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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of
eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop. What does anyone else think. Robin |
#2
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In article
, Exeter Weather Centre writes: The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop. What does anyone else think. As a non-expert model-watcher, that sounds about right to me. It also seems to be in good agreement with the Met Office's "official" view, judging by today's 6-15 day and 16-30 day forecasts (which I think do an excellent job of conveying the degree of uncertainty). I've just been watching the 12Z ECMWF operational run rolling out. At about 6 days out, I thought it looked as if it was going to finish up significantly colder than the 00Z, but by 10 days out it wasn't that different. -- John Hall "The covers of this book are too far apart." Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914) |
#3
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i like the 10/15% chance
On 08/02/2011 7:11 PM, Exeter Weather Centre wrote: The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop. What does anyone else think. Robin |
#4
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There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly
air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop. What does anyone else think. I think that means no chance ![]() February 2011 mean temperature after 8 days, an historically warm 7.2c (0.7c higher than the record breaking 1998) It's also 0.1c above the 1971-2000 April mean of 7.1c! Can it last ![]() Graham |
#5
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On Feb 8, 7:11*pm, Exeter Weather Centre wrote:
The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop. What does anyone else think. Robin Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold" easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against. I don't think we are out of the woods at all with this one, yet. I've always said that the cold will most probably stay to our east, over Russia and eastern Europe, but I haven't had the confidence to say it definitely won't come our way, as the models have shown neither consistency, nor agreement on any definite outcome. It's the same tonight. I honestly wish the MetO would have the guts to say that. What I will say, with close to 100% confidence, is that "bitter cold" and esterlies will not be afflicting the UK this weekend and I expect my forecast of Atlantic weather for tomorrow, from 9 days ago, to be correct! *)) |
#6
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In article
, Dawlish writes: Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold" easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against. snip The pedant in me can't resist pointing out that 33% would be 2-1 against (66% chance that it doesn't happen compared with 33% that it does). -- John Hall "The covers of this book are too far apart." Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914) |
#7
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i can see whos bitter here. and its not the easterly.
and liar too, read the met mrf today, its says low risk and comments on probable outcomes. at least teaboy is working, has a met education and isnt standing out in his garden in t-shirt on weekday afternoon in february and posts about it on usw. On 08/02/2011 7:56 PM, Dawlish wrote: Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold" easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against. I don't think we are out of the woods at all with this one, yet. I've always said that the cold will most probably stay to our east, over Russia and eastern Europe, but I haven't had the confidence to say it definitely won't come our way, as the models have shown neither consistency, nor agreement on any definite outcome. It's the same tonight. I honestly wish the MetO would have the guts to say that. What I will say, with close to 100% confidence, is that "bitter cold" and esterlies will not be afflicting the UK this weekend and I expect my forecast of Atlantic weather for tomorrow, from 9 days ago, to be correct! *)) |
#8
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I have to work too Terry. Alright for some on here!
Cold air could actually sneak in from the west, though not as cold as an easterly, could give snow for me on high ground. In fact my walk on Sunday could end up quite snowy above 450m asl. with -3C 850 hPas predicted. Models struggle with trough disruptions and the slightest let up in the Atlantic and that very cold air from the east will be in, no problem. Will -- ".Western Sky" wrote in message ... i can see whos bitter here. and its not the easterly. and liar too, read the met mrf today, its says low risk and comments on probable outcomes. at least teaboy is working, has a met education and isnt standing out in his garden in t-shirt on weekday afternoon in february and posts about it on usw. On 08/02/2011 7:56 PM, Dawlish wrote: Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold" easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against. I don't think we are out of the woods at all with this one, yet. I've always said that the cold will most probably stay to our east, over Russia and eastern Europe, but I haven't had the confidence to say it definitely won't come our way, as the models have shown neither consistency, nor agreement on any definite outcome. It's the same tonight. I honestly wish the MetO would have the guts to say that. What I will say, with close to 100% confidence, is that "bitter cold" and esterlies will not be afflicting the UK this weekend and I expect my forecast of Atlantic weather for tomorrow, from 9 days ago, to be correct! *)) |
#9
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"John Hall" schreef:
: The pedant in me can't resist pointing out that 33% would be 2-1 against : (66% chance that it doesn't happen compared with 33% that it does). But scientists must value accuracy in figures as linguists must value accuracy with words :-) Colin Youngs Brussels |
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