To get back to Stratospheric warming: today [16th Jan 2011] I notice a continued increase in warming at the highest 10hPa level yet at the lowers of 30 and 50hPa a cooling. Should any significance be read into this?

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...0n_10_2010.pdf
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...0n_50_2010.pdf

Also when we talk about the significance of Stratospheric warming should we be paying more attention to the temperature values, or the rate of increase of temperature, or indeed both?

On Jan 16, 8:58*am, Alan wrote:
To get back to Stratospheric warming: today [16th Jan 2011] I notice a continued increase in warming at the highest 10hPa level yet at the lowers of 30 and 50hPa a cooling. Should any significance be read into this?

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/t60_90...

Also when we talk about the significance of Stratospheric warming should we be paying more attention to the temperature values, or the rate of increase of temperature, or indeed both?

Possibly. That is the first time that the 10hpa warming has escaped
from the 30-70% range. Could be the start of an event instead of
normal variation? However, the Univ of Berlin forecast data implies
that this particular rise may have peaked already.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php

What the NASA data does show, and what I've been banging on about,
probably ad nauseam, is that Will's proposed SSW event, starting on
the 11th, didn't develop. It's a case of wait and see here. Berlin
forecasts point to this not developing either.

All the caveats I've referred to previously about the effect of any
SSW event on the surface, apply.

In answer to your last question, temperatures are important, but it's
the effect of those temperatures on stratospheric wind flows that I
understand to be the main effect. Again, the Univ of Berlin data shows
a slight change, then a re-esetablishment of the normal wind flow in
the last 2 days.

"Alan" wrote in message
...
To get back to Stratospheric warming: today [16th Jan 2011] I notice a
continued increase in warming at the highest 10hPa level yet at the lowers
of 30 and 50hPa a cooling. Should any significance be read into this?

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...0n_10_2010.pdf
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...0n_50_2010.pdf

Also when we talk about the significance of Stratospheric warming should
we be paying more attention to the temperature values, or the rate of
increase of temperature, or indeed both?


Hi Alan, it's a bit of both. Ultimately it is the amount of strong warming
that happens that drastically alters the circualtion.

I see on this thread that there are still mis-understanding sregarding my
forecasting technique despite me explaining it. Yes I did focus on
"stratwarm" for this event, yes it hasn't warmed as much as expected but it
did enough to slow the NH circulation down as expected. But .... as
explained to gavino in another thread, my technique is a holistic one (has
been for quite a while now), the same "holistic" which Dawlish made a joke
about in the astrology thread saying that he now understood it, so it is
known about! Meteorology is not that straightforward as to be able to pin a
forecast on one factor, I never did that, how do you think I cottoned on to
the 18th as the changeover? Pigs entrails? :-) No, that was NWP ensembles
along with John Hall who has put across a lot of valid points IMO. Heck I've
explained all this already if people doubt my integrity then that's up to
them. If it goes wrong, it goes wrong, but it won't be because of the lack
of stratwarm it will be a combination of factors. The 18th looks good - COME
ON!

Will
--

On Jan 16, 10:11*am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Alan" wrote in message

...

To get back to Stratospheric warming: today [16th Jan 2011] I notice a
continued increase in warming at the highest 10hPa level yet at the lowers
of 30 and 50hPa a cooling. Should any significance be read into this?

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/t60_90...
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/t60_90...

Also when we talk about the significance of Stratospheric warming should
we be paying more attention to the temperature values, or the rate of
increase of temperature, or indeed both?

Hi Alan, it's a bit of both. Ultimately it is the amount of strong warming
that happens that drastically alters the circualtion.

I see on this thread that there are still mis-understanding sregarding my
forecasting technique despite me explaining it. Yes I did focus on
"stratwarm" for this event, yes it hasn't warmed as much as expected but it
did enough to slow the NH circulation down as expected. But .... as
explained to gavino in another thread, my technique is a holistic one (has
been for quite a while now), the same "holistic" which Dawlish made a joke
about in the astrology thread saying that he now understood it, so it is
known about! Meteorology is not that straightforward as to be able to pin a
forecast on one factor, I never did that, how do you think I cottoned on to
the 18th as the changeover? Pigs entrails? :-) No, that was NWP ensembles
along with John Hall who has put across a lot of valid points IMO. Heck I've
explained all this already if people doubt my integrity then that's up to
them. If it goes wrong, it goes wrong, but it won't be because of the lack
of stratwarm it will be a combination of factors. The 18th looks good - COME
ON!

Will
--

Thanks Will! My understanding is interactions in atmosphere can be
described by a set of fundamental equations thermodynamic,
conservation of mass etc. Stratospheric warming is a manifestation of
these equations at a particular set of positions in space/time. You
can’t consider them in isolation; you need to have the complete
picture. This is where I imagine the computer models are invaluable.
They can consider the complete picture, taking each variable [however
insignificant they may be perceived] and move the whole thing forward
in time. Unfortunately the models don’t model the fundamental
equations entirely accurate; this is where I imagine research into
such phenomena can be used to improve the models.

All great stuff, shame much of it is beyond me now!

On Jan 16, 10:11*am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Alan" wrote in message

...

To get back to Stratospheric warming: today [16th Jan 2011] I notice a
continued increase in warming at the highest 10hPa level yet at the lowers
of 30 and 50hPa a cooling. Should any significance be read into this?

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/t60_90...
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/t60_90...

Also when we talk about the significance of Stratospheric warming should
we be paying more attention to the temperature values, or the rate of
increase of temperature, or indeed both?

Hi Alan, it's a bit of both. Ultimately it is the amount of strong warming
that happens that drastically alters the circualtion.

I see on this thread that there are still mis-understanding sregarding my
forecasting technique despite me explaining it. Yes I did focus on
"stratwarm" for this event, yes it hasn't warmed as much as expected but it
did enough to slow the NH circulation down as expected. But .... as
explained to gavino in another thread, my technique is a holistic one (has
been for quite a while now), the same "holistic" which Dawlish made a joke
about in the astrology thread saying that he now understood it, so it is
known about! Meteorology is not that straightforward as to be able to pin a
forecast on one factor, I never did that, how do you think I cottoned on to
the 18th as the changeover? Pigs entrails? :-) No, that was NWP ensembles
along with John Hall who has put across a lot of valid points IMO. Heck I've
explained all this already if people doubt my integrity then that's up to
them. If it goes wrong, it goes wrong, but it won't be because of the lack
of stratwarm it will be a combination of factors. The 18th looks good - COME
ON!

Will
--

It was a joke, as well. Hence the smiley. *))

Someone on hear is really starting to make themselves look very silly
& childish, and with all due respect to our female contributors, needs
to grow up and grow a set of balls....or just learn to chill out a
bit.

At the end of the day, it's only weather, there are far more important
things in life to get your knickers in a twist about!

Someone on here is really starting to make themselves look & sound
very silly
& childish, and with all due respect to our female contributors, needs
to grow up and grow a set of balls....or just learn to chill out a
bit.

At the end of the day, it's only weather, there are far more important
things in life to get your knickers in a twist about!

On Jan 16, 11:59*am, Teignmouth wrote:
Someone on here is really starting to make themselves look & sound
very silly
& childish, and with all due respect to our female contributors, needs
to grow up and grow a set of balls....or just learn to chill out a
bit.

At the end of the day, it's only weather, there are far more important
things in life to get your knickers in a twist about!

Read the research, look at the probabilities, understand those
probabilities in the context of causal commections and concentrate on
the science. Your personal prejudices, likes and dislikes, are noted,
but it won't change the science. What do you think about the SSW event
that didn't happen - and the forecast made from it?

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

I never did that, how do you think I cottoned on to the 18th as the
changeover? Pigs entrails? :-)

One of the forecasters (long since retired) I worked with back in Bracknell
in the 1990s had a theory that linked similar changes of type to phases of
the moon...........oh hang on, surely not....... :-)

Jon.