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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an
easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild. However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will never really make it, to take hold. Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week, however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK, but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning! |
#2
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In article
, Dawlish writes: For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild. However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will never really make it, to take hold. Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week, however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK, but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning! The 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs are both massive mild outliers. I suppose, however, that might not be coincidence, and their finer grid might have enabled them to pick up something that most other ensemble members have missed. The GFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is still on the mild side, but with a substantial number of very cold members - certainly the most I can remember seeing from this model for quite some time. The ECMWF mean is cold - at least for Holland - without being severely so, which of course means that a lot of members are colder than that. http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverw...asp?r=zuidwest In spite of the operational runs, my feeling is that the chance of cold conditions has increased slightly with the 00Z runs, whilst still being odds against. -- John Hall "The covers of this book are too far apart." Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914) |
#3
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John Hall wrote:
In article , Dawlish writes: For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild. However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will never really make it, to take hold. Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week, however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK, but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning! The 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs are both massive mild outliers. I suppose, however, that might not be coincidence, and their finer grid might have enabled them to pick up something that most other ensemble members have missed. The GFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is still on the mild side, but with a substantial number of very cold members - certainly the most I can remember seeing from this model for quite some time. The ECMWF mean is cold - at least for Holland - without being severely so, which of course means that a lot of members are colder than that. http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverw...asp?r=zuidwest In spite of the operational runs, my feeling is that the chance of cold conditions has increased slightly with the 00Z runs, whilst still being odds against. ---------------------- Are we reaching the stage now that after the memorable cold spell of December any cold spell we do get will just be a run of the mill thing that crops up from time to time in every winter so probably not worth getting excited about. December seems to have shifted the goalposts somewhat! Dave Dave |
#4
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![]() "Dave Cornwell" wrote in message ... Are we reaching the stage now that after the memorable cold spell of December any cold spell we do get will just be a run of the mill thing that crops up from time to time in every winter so probably not worth getting excited about. December seems to have shifted the goalposts somewhat! I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240 that never seems to happen ![]() -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
#5
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![]() I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240 that never seems to happen ![]() -- Same here, it's been going on for weeks. Why are they so obsessed, December has gone, that was winter 2011? They keep saying zonality is dead, but this is by far the warmest February on record (1960-2011), as it stands after 13 days and I can't see that changing much with more very mild weather to come, after a few average days this week. If my current mean for February remains close to what it is now, Winter 2011 won't be far from average, who would a thought that a few weeks ago? Move on guys, the very cold air may return next Winter but for now it's a distant memory. Graham |
#6
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december very cold
janurary cold feb mild hardly MILD overall. and zonenality weak and appeared only for a few days in jan and for a few days last week. On 13/02/2011 3:31 PM, Graham wrote: I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240 that never seems to happen ![]() |
#7
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In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes: Are we reaching the stage now that after the memorable cold spell of December any cold spell we do get will just be a run of the mill thing that crops up from time to time in every winter so probably not worth getting excited about. Not necessarily, though of course memorable spells are always going to be rare. December seems to have shifted the goalposts somewhat! True. It's hard to remember now that only three or so years ago some cold lovers were despairing that we might never get really severe winter weather again, at least in the south. -- John Hall "The covers of this book are too far apart." Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914) |
#8
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![]() december very cold janurary cold feb mild hardly MILD overall. and zonenality weak and appeared only for a few days in jan and for a few days last week. On 13/02/2011 3:31 PM, Graham wrote: I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240 that never seems to happen ![]() Actually the above comment was sent by COL. I didn't say the winter would be mild overall, I said closer to average which it will be if this is a record breaking mild February, which at the moment is on the cards! Graham |
#9
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On Feb 13, 10:12*am, John Hall wrote:
In article , *Dawlish writes: For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild. However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will never really make it, to take hold. Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week, however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK, but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning! The 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs are both massive mild outliers. I suppose, however, that might not be coincidence, and their finer grid might have enabled them to pick up something that most other ensemble members have missed. The GFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is still on the mild side, but with a substantial number of very cold members - certainly the most I can remember seeing from this model for quite some time. The ECMWF mean is cold - at least for Holland - without being severely so, which of course means that a lot of members are colder than that. http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_Lon...asp?r=zuidwest In spite of the operational runs, my feeling is that the chance of cold conditions has increased slightly with the 00Z runs, whilst still being odds against. -- John Hall * * * * * * * * * * "The covers of this book are too far apart." * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914) The threat of cold is like Heaney's father in "The Follower". It will not go away......... gfs 12z just keeps the coldies hanging on! |
#10
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On Feb 13, 3:02*pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message ... Are we reaching the stage now that after the memorable cold spell of December any cold spell we do get will just be a run of the mill thing that crops up from time to time in every winter so probably not worth getting excited about. December seems to have shifted the goalposts somewhat! I'm hoping for the end of the lingering threat of the cold obsessives going on and on about cold ensembles & bitter winds after T+240 that never seems to happen ![]() -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl lol. *)) |
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