Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement
between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs
showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most
probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm
afraid, on those charts.

The gfs has the potential for full-blown Atlantic weather at 10 days,
depending on how it develops over the next day, or so, but the ECM
doesn't really back that. MetO going for continued cooler than average
conditions, but a little milder in the SW for a while. Reading between
the lines (and you have to), I think the precis below indicates they
don't really have much of a clue as to how this will develop past 8/9
days.

"UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jan 2011 to Friday 14 Jan 2011:

Largely unsettled and rather cloudy from the middle of next week
through into the following weekend, with spells of rain and hill snow
in the south and west at first soon spreading northeast, perhaps
bringing some sleet and snow, as well as an ice risk, to northern,
eastern and central parts at times. Then, by the new week, the south
and east should become drier whilst the north and west remain
unsettled with showers, some of them wintry, and hill snow.
Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the north and east, to
the south and west nearer normal at first but turning colder later.
The colder-than-average theme then persists into the week after next.
Updated: 1200 on Fri 31 Dec 2010"

Sooon be spring!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement
between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs
showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most
probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm
afraid, on those charts.

You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius
and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Jan 1, 2:28*pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement
between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs
showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most
probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm
afraid, on those charts.

You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius
and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Ah, yes! True, but one of our number probably has already............
*))

Meanwhile, cold lovers should not look at the 12z gfs. It'll put you
off your dinner. 12z ECM is hinting at the same kind of possible set-
up. If both are still there after the 12z charts for tomorrow, I'd be
properly interested.

The MetO tea boy is also hinting at milder, Atlantic conditions at 10
days+, too, in his updated precis today, but really, I still don't
think he, or the MetO has much of a clue, as they've changed their
minds quite significantly since yesterday:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011:
The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in
the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers
continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the
weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry
showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east.
Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst
the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry
and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the
north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become
more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to
nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later.
Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011"

The northerly, and the return of the cold, has now been reduced to a 2-
day affair.

On Jan 1, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 1, 2:28*pm, "Col" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement
between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs
showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most
probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm
afraid, on those charts.

You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius
and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Ah, yes! True, but one of our number probably has already............
*))

Meanwhile, cold lovers should not look at the 12z gfs. It'll put you
off your dinner. 12z ECM is hinting at the same kind of possible set-
up. If both are still there after the 12z charts for tomorrow, I'd be
properly interested.

The MetO tea boy is also hinting at milder, Atlantic conditions at 10
days+, too, in his updated precis today, but really, I still don't
think he, or the MetO has much of a clue, as they've changed their
minds quite significantly since yesterday:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011:
The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in
the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers
continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the
weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry
showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east.
Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst
the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry
and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the
north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become
more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to
nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later.
Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011"

The northerly, and the return of the cold, has now been reduced to a 2-
day affair.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

As the 12z gfs looks a little colder, so the 12z ECM tilts in the
direction of milder at 10 days.

MetO teaboy also tilting towards mild, (or maybe bitter!):

Outlook for Friday 7 Jan 2011 to Sunday 16 Jan 2011:
Spells of rain in the south will clear on Friday to leave many areas
fine and dry. Northern and northwestern parts of the UK are expected
to be unsettled and windy at times through the end of this week and
the start of next, with wintry showers and an associated risk of ice.
Most other places should be mainly dry, but cold with overnight frost
and fog or freezing fog patches slow to clear by day. Towards the
middle of the month, there are indications that winds will become more
southwesterly, leading to an increased chance of more unsettled
conditions for most areas. However, after a cold start to the period,
this also means that temperatures are likely to return to near normal,
or a little above in places.
Updated: 1142 on Sun 2 Jan 2011

On Jan 2, 7:34*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 1, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 1, 2:28*pm, "Col" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement
between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs
showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most
probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm
afraid, on those charts.

You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius
and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Ah, yes! True, but one of our number probably has already............
*))

Meanwhile, cold lovers should not look at the 12z gfs. It'll put you
off your dinner. 12z ECM is hinting at the same kind of possible set-
up. If both are still there after the 12z charts for tomorrow, I'd be
properly interested.

The MetO tea boy is also hinting at milder, Atlantic conditions at 10
days+, too, in his updated precis today, but really, I still don't
think he, or the MetO has much of a clue, as they've changed their
minds quite significantly since yesterday:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011:
The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in
the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers
continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the
weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry
showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east.
Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst
the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry
and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the
north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become
more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to
nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later.
Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011"

The northerly, and the return of the cold, has now been reduced to a 2-
day affair.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

As the 12z gfs looks a little colder, so the 12z ECM tilts in the
direction of milder at 10 days.

MetO teaboy also tilting towards mild, (or maybe bitter!):

Outlook for Friday 7 Jan 2011 to Sunday 16 Jan 2011:
Spells of rain in the south will clear on Friday to leave many areas
fine and dry. Northern and northwestern parts of the UK are expected
to be unsettled and windy at times through the end of this week and
the start of next, with wintry showers and an associated risk of ice.
Most other places should be mainly dry, but cold with overnight frost
and fog or freezing fog patches slow to clear by day. Towards the
middle of the month, there are indications that winds will become more
southwesterly, leading to an increased chance of more unsettled
conditions for most areas. However, after a cold start to the period,
this also means that temperatures are likely to return to near normal,
or a little above in places.
Updated: 1142 on Sun 2 Jan 2011- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Still no agreement between the gfs and the ECM and neither has been
consistence over the past 2/3 days in showing the same thing. The
weather will be what wil be at 10 days, but when it happens, whether
it will have been actually forecastable from 10 days out, by anyone.
is moot.

On Jan 3, 7:54*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 2, 7:34*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 1, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 1, 2:28*pm, "Col" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement
between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs
showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most
probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm
afraid, on those charts.

You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius
and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Ah, yes! True, but one of our number probably has already............
*))

Meanwhile, cold lovers should not look at the 12z gfs. It'll put you
off your dinner. 12z ECM is hinting at the same kind of possible set-
up. If both are still there after the 12z charts for tomorrow, I'd be
properly interested.

The MetO tea boy is also hinting at milder, Atlantic conditions at 10
days+, too, in his updated precis today, but really, I still don't
think he, or the MetO has much of a clue, as they've changed their
minds quite significantly since yesterday:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011:
The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in
the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers
continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the
weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry
showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east.
Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst
the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry
and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the
north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become
more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to
nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later.
Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011"

The northerly, and the return of the cold, has now been reduced to a 2-
day affair.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

As the 12z gfs looks a little colder, so the 12z ECM tilts in the
direction of milder at 10 days.

MetO teaboy also tilting towards mild, (or maybe bitter!):

Outlook for Friday 7 Jan 2011 to Sunday 16 Jan 2011:
Spells of rain in the south will clear on Friday to leave many areas
fine and dry. Northern and northwestern parts of the UK are expected
to be unsettled and windy at times through the end of this week and
the start of next, with wintry showers and an associated risk of ice.
Most other places should be mainly dry, but cold with overnight frost
and fog or freezing fog patches slow to clear by day. Towards the
middle of the month, there are indications that winds will become more
southwesterly, leading to an increased chance of more unsettled
conditions for most areas. However, after a cold start to the period,
this also means that temperatures are likely to return to near normal,
or a little above in places.
Updated: 1142 on Sun 2 Jan 2011- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Still no agreement between the gfs and the ECM and neither has been
consistence over the past 2/3 days in showing the same thing. The
weather will be what wil be at 10 days, but when it happens, whether
it will have been actually forecastable from 10 days out, by anyone.
is moot.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Today's 12z gfs going for pretty mild at only 8 days now. See if the
ECM can agree and if the ensembles can give either support.