The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of
eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of
weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is
preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air
out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the
mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for
the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a
bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow
over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground
as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly
air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop.
What does anyone else think.

Robin

In article
,
Exeter Weather Centre writes:
The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of
eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of
weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is
preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air
out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the
mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for
the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a
bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow
over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground
as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly
air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop.
What does anyone else think.

As a non-expert model-watcher, that sounds about right to me. It also
seems to be in good agreement with the Met Office's "official" view,
judging by today's 6-15 day and 16-30 day forecasts (which I think do an
excellent job of conveying the degree of uncertainty).

I've just been watching the 12Z ECMWF operational run rolling out. At
about 6 days out, I thought it looked as if it was going to finish up
significantly colder than the 00Z, but by 10 days out it wasn't that
different.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

i like the 10/15% chance

On 08/02/2011 7:11 PM, Exeter Weather Centre wrote:
The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of
eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of
weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is
preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air
out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the
mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for
the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a
bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow
over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground
as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly
air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop.
What does anyone else think.

Robin

There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly
air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop.
What does anyone else think.

I think that means no chance

February 2011 mean temperature after 8 days, an historically warm 7.2c
(0.7c higher than the record breaking 1998)
It's also 0.1c above the 1971-2000 April mean of 7.1c!
Can it last


Graham

On Feb 8, 7:11*pm, Exeter Weather Centre wrote:
The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of
eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of
weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is
preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air
out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the
mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for
the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a
bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow
over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground
as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly
air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop.
What does anyone else think.

Robin

Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold"
easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against. I don't
think we are out of the woods at all with this one, yet. I've always
said that the cold will most probably stay to our east, over Russia
and eastern Europe, but I haven't had the confidence to say it
definitely won't come our way, as the models have shown neither
consistency, nor agreement on any definite outcome. It's the same
tonight. I honestly wish the MetO would have the guts to say that.

What I will say, with close to 100% confidence, is that "bitter cold"
and esterlies will not be afflicting the UK this weekend and I expect
my forecast of Atlantic weather for tomorrow, from 9 days ago, to be
correct! *))

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold"
easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against.
snip

The pedant in me can't resist pointing out that 33% would be 2-1 against
(66% chance that it doesn't happen compared with 33% that it does).
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

i can see whos bitter here. and its not the easterly.

and liar too, read the met mrf today, its says low risk and comments on
probable outcomes.

at least teaboy is working, has a met education and isnt standing out in
his garden in t-shirt on weekday afternoon in february and posts about
it on usw.



On 08/02/2011 7:56 PM, Dawlish wrote:

Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold"
easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against. I don't
think we are out of the woods at all with this one, yet. I've always
said that the cold will most probably stay to our east, over Russia
and eastern Europe, but I haven't had the confidence to say it
definitely won't come our way, as the models have shown neither
consistency, nor agreement on any definite outcome. It's the same
tonight. I honestly wish the MetO would have the guts to say that.

What I will say, with close to 100% confidence, is that "bitter cold"
and esterlies will not be afflicting the UK this weekend and I expect
my forecast of Atlantic weather for tomorrow, from 9 days ago, to be
correct! *))

I have to work too Terry. Alright for some on here!

Cold air could actually sneak in from the west, though not as cold as an
easterly, could give snow for me on high ground. In fact my walk on Sunday
could end up quite snowy above 450m asl. with -3C 850 hPas predicted.

Models struggle with trough disruptions and the slightest let up in the
Atlantic and that very cold air from the east will be in, no problem.

Will
--


".Western Sky" wrote in message
...
i can see whos bitter here. and its not the easterly.

and liar too, read the met mrf today, its says low risk and comments on
probable outcomes.

at least teaboy is working, has a met education and isnt standing out in
his garden in t-shirt on weekday afternoon in february and posts about it
on usw.



On 08/02/2011 7:56 PM, Dawlish wrote:

Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold"
easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against. I don't
think we are out of the woods at all with this one, yet. I've always
said that the cold will most probably stay to our east, over Russia
and eastern Europe, but I haven't had the confidence to say it
definitely won't come our way, as the models have shown neither
consistency, nor agreement on any definite outcome. It's the same
tonight. I honestly wish the MetO would have the guts to say that.

What I will say, with close to 100% confidence, is that "bitter cold"
and esterlies will not be afflicting the UK this weekend and I expect
my forecast of Atlantic weather for tomorrow, from 9 days ago, to be
correct! *))

"John Hall" schreef:
: The pedant in me can't resist pointing out that 33% would be 2-1 against
: (66% chance that it doesn't happen compared with 33% that it does).

But scientists must value accuracy in figures as linguists must value
accuracy with words :-)

Colin Youngs
Brussels