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Old January 26th 11, 05:57 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default ENSO update and the importance of context when comparing globalannual temperatures between years

Update from the Aussie BOM last week:

"One of the strongest La Niña events on record continues to influence
the climate of the Pacific Basin.

Climate indicators of ENSO, including tropical cloud amount, the
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and Pacific sea surface
and sub-surface temperatures, all remain well in excess of La Niña
thresholds. Most have exceeded these thresholds since the middle of
2010. The average August to December SOI (+21.1) has only been
exceeded by the La Niña of 1917-18 (+24.4), with the 1975-76 La Niña
value (+18.8) ranked third. Several other indices also suggest the La
Niña events of 2010-11, 1975-76, 1917-18, 1955-56 and possibly
1988-89, rank closely in terms of the strongest events on record"

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

and from NOAA on Monday

•La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific.
•Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the
Pacific Ocean.
•La Niña is expected to last well into the Northern Hemisphere spring
2011.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

2010 was either the warmest, or the second warmest, year on record in
all 5 temperature series, surface and satellite, but 2005 and
especially 1998 had El Ninos. There are still comparisons between 1998
and 2010 floating around the internet and people questioning whether
there can have been any warming, as the temperatures in each are
comparable. It's simply disinformation. After a record El Nino
produced extreme record global temperatures 12 years ago, now a year
with a near-record La Nina has matched it only 12 years later.

The next year in which an El Nino develops is likely to see all
previous temperature records shattered, unless either global cooling
has set in (highly unlikely), or unless another external factor, like
a large volcanic eruption interrupts GW.
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