After a colder interlude this week, I don't think the cold will now
continue into the last week of Feb. Here's my one hundredth Internet
forecast. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:

**At T+240, on Thurs 24th Feb, following a cooler week, the UK will be
in an Atlantic feed of air. Temperatures will be average to above
average and the threat of an extended cold spell to finish the winter
will have gone. The Atlantic flow will contain troughs, bringing rain
and perhaps hill snow and transient ridges of high pressure, will
bring drier interludes and perhaps night frosts to the north. Any
transient ridges will bring springlike weather to the south in the
daytime.**

Is that it for the winter in terms of cold and snow? Highly unlikely.
The odds would be very much against it - but that may well be it for
the meteorological winter. *))

On Feb 14, 8:12*pm, Dawlish wrote:
After a colder interlude this week, I don't think the cold will now
continue into the last week of Feb. Here's my one hundredth Internet
forecast. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:

**At T+240, on Thurs 24th Feb, following a cooler week, the UK will be
in an Atlantic feed of air. Temperatures will be average to above
average and the threat of an extended cold spell to finish the winter
will have gone. The Atlantic flow will contain troughs, bringing rain
and perhaps hill snow and transient ridges of high pressure, will
bring drier interludes and perhaps night frosts to the north. Any
transient ridges will bring springlike weather to the south in the
daytime.**

Is that it for the winter in terms of cold and snow? Highly unlikely.
The odds would be very much against it - but that may well be it for
the meteorological winter. *))

there's more white Easters than white Christmases!

On Feb 14, 8:24*pm, Scott W wrote:
On Feb 14, 8:12*pm, Dawlish wrote:





After a colder interlude this week, I don't think the cold will now
continue into the last week of Feb. Here's my one hundredth Internet
forecast. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:

**At T+240, on Thurs 24th Feb, following a cooler week, the UK will be
in an Atlantic feed of air. Temperatures will be average to above
average and the threat of an extended cold spell to finish the winter
will have gone. The Atlantic flow will contain troughs, bringing rain
and perhaps hill snow and transient ridges of high pressure, will
bring drier interludes and perhaps night frosts to the north. Any
transient ridges will bring springlike weather to the south in the
daytime.**

Is that it for the winter in terms of cold and snow? Highly unlikely.
The odds would be very much against it - but that may well be it for
the meteorological winter. *))

there's more white Easters than white Christmases!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Very true, Scott!

they dont exist to they?
i checked the google groups archive and theres no way there is 100
forecasts by you.
A handful at best, and most of those blindy easy zonal forecasts.
your silence and refusal to say where those forecasts are speaks volumes.

yave you heard of the charlatans?


On 14/02/2011 8:49 PM, Dawlish wrote:

, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:

prove it.
post where and when , all links please.

On 14/02/2011 8:12 PM, Dawlish wrote:
.. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:

Did he provide them on TWO board before he was banned I wonder?
Just a thought? Is there an archive on TWO?
There certainly has not been 99 forecasts on USW!

Will
--

"Siberian Knight" wrote in message
...
prove it.
post where and when , all links please.

On 14/02/2011 8:12 PM, Dawlish wrote:
. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:

I do not understand how he is allowed to describe what he does as a
forecast. Forecasters, as I understand it, examine the charts for
previous days and extrapolate what will happen in the subsequent days.

Software engineers, using the knowledge and experience of forecasters,
produce models which automate, to some extent, what the forecasters do.

It is these models that are the forecasts. On the occasions that the
models are in agreement he produces what he calls a forecast but which
in reality is no different from a card player making successful winning
bets only after seeing the cards of the other players.

Just my two pennyworth which could be expressed considerably better by
the far more erudite contributors to USW.
PJ

On 14/02/2011 22:34, Will Hand wrote:
Did he provide them on TWO board before he was banned I wonder?
Just a thought? Is there an archive on TWO?
There certainly has not been 99 forecasts on USW!

Will
--

"Siberian Knight" wrote in message
...
prove it.
post where and when , all links please.

On 14/02/2011 8:12 PM, Dawlish wrote:
. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:

On Feb 14, 10:34*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Did he provide them on TWO board before he was banned I wonder?
Just a thought? Is there an archive on TWO?
There certainly has not been 99 forecasts on USW!

Will
--

"Siberian Knight" wrote in message

...



prove it.
post where and when , all links please.

On 14/02/2011 8:12 PM, Dawlish wrote:
. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'll look forward to you judging it at outcome. Every one of these 99
forecasts has been published on Netweather, TWO and here. I can assure
you that they have been picked over when they've been wrong. It will
be good to recieve any comments on the hundredth.

If you feel it is easy PJ, to forecast at 10 days at any time, all I
ask is that you try it and see how easy it is. I'm sure you'll be
successful, if it is easy. Fair enough?

On 15/02/2011 07:00, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 14, 10:34 pm, "Will wrote:
Did he provide them on TWO board before he was banned I wonder?
Just a thought? Is there an archive on TWO?
There certainly has not been 99 forecasts on USW!

Will
--

"Siberian wrote in message

...



prove it.
post where and when , all links please.

On 14/02/2011 8:12 PM, Dawlish wrote:
. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'll look forward to you judging it at outcome. Every one of these 99
forecasts has been published on Netweather, TWO and here. I can assure
you that they have been picked over when they've been wrong. It will
be good to recieve any comments on the hundredth.

If you feel it is easy PJ, to forecast at 10 days at any time, all I
ask is that you try it and see how easy it is. I'm sure you'll be
successful, if it is easy. Fair enough?

I did not imply it was was easy, just that the definition of a forecast
is incorrect. I stated that the models generate the forecast and you
wait until there is agreement between them. A forecast is based upon
present and past raw data.

If I were to produce a 10 day forecast based upon model agreement then I
hope that if that were to be successful on my first attempt then I would
have Newton's humility when he wrote in a letter to Robert Hooke "If I
have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants".
PJ

On Feb 15, 8:50*am, PJ wrote:

I did not imply it was was easy, just that the definition of a forecast
is incorrect. I stated that the models generate the forecast and you
wait until there is agreement between them. A forecast is based upon
present and past raw data.

You're running into a brick wall here I'm afraid.

If I were to produce a 10 day forecast based upon model agreement then I
hope that if that were to be successful on my first attempt then I would
have Newton's humility when he wrote in a letter to Robert Hooke "If I
have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants".

I'll pay some attention to his forecasts when he starts doing them
daily. Like forecasters do.

And if he asks you to "have a try yourself" for having a pop at him,
remind him that he loves to have a pop at the severe weather warnings
and yet doesn't give these a go himself. A man of contradiction.

Richard