From midweek onwards, an increasingly cold undercut from the frozen
Continental reservoir across eastern Europe, will lead to 'bitter'
conditions being drawn towards us. Beware the misleadingly benign
850mb temperatures. Despite advertised temperatures I have seen, I
would anticipate values nearer 1-4C across central and eastern UK by
Friday. As the next set of fronts from the west engage this undercut,
snow threat is significant as we end the week.

Any 'breakdown' from the west thereafter is fraught with uncertainty,
and will inevitably lead to the risk of further snow, before milder
air erodes the block, if indeed it does.

"freddie" wrote in message
...
From midweek onwards, an increasingly cold undercut from the frozen
Continental reservoir across eastern Europe, will lead to 'bitter'
conditions being drawn towards us. Beware the misleadingly benign
850mb temperatures. Despite advertised temperatures I have seen, I
would anticipate values nearer 1-4C across central and eastern UK by
Friday. As the next set of fronts from the west engage this undercut,
snow threat is significant as we end the week.

From the Country Tracks forecast there was a definate flow of
continental air across eastern parts and I was surprised to see
the temperatures for Friday as being quoted as around average
for the time of year.
I'd have thought there would be at least something of a chill in the air
with a pressure chart like that.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

"freddie" wrote in message
...
From midweek onwards, an increasingly cold undercut from the frozen
Continental reservoir across eastern Europe, will lead to 'bitter'
conditions being drawn towards us. Beware the misleadingly benign
850mb temperatures. Despite advertised temperatures I have seen, I
would anticipate values nearer 1-4C across central and eastern UK by
Friday. As the next set of fronts from the west engage this undercut,
snow threat is significant as we end the week.

Any 'breakdown' from the west thereafter is fraught with uncertainty,
and will inevitably lead to the risk of further snow, before milder
air erodes the block, if indeed it does.

I'd go along with that, John and next Saturday in particular continues to
looks threatening in terms of the potential for significant snowfall for
Scotland and parts of northern England as the Atlantic occlusion/cold front
(12Z T+120 http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack4.gif ) engages the sub +2
theta-w air mass and low-level SE'ly.

Jon.

On Feb 13, 12:17*pm, freddie wrote:
From midweek onwards, an increasingly cold undercut from the frozen
Continental reservoir across eastern Europe, *will lead to 'bitter'
conditions being drawn towards us. Beware the misleadingly benign
850mb temperatures. Despite advertised temperatures I have seen, I
would anticipate values nearer 1-4C across central and eastern UK by
Friday. As the next set of fronts from the west engage this undercut,
snow threat is significant as we end the week.

Any 'breakdown' from the west thereafter is fraught with uncertainty,
and will inevitably lead to the risk of further snow, before milder
air erodes the block, if indeed it does.

Have you noticed how this threat of snow has been quickly reduced
through this week, with a noticable lack of comment from the proposers?

On Feb 16, 6:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 13, 12:17*pm, freddie wrote:

From midweek onwards, an increasingly cold undercut from the frozen
Continental reservoir across eastern Europe, *will lead to 'bitter'
conditions being drawn towards us. Beware the misleadingly benign
850mb temperatures. Despite advertised temperatures I have seen, I
would anticipate values nearer 1-4C across central and eastern UK by
Friday. As the next set of fronts from the west engage this undercut,
snow threat is significant as we end the week.

Any 'breakdown' from the west thereafter is fraught with uncertainty,
and will inevitably lead to the risk of further snow, before milder
air erodes the block, if indeed it does.

Have you noticed how this threat of snow has been quickly reduced
through this week, with a noticable lack of comment from the proposers?

Cold later this week disappearing with each run, except in the NE of
Scotland. Temperatures in the south may well be in double figures Fri-
Sun.

Further out, the 06z support the development of a European high at
T240. If this trend were to continue, I may be able to issue a "high
pressure in Berne" forecast for my 100th. Now that really would be
hilarious! (Just for any old friends tuning in from Netweather and
TWO!)

Cold later this week disappearing with each run, except in the NE of
Scotland. Temperatures in the south may well be in double figures Fri-
Sun.

Warmest February on record still on the cards, now looking seriously like my
first snowless February in over 50 years
What a dire month, after an even more dire January. A very forgettable
Winter apart from the first few weeks!!
Roll on April

Graham

On Feb 17, 7:47*pm, "Graham" wrote:
Cold later this week disappearing with each run, except in the NE of
Scotland. Temperatures in the south may well be in double figures Fri-
Sun.

Warmest February on record still on the cards, now looking seriously like my
first snowless February in over 50 years
What a dire month, after an even more dire January. A very forgettable
Winter apart from the first few weeks!!
Roll on April

Graham

A record February is a possibility, as you've been saying, Graham.
Bang goes the headline forecast success from the agency's who went for
a cold start and end to the winter, whoever they were. Their moment of
greatness in the eyes of the coldies and the gutter press will have to
be postponed for another year, I fear. Would you believe it. Just for
once, I don't think anyone is likely to be able to claim forecasting
success for this particular winter. Are they?

and so says the cheating charlatan whos made up 80 forecasts, judged all
of them himself and thinks the met is full of teaboys who dont know
anthing about weather.

you can do it better cant you? who needs a supercomputers.

still awating proof.

On 17/02/2011 9:13 PM, Dawlish wrote:


A record February is a possibility, as you've been saying, Graham.
Bang goes the headline forecast success from the agency's who went for
a cold start and end to the winter, whoever they were. Their moment of
greatness in the eyes of the coldies and the gutter press will have to
be postponed for another year, I fear. Would you believe it. Just for
once, I don't think anyone is likely to be able to claim forecasting
success for this particular winter. Are they?

On Feb 13, 12:17*pm, freddie wrote:
From midweek onwards, an increasingly cold undercut from the frozen
Continental reservoir across eastern Europe, *will lead to 'bitter'
conditions being drawn towards us. Beware the misleadingly benign
850mb temperatures. Despite advertised temperatures I have seen, I
would anticipate values nearer 1-4C across central and eastern UK by
Friday. As the next set of fronts from the west engage this undercut,
snow threat is significant as we end the week.

Any 'breakdown' from the west thereafter is fraught with uncertainty,
and will inevitably lead to the risk of further snow, before milder
air erodes the block, if indeed it does.

Maybe a degree or so out at 2-5C, but at midday, temperatures are now
falling across eastern England as lower dewpoints arrive.
Otherwise I'm quite happy with this forecast from 5 days out, with the
other aspects of the forecasts still valid. Much to play for....

"freddie" wrote in message
...
On Feb 13, 12:17 pm, freddie wrote:
From midweek onwards, an increasingly cold undercut from the frozen
Continental reservoir across eastern Europe, will lead to 'bitter'
conditions being drawn towards us. Beware the misleadingly benign
850mb temperatures. Despite advertised temperatures I have seen, I
would anticipate values nearer 1-4C across central and eastern UK by
Friday. As the next set of fronts from the west engage this undercut,
snow threat is significant as we end the week.

Any 'breakdown' from the west thereafter is fraught with uncertainty,
and will inevitably lead to the risk of further snow, before milder
air erodes the block, if indeed it does.

Maybe a degree or so out at 2-5C, but at midday, temperatures are now
falling across eastern England as lower dewpoints arrive.
Otherwise I'm quite happy with this forecast from 5 days out, with the
other aspects of the forecasts still valid. Much to play for....
==========

I agree Freddie, cold undercuts are often under-estimated by those who look
at 850 hPa only. The 06GFS shows the massive uncertainty at 3 days ahead.
Bergen, Aberdeen and London ensembles show this. Dublin is much more
certain. This to me indicates a battleground in the east as the occlusion
slows down with the gradient dropping out all the time. Already Saturday's
front is slower. This does not bode well for brightness in the east, cold
and damp mostly.
6C still here at Haytor in the milder west.

Cheers,

Will
--