Having read his glowing praises on that website above and refuted it
they asked me for some evidence that he hadn't predicted the harsh
weather. So I sent this, which was published just three weeks before the
bitter weather kicked in at the end of November.
I'll let the people of Scotland and Ireland in particular judge how it's
going:-

“AccuWeather.com Europe Winter Forecast for 2010-2011
By Heather Buchman, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist.

AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i is calling for
the core of winter in Europe this year to target the southern portion of
the continent, while areas from the United Kingdom into Scandinavia that
were hit hard last year catch a break. The major player in this winter's
forecast is the phenomenon called La Niña, when sea surface temperatures
across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. Last
winter was characterized by an El Niño, which is the opposite of La Niña
with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Niño to a
La Niña, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40° north, which includes most of Europe.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Niño to a
La Niña, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40° north, which includes most of Europe.
This winter, *******i is generally going with this idea, though he is
expecting the above-normal warmth to be a bit farther north.
On average, above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas from the
northern U.K. into Scandinavia. Precipitation is generally expected to
be below normal in these areas.

While winter enthusiasts across northern Europe may be disappointed with
this forecast, many people will probably welcome a break after last
year's harsh winter.Farther south, *******i expects near-normal
temperatures from southern England into the northern Europe mainland and
colder-than-normal conditions from Italy and the Alps into the Balkans,
Ukraine and southern Russia.

Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to
average closer to normal in London while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin
experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a
little below normal.”

I realise there's a way to go but to miss the severest December for over
a hundred years in some places is a bit of an oversight ;-)

Dave

On Jan 3, 10:42*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Having read his glowing praises on that website above and refuted it
they asked me for some evidence that he hadn't predicted the harsh
weather. So I sent this, which was published just three weeks before the
bitter weather kicked in at the end of November.
I'll let the people of Scotland and Ireland in particular judge how it's
going:-

AccuWeather.com Europe Winter Forecast for 2010-2011
By Heather Buchman, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist.

AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i is calling for
the core of winter in Europe this year to target the southern portion of
the continent, while areas from the United Kingdom into Scandinavia that
were hit hard last year catch a break. The major player in this winter's
forecast is the phenomenon called La Ni a, when sea surface temperatures
across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. Last
winter was characterized by an El Ni o, which is the opposite of La Ni a
with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Ni o to a
La Ni a, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40 north, which includes most of Europe.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Ni o to a
La Ni a, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40 north, which includes most of Europe.
This winter, *******i is generally going with this idea, though he is
expecting the above-normal warmth to be a bit farther north.
On average, above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas from the
northern U.K. into Scandinavia. Precipitation is generally expected to
be below normal in these areas.

While winter enthusiasts across northern Europe may be disappointed with
this forecast, many people will probably welcome a break after last
year's harsh winter.Farther south, *******i expects near-normal
temperatures from southern England into the northern Europe mainland and
colder-than-normal conditions from Italy and the Alps into the Balkans,
Ukraine and southern Russia.

Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to
average closer to normal in London while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin
experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a
little below normal.

I realise there's a way to go but to miss the severest December for over
a hundred years in some places is a bit of an oversight ;-)

Dave

Your right, he never foretasted that late November plunge nor the
December freeze, well not until it was showing up on the models. Be
interesting to see whether his Alps to the Baltic's freeze is going to
happen over the next 6 weeks or so?

As Lawrence has pointed out Joe is still convincing himself global
cooling has began, every thread of statistics he uses to bolster his
crusade. His next judgment day will be August/September when the
actual Arctic sea ice is measured in comparison to previous years. I
like Joe, but I just don't buy into this one.

Even so, interesting reading.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
To Nov 12th 2010, absolutely no-one
foresaw what was coming in December.

There's an article in today's Telegraph claiming that at the end of
October the Met Office foresaw the cold conditions and informed the
Government but not the public. However given that the Telegraph never
misses an opportunity to knock the Met Office I'm not sure how much
credence we should place in that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...om-public.html
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Tuesday 04 Jan 2011 10:36, John Hall scribbled:

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
To Nov 12th 2010, absolutely no-one
foresaw what was coming in December.

There's an article in today's Telegraph claiming that at the end of
October the Met Office foresaw the cold conditions and informed the
Government but not the public. However given that the Telegraph never
misses an opportunity to knock the Met Office I'm not sure how much
credence we should place in that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...e-kept-winter-
forecast-secret-from-public.html

I also saw that in the Radio Times (5-14 Jan) this morning in an article by
Roger Harrabin. In it, he also says that a steering group has been set up to
assess the skill of forecasters over periods from a day to a season. This
steering group includes the Royal Meteorological Society and Royal
Statistical Society.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
It was raining cats and dogs and I fell in a poodle. [Chic
Murray(1919-1985)]

On Jan 4, 2:14*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Tuesday 04 Jan 2011 10:36, John Hall scribbled:

In article
,
*Dawlish writes:
To Nov 12th 2010, absolutely no-one
foresaw what was coming in December.

There's an article in today's Telegraph claiming that at the end of
October the Met Office foresaw the cold conditions and informed the
Government but not the public. However given that the Telegraph never
misses an opportunity to knock the Met Office I'm not sure how much
credence we should place in that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...ffice-kept-win...

forecast-secret-from-public.html

I also saw that in the Radio Times (5-14 Jan) this morning in an article by
Roger Harrabin. In it, he also says that a steering group has been set up to
assess the skill of forecasters over periods from a day to a season. This
steering group includes the Royal Meteorological Society and Royal
Statistical Society.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell
It was raining cats and dogs and I fell in a poodle. [Chic
Murray(1919-1985)]

I look forward to that with the greatest of interest. It certainly
implies that nothing like it has been happening before and it is
something I've been championing for years.

On Jan 3, 10:59*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Jan 3, 10:42*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:





Having read his glowing praises on that website above and refuted it
they asked me for some evidence that he hadn't predicted the harsh
weather. So I sent this, which was published just three weeks before the
bitter weather kicked in at the end of November.
I'll let the people of Scotland and Ireland in particular judge how it's
going:-

AccuWeather.com Europe Winter Forecast for 2010-2011
By Heather Buchman, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist.

AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i is calling for
the core of winter in Europe this year to target the southern portion of
the continent, while areas from the United Kingdom into Scandinavia that
were hit hard last year catch a break. The major player in this winter's
forecast is the phenomenon called La Ni a, when sea surface temperatures
across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. Last
winter was characterized by an El Ni o, which is the opposite of La Ni a
with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Ni o to a
La Ni a, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40 north, which includes most of Europe.*******i highlights
that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Ni o to a
La Ni a, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of
latitude 40 north, which includes most of Europe.
This winter, *******i is generally going with this idea, though he is
expecting the above-normal warmth to be a bit farther north.
On average, above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas from the
northern U.K. into Scandinavia. Precipitation is generally expected to
be below normal in these areas.

While winter enthusiasts across northern Europe may be disappointed with
this forecast, many people will probably welcome a break after last
year's harsh winter.Farther south, *******i expects near-normal
temperatures from southern England into the northern Europe mainland and
colder-than-normal conditions from Italy and the Alps into the Balkans,
Ukraine and southern Russia.

Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to
average closer to normal in London while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin
experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a
little below normal.

I realise there's a way to go but to miss the severest December for over
a hundred years in some places is a bit of an oversight ;-)

Dave

Your right, he never foretasted that late November plunge nor the
December freeze, well not until it was showing up on the models. Be
interesting to see whether his Alps to the Baltic's freeze is going to
happen over the next 6 weeks or so?

As Lawrence has pointed out Joe is still convincing himself global
cooling has began, every thread of statistics he uses to bolster his
crusade. His next judgment day will be *August/September when the
actual Arctic sea ice is measured in comparison to previous years. I
like Joe, but I just don't buy into this one.

Even so, interesting reading.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Interesting? He's long ceased to interest me. Why do people hang
on his every word even though they may criticise him afterwards? He
shouts the odds every time but is frequently way off the mark. He is
irrepressible but people should realise that part of this supposedly
noble characteristic is the inability to see how bad you are.
The forecast for Winter 2010-11 in Europe, quoted by Dave
Cornwell, was comprehensively and massively wrong. In a rational
world he would be pelted with rotten tomatoes by people shouting
"You're crap, you're rubbish, my gerbil could do better, go away" etc
etc. and that would be the last we heard of him. But it seems that
even in the cerebral business of weather forecasting it's not a
rational world.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
To Nov 12th 2010, absolutely no-one
foresaw what was coming in December.

There's an article in today's Telegraph claiming that at the end of
October the Met Office foresaw the cold conditions and informed the
Government but not the public. However given that the Telegraph never
misses an opportunity to knock the Met Office I'm not sure how much
credence we should place in that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...om-public.html
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

John. The Telegraph in general is very much accepting of AGW

In article om,
Lawrence Jenkins writes:

"John Hall" wrote in message
.. .
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
To Nov 12th 2010, absolutely no-one
foresaw what was coming in December.

There's an article in today's Telegraph claiming that at the end of
October the Met Office foresaw the cold conditions and informed the
Government but not the public. However given that the Telegraph never
misses an opportunity to knock the Met Office I'm not sure how much
credence we should place in that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...t-Office-kept-
winter-forecast-secret-from-public.html

John. The Telegraph in general is very much accepting of AGW


I don't think that's true, though their environmental correspondent
Geoffrey Lean is a believer (though much more reasonable and balanced
than many in the environmental lobby are). And the Sunday Telegraph
publishes Christopher Booker, who is fiercely anti and takes very much
the same line as you do.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

On Jan 8, 11:26*am, John Hall wrote:
In article om,
*Lawrence Jenkins writes:





"John Hall" wrote in message
.. .
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
To Nov 12th 2010, absolutely no-one
foresaw what was coming in December.

There's an article in today's Telegraph claiming that at the end of
October the Met Office foresaw the cold conditions and informed the
Government but not the public. However given that the Telegraph never
misses an opportunity to knock the Met Office I'm not sure how much
credence we should place in that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...t-Office-kept-
winter-forecast-secret-from-public.html

John. The Telegraph in general is very much accepting of AGW

I don't think that's true, though their environmental correspondent
Geoffrey Lean is a believer (though much more reasonable and balanced
than many in the environmental lobby are). And the Sunday Telegraph
publishes Christopher Booker, who is fiercely anti and takes very much
the same line as you do.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * *"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
* * * * * * * * will hardly mind anything else."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

And Lawrence has championed Booker before. I know Lawrence is also
ducking this one, but I'd like to get his views on JB's winter
forecast, so far. *))