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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement
between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm afraid, on those charts. The gfs has the potential for full-blown Atlantic weather at 10 days, depending on how it develops over the next day, or so, but the ECM doesn't really back that. MetO going for continued cooler than average conditions, but a little milder in the SW for a while. Reading between the lines (and you have to), I think the precis below indicates they don't really have much of a clue as to how this will develop past 8/9 days. "UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jan 2011 to Friday 14 Jan 2011: Largely unsettled and rather cloudy from the middle of next week through into the following weekend, with spells of rain and hill snow in the south and west at first soon spreading northeast, perhaps bringing some sleet and snow, as well as an ice risk, to northern, eastern and central parts at times. Then, by the new week, the south and east should become drier whilst the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry, and hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the north and east, to the south and west nearer normal at first but turning colder later. The colder-than-average theme then persists into the week after next. Updated: 1200 on Fri 31 Dec 2010" Sooon be spring! |
#2
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![]() "Dawlish" wrote in message ... Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm afraid, on those charts. You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo ![]() -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
#3
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On Jan 1, 2:28*pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm afraid, on those charts. You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo ![]() -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Ah, yes! True, but one of our number probably has already............ *)) Meanwhile, cold lovers should not look at the 12z gfs. It'll put you off your dinner. 12z ECM is hinting at the same kind of possible set- up. If both are still there after the 12z charts for tomorrow, I'd be properly interested. The MetO tea boy is also hinting at milder, Atlantic conditions at 10 days+, too, in his updated precis today, but really, I still don't think he, or the MetO has much of a clue, as they've changed their minds quite significantly since yesterday: "UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011: The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east. Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later. Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011" The northerly, and the return of the cold, has now been reduced to a 2- day affair. |
#4
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On Jan 1, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 1, 2:28*pm, "Col" wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message .... Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm afraid, on those charts. You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo ![]() -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Ah, yes! True, but one of our number probably has already............ *)) Meanwhile, cold lovers should not look at the 12z gfs. It'll put you off your dinner. 12z ECM is hinting at the same kind of possible set- up. If both are still there after the 12z charts for tomorrow, I'd be properly interested. The MetO tea boy is also hinting at milder, Atlantic conditions at 10 days+, too, in his updated precis today, but really, I still don't think he, or the MetO has much of a clue, as they've changed their minds quite significantly since yesterday: "UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011: The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east. Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later. Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011" The northerly, and the return of the cold, has now been reduced to a 2- day affair.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - As the 12z gfs looks a little colder, so the 12z ECM tilts in the direction of milder at 10 days. MetO teaboy also tilting towards mild, (or maybe bitter!): Outlook for Friday 7 Jan 2011 to Sunday 16 Jan 2011: Spells of rain in the south will clear on Friday to leave many areas fine and dry. Northern and northwestern parts of the UK are expected to be unsettled and windy at times through the end of this week and the start of next, with wintry showers and an associated risk of ice. Most other places should be mainly dry, but cold with overnight frost and fog or freezing fog patches slow to clear by day. Towards the middle of the month, there are indications that winds will become more southwesterly, leading to an increased chance of more unsettled conditions for most areas. However, after a cold start to the period, this also means that temperatures are likely to return to near normal, or a little above in places. Updated: 1142 on Sun 2 Jan 2011 |
#5
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On Jan 2, 7:34*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 1, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 1, 2:28*pm, "Col" wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message .... Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm afraid, on those charts. You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo ![]() -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Ah, yes! True, but one of our number probably has already............ *)) Meanwhile, cold lovers should not look at the 12z gfs. It'll put you off your dinner. 12z ECM is hinting at the same kind of possible set- up. If both are still there after the 12z charts for tomorrow, I'd be properly interested. The MetO tea boy is also hinting at milder, Atlantic conditions at 10 days+, too, in his updated precis today, but really, I still don't think he, or the MetO has much of a clue, as they've changed their minds quite significantly since yesterday: "UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011: The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east. Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later. Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011" The northerly, and the return of the cold, has now been reduced to a 2- day affair.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - As the 12z gfs looks a little colder, so the 12z ECM tilts in the direction of milder at 10 days. MetO teaboy also tilting towards mild, (or maybe bitter!): Outlook for Friday 7 Jan 2011 to Sunday 16 Jan 2011: Spells of rain in the south will clear on Friday to leave many areas fine and dry. Northern and northwestern parts of the UK are expected to be unsettled and windy at times through the end of this week and the start of next, with wintry showers and an associated risk of ice. Most other places should be mainly dry, but cold with overnight frost and fog or freezing fog patches slow to clear by day. Towards the middle of the month, there are indications that winds will become more southwesterly, leading to an increased chance of more unsettled conditions for most areas. However, after a cold start to the period, this also means that temperatures are likely to return to near normal, or a little above in places. Updated: 1142 on Sun 2 Jan 2011- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Still no agreement between the gfs and the ECM and neither has been consistence over the past 2/3 days in showing the same thing. The weather will be what wil be at 10 days, but when it happens, whether it will have been actually forecastable from 10 days out, by anyone. is moot. |
#6
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On Jan 3, 7:54*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 2, 7:34*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 1, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 1, 2:28*pm, "Col" wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message ... Little to characterise the weather at 10 days. No real agreement between the models at that distance, but yesterday's couple of runs showing retrogression and cold and heavy snow returning, was most probably just model froth. No blizzards on the horizon for most, I'm afraid, on those charts. You forgot to factor in Mars being in the house of Saggitarius and the Moon being on the cusp of Leo ![]() -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl Ah, yes! True, but one of our number probably has already............ *)) Meanwhile, cold lovers should not look at the 12z gfs. It'll put you off your dinner. 12z ECM is hinting at the same kind of possible set- up. If both are still there after the 12z charts for tomorrow, I'd be properly interested. The MetO tea boy is also hinting at milder, Atlantic conditions at 10 days+, too, in his updated precis today, but really, I still don't think he, or the MetO has much of a clue, as they've changed their minds quite significantly since yesterday: "UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011: The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east. Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later. Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011" The northerly, and the return of the cold, has now been reduced to a 2- day affair.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - As the 12z gfs looks a little colder, so the 12z ECM tilts in the direction of milder at 10 days. MetO teaboy also tilting towards mild, (or maybe bitter!): Outlook for Friday 7 Jan 2011 to Sunday 16 Jan 2011: Spells of rain in the south will clear on Friday to leave many areas fine and dry. Northern and northwestern parts of the UK are expected to be unsettled and windy at times through the end of this week and the start of next, with wintry showers and an associated risk of ice. Most other places should be mainly dry, but cold with overnight frost and fog or freezing fog patches slow to clear by day. Towards the middle of the month, there are indications that winds will become more southwesterly, leading to an increased chance of more unsettled conditions for most areas. However, after a cold start to the period, this also means that temperatures are likely to return to near normal, or a little above in places. Updated: 1142 on Sun 2 Jan 2011- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Still no agreement between the gfs and the ECM and neither has been consistence over the past 2/3 days in showing the same thing. The weather will be what wil be at 10 days, but when it happens, whether it will have been actually forecastable from 10 days out, by anyone. is moot.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Today's 12z gfs going for pretty mild at only 8 days now. See if the ECM can agree and if the ensembles can give either support. |
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