did link it to Joe B's prediction of global cooling over the next 30
years. However regardless that is some drop.

In message m,
Lawrence Jenkins writes

"Alan LeHun" wrote in message
...
In article om,
says...
So I take it Alan that you feel the drop in near surface temperature is
not
a fact?


Maybe he feels that the drop in near surface temperature over such a
short period is not significant?

--
Alan LeHun

Alan the point is its a remarkable drop in such a short space of time. To be
fair I did link it to Joe B's prediction of global cooling over the next 30
years. However regardless that is some drop.


Would you care to demonstrate that it is actually a remarkable drop.
First convert to a seasonally adjusted anomaly to remove the seasonal
cooling trend, and the compare with comparable periods over the last,
say, 10 years. Is it actually out of the ordinary?

(You might look at the "remarkable rise" at the end of December 2004.)
--
Stewart Robert Hinsley

"Stewart Robert Hinsley" wrote in message
...
In message m, Lawrence
Jenkins writes

"Alan LeHun" wrote in message
...
In article om,
says...
So I take it Alan that you feel the drop in near surface temperature is
not
a fact?


Maybe he feels that the drop in near surface temperature over such a
short period is not significant?

--
Alan LeHun

Alan the point is its a remarkable drop in such a short space of time. To
be
fair I did link it to Joe B's prediction of global cooling over the next
30
years. However regardless that is some drop.


Would you care to demonstrate that it is actually a remarkable drop. First
convert to a seasonally adjusted anomaly to remove the seasonal cooling
trend, and the compare with comparable periods over the last, say, 10
years. Is it actually out of the ordinary?

(You might look at the "remarkable rise" at the end of December 2004.)
--
Stewart Robert Hinsley

"Stewart Robert Hinsley" wrote in message
...
In message m, Lawrence
Jenkins writes

"Alan LeHun" wrote in message
...
In article om,
says...
So I take it Alan that you feel the drop in near surface temperature is
not
a fact?


Maybe he feels that the drop in near surface temperature over such a
short period is not significant?

--
Alan LeHun

Alan the point is its a remarkable drop in such a short space of time. To
be
fair I did link it to Joe B's prediction of global cooling over the next
30
years. However regardless that is some drop.


Would you care to demonstrate that it is actually a remarkable drop. First
convert to a seasonally adjusted anomaly to remove the seasonal cooling
trend, and the compare with comparable periods over the last, say, 10
years. Is it actually out of the ordinary?

(You might look at the "remarkable rise" at the end of December 2004.)
--
Stewart Robert Hinsley

No where near as sharp and as long and I never mentioned up and that's the
point it in the opposite direction.

On Dec 30, 9:26*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Stewart Robert Hinsley" wrote in ...





In message m, Lawrence
Jenkins writes

"Alan LeHun" wrote in message
...
In article om,
says...
So I take it Alan that you feel the drop in near surface temperature is
not
a fact?

Maybe he feels that the drop in near surface temperature over such a
short period is not significant?

--
Alan LeHun

Alan the point is its a remarkable drop in such a short space of time. To
be
fair I did link it to Joe B's prediction of global cooling over the next
30
years. However regardless that is some drop.

Would you care to demonstrate that it is actually a remarkable drop. First
convert to a seasonally adjusted anomaly to remove the seasonal cooling
trend, and the compare with comparable periods over the last, say, 10
years. Is it actually out of the ordinary?

(You might look at the "remarkable rise" at the end of December 2004.)
--
Stewart Robert Hinsley

No where near as sharp and as long and I never mentioned up and that's the
point it in the opposite direction.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Does anyone have any idea what Lawrence has tried to say here?

In article ,
says...

I was merely commenting on the WMO view on 2010 and not on the other data
which gave an error message when I clicked on the link.


k. Reading too much into that part of thread.....

To get the graph:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ and click on "Draw Graph" near
the bottom right. Uses Java.

--
Alan LeHun