Hi folks

Some weeks ago there was a big fuss on certain websites about the Met
Office's long range probability map from October 2010 which showed a 60 -
80% probability of above average temperature for the three-month period
November 2010 to January 2011 -

http://autonomousmind.files.wordpres...00&h=549&h=549

There was a lot of feigned outrage that the Met Office had forecast a mild
winter and had therefore got it badly wrong, given the wintry weather of
December 2010. Obviously this is not true because they correctly forecast
the early onset of cold and wintry weather well in advance, but I don't know
how to find out how well they did with the long-range probability map. Does
anyone know, please? Did that three-month period turn out to be above
average temperature or not? I can find the maps on the Met Office's website
but I can't find out how to evaluate how well they did after the fact.

Cheers,
John.

In article ,
Togless writes:
Hi folks

Some weeks ago there was a big fuss on certain websites about the Met
Office's long range probability map from October 2010 which showed a 60
- 80% probability of above average temperature for the three-month
period November 2010 to January 2011 -

http://autonomousmind.files.wordpres...ice_3mo_temp_m
ap_oct.jpg?w=500&h=549&h=549

There was a lot of feigned outrage that the Met Office had forecast a
mild winter and had therefore got it badly wrong, given the wintry
weather of December 2010. Obviously this is not true because they
correctly forecast the early onset of cold and wintry weather well in
advance, but I don't know how to find out how well they did with the
long-range probability map. Does anyone know, please? Did that three-
month period turn out to be above average temperature or not? I can
find the maps on the Met Office's website but I can't find out how to
evaluate how well they did after the fact.

No, November-January were well below average. November was cold,
December exceptionally cold, and January near average.

http://www.climate-uk.com/page3.html
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

"John Hall" wrote:

....
No, November-January were well below average. November was cold,
December exceptionally cold, and January near average.

http://www.climate-uk.com/page3.html

OK, thanks for the info.

"Togless" wrote in message
...
"John Hall" wrote:

...
No, November-January were well below average. November was cold,
December exceptionally cold, and January near average.

http://www.climate-uk.com/page3.html

OK, thanks for the info.


Now you have the info, will you now please judge for us how well the Met
Office did, to quote your first message. Note that the data was stated not
to constitute a seasonal forecast, and even if it did the implication would
only have been that there was considered just a 2 in 3 probability of above
average temperatures over the period. A fair degree of uncertainty
therefore.

Roger