I see from todays papers that the Met Office had secretly forecast the
severe weather for December,I wonder if they are also predicting the
upcoming great warmup ?.
Or should I check with the great south London Pier first ?

RonB

"ronaldbutton" wrote:

I see from todays papers that the Met Office had secretly forecast the
severe weather for December...

Don't believe everything (/anything?) you read in the papers... :-)

Here's what the Met Office says:

"The first time a cold spell was mentioned on our website was in our 30-day
forecast issued at the end of October - it provided early indications of the
onset of a cold spell from late November."

So it evidently wasn't a secret.

On Jan 4, 11:58*am, "Togless" wrote:
"ronaldbutton" wrote:
I see from todays papers that the Met Office had secretly forecast the
severe weather for December...

Don't believe everything (/anything?) you read in the papers... *:-)

Here's what the Met Office says:

"The first time a cold spell was mentioned on our website was in our 30-day
forecast issued at the end of October - it provided early indications of the
onset of a cold spell from late November."

So it evidently wasn't a secret.

Blimy. If the MetO takes credit for everything that is mentioned in
that 16-30 day tea-break precis, almost every weather event will be
covered and they would be the doyens of LRF! I doubt you'll find them
admitting to, or even keeping a record of, every event that is
mentioned in it and doesn't happen. Indeed they don't appear to keep
any records at all.

I have thought of doing a continuing analysis of the 6-15-day forecast
and the 16-30 day forecast, but the thought didn't last long as
there's next to nothing to be gained. The far end of the 6-15 day
forecast is unlikely to happen and the 16-30 day forecast is
completely ignorable, as you have no idea as to whether the content
therein is going to be in any way correct. It might have been *in* the
tea boy's ramblings at the end of October, but what indication was
there (is there ever?) that the MetO thought that this particular
piece of 30-day wisdom was going to be correct, at the time it was
written?

"ronaldbutton" wrote in message
...
I see from todays papers that the Met Office had secretly forecast the
severe weather for December,I wonder if they are also predicting the
upcoming great warmup ?.
Or should I check with the great south London Pier first ?

RonB


The good ship HMS Snowmaggedon is leavinf from Pier Nine or was it Peer
Skint-I don't think he erans a lot out of it you know.

On 2011-01-04, ronaldbutton wrote:
I see from todays papers that the Met Office had secretly forecast the
severe weather for December,I wonder if they are also predicting the
upcoming great warmup ?.
Or should I check with the great south London Pier first ?

Would those be the same papers which are the reason the Met Office won't
release its longer term forecasts? Are they crying for more blood yet,
because the Met Office "knew" but didn't tell us?

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Pontrhydygroes, Ceredigion, Cymru aber.
12mi/20km ESE Aberystwyth, 860ft/260m asl ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk

"Adrian" wrote in message
...
On 2011-01-04, ronaldbutton wrote:
I see from todays papers that the Met Office had secretly forecast the
severe weather for December,I wonder if they are also predicting the
upcoming great warmup ?.
Or should I check with the great south London Pier first ?

Would those be the same papers which are the reason the Met Office won't
release its longer term forecasts? Are they crying for more blood yet,
because the Met Office "knew" but didn't tell us?

This was the response to these articles :-

"Following an article in the Radio times on Roger Harrabin, Environment
Analyst with BBC News, the Daily Mail have followed up with stories
highlighting how the Met Office provided forecasts for this winter to the
Cabinet Office, that indicated the risk of a cold start to the season.

We provided a long-range forecast to the Cabinet Office at the end of
October highlighting the risk of a cold start to the winter. This forecast
is used by government officials across the UK to support long-term planning.
We offer a 30 day forecast on our website which accurately highlighted the
cold weather in late November and through December.

We do not issue long-range forecasts to the public, as following research
they have told us that they are of little use to them and they would prefer
forecasts for shorter timescales. Therefore we offer forecasts for 6 to 15
days and 16 to 30 days ahead on our website.

The Daily Telegraph also followed up on the story in today's paper, but has
mistakenly reported that the BBC has decided to publish independent
assessments of the Met Office's performance on its website. In fact, Roger
Harrabin has begun a project within BBC News to evaluate the accuracy of
weather forecasters across the UK, looking at forecasts from 1 day ahead to
3 months ahead. The Met Office welcomes this initiative and is actively
engaged in the project."

Jon.

Jon O'Rourke wrote:
"Adrian" wrote in message
...
On 2011-01-04, ronaldbutton wrote:
I see from todays papers that the Met Office had secretly forecast the
severe weather for December,I wonder if they are also predicting the
upcoming great warmup ?.
Or should I check with the great south London Pier first ?

Would those be the same papers which are the reason the Met Office won't
release its longer term forecasts? Are they crying for more blood yet,
because the Met Office "knew" but didn't tell us?

This was the response to these articles :-

"Following an article in the Radio times on Roger Harrabin, Environment
Analyst with BBC News, the Daily Mail have followed up with stories
highlighting how the Met Office provided forecasts for this winter to the
Cabinet Office, that indicated the risk of a cold start to the season.

We provided a long-range forecast to the Cabinet Office at the end of
October highlighting the risk of a cold start to the winter. This forecast
is used by government officials across the UK to support long-term
planning.
We offer a 30 day forecast on our website which accurately highlighted the
cold weather in late November and through December.

We do not issue long-range forecasts to the public, as following research
they have told us that they are of little use to them and they would prefer
forecasts for shorter timescales. Therefore we offer forecasts for 6 to 15
days and 16 to 30 days ahead on our website.

The Daily Telegraph also followed up on the story in today's paper, but has
mistakenly reported that the BBC has decided to publish independent
assessments of the Met Office's performance on its website. In fact, Roger
Harrabin has begun a project within BBC News to evaluate the accuracy of
weather forecasters across the UK, looking at forecasts from 1 day ahead to
3 months ahead. The Met Office welcomes this initiative and is actively
engaged in the project."

Jon.

------------------
Without sounding like starting a new fan club, as there are a few on
here already, I'm always pleased to see your posts, Jon. They are a kind
of pacifying voice of reason ;-)
Dave

On 2011-01-04, Jon O'Rourke quoted a Met
Office source as saying:
We do not issue long-range forecasts to the public, as following research
they have told us that they are of little use to them and they would prefer
forecasts for shorter timescales.

Would this research have been carried out immediately following the gutter
press' lambasting of the met office over the "barbecue summer" débacle,
by any chance? Oh people are so fickle.

The sooner the internet finishes off the tabloid press the better!

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Pontrhydygroes, Ceredigion, Cymru aber.
12mi/20km ESE Aberystwyth, 860ft/260m asl ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk

On Jan 4, 10:21*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Adrian" wrote in message

...

On 2011-01-04, ronaldbutton wrote:
I see from todays papers that the Met Office had secretly forecast the
severe weather for December,I wonder if they are also predicting the
upcoming great warmup ?.
Or should I check with the great south London Pier first ?

Would those be the same papers which are the reason the Met Office won't
release its longer term forecasts? Are they crying for more blood yet,
because the Met Office "knew" but didn't tell us?

This was the response to these articles :-

"Following an article in the Radio times on Roger Harrabin, Environment
Analyst with BBC News, the *Daily Mail have followed up with stories
highlighting how the Met Office provided forecasts for this winter to the
Cabinet Office, that indicated the risk of a cold start to the season.

We provided a long-range forecast to the Cabinet Office at the end of
October highlighting the risk of a cold start to the winter. This forecast
is used by government officials across the UK to support long-term planning.
We offer a 30 day forecast on our website which accurately highlighted the
cold weather in late November and through December.

We do not issue long-range forecasts to the public, as following research
they have told us that they are of little use to them and they would prefer
forecasts for shorter timescales. *Therefore we offer forecasts for 6 to 15
days and 16 to 30 days ahead on our website.

The Daily Telegraph also followed up on the story in today's paper, but has
mistakenly reported that the BBC has decided to publish independent
assessments of the Met Office's performance on its website. *In fact, Roger
Harrabin has begun a project within BBC News to evaluate the accuracy of
weather forecasters across the UK, looking at forecasts from 1 day ahead to
3 months ahead. *The Met Office welcomes this initiative and is actively
engaged in the project."

Jon.

I'd love to see that research which apparently showed that the public
found little use for them and that they find a great deal of use for a
16-30 day forecast instead. The substitution is, quite frankly,
bizzare. Nothing in the research that persuaded the MetO that the
public thought that the seasonal forecasts were proving to be
obviously hopeless and wrong far too often then? The hubris is head-
shakingly stunning. "It wasn't our fault for getting them wrong, we
were responding to public demand".

Who exactly are you asking?

On 2011-01-05, Dawlish wrote:
I'd love to see that research which apparently showed that the public
found little use for them and that they find a great deal of use for a
16-30 day forecast instead.

Like I was imlpying, it was almost certainly carried out at the time the
gutter press were telling everyone how useless these forecasts were. And
of course, everyone knows the gutter press is always right, don't they?

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Pontrhydygroes, Ceredigion, Cymru aber.
12mi/20km ESE Aberystwyth, 860ft/260m asl ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk