The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:
The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.

On Feb 23, 10:53*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.

Certainly looking cool into March, but that gfs 00z is again a cold
outlier. I wouldn't set store by the gfs operational at present, but
the ECM has stayed closer to the ensemble mean and is probably the
closest to what conditions will be at 10 days - an anticyclone will
build toward us then retrogress, allowing a colder feed of air during
the first week of March.

its always a outlier when it doesnt fit your guess, sorry forecast.
fact is, it wasnt.

On 24/02/2011 8:14 AM, Dawlish wrote:
, but that gfs 00z is again a cold
outlier. I wouldn't set store by the gfs operational at present, but
the ECM has stayed closer to the ensemble mean and is probably the
closest to what conditions will be at 10 days - an anticyclone will
build toward us then retrogress, allowing a colder feed of air during
the first week of March.

On Feb 24, 8:14*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 23, 10:53*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.

Certainly looking cool into March, but that gfs 00z is again a cold
outlier. I wouldn't set store by the gfs operational at present, but
the ECM has stayed closer to the ensemble mean and is probably the
closest to what conditions will be at 10 days - an anticyclone will
build toward us then retrogress, allowing a colder feed of air during
the first week of March.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All sorts of possibilities for cold on those charts, however, both the
00z ECM and the 00z gfs keep a very cold plunge to our east at T240
and the UK in a cool northerly flow - probably mainly dry but with
night frosts and wintry showers for the hills. Chances of some
significant March cold can't be ruled out though.

On Feb 25, 9:57*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 24, 8:14*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 23, 10:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.

Certainly looking cool into March, but that gfs 00z is again a cold
outlier. I wouldn't set store by the gfs operational at present, but
the ECM has stayed closer to the ensemble mean and is probably the
closest to what conditions will be at 10 days - an anticyclone will
build toward us then retrogress, allowing a colder feed of air during
the first week of March.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All sorts of possibilities for cold on those charts, however, both the
00z ECM and the 00z gfs keep a very cold plunge to our east at T240
and the UK in a cool northerly flow - probably mainly dry but with
night frosts and wintry showers for the hills. Chances of some
significant March cold can't be ruled out though.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z gfs continues the theme of keeping a cold plunge to out east at 10
days.

On Feb 25, 5:56*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 25, 9:57*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 24, 8:14*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 23, 10:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.

Certainly looking cool into March, but that gfs 00z is again a cold
outlier. I wouldn't set store by the gfs operational at present, but
the ECM has stayed closer to the ensemble mean and is probably the
closest to what conditions will be at 10 days - an anticyclone will
build toward us then retrogress, allowing a colder feed of air during
the first week of March.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All sorts of possibilities for cold on those charts, however, both the
00z ECM and the 00z gfs keep a very cold plunge to our east at T240
and the UK in a cool northerly flow - probably mainly dry but with
night frosts and wintry showers for the hills. Chances of some
significant March cold can't be ruled out though.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z gfs continues the theme of keeping a cold plunge to out east at 10
days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Could be an extended period with an Atlantic high influencing our
weather. bright, cool and at times showery, with wintriness over the
hills, from now out into the second week of March with those charts.
Agreement and consistency, almost enough to extend my forecast.

On Feb 26, 8:41*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 25, 5:56*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 25, 9:57*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 24, 8:14*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 23, 10:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average.. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.

Certainly looking cool into March, but that gfs 00z is again a cold
outlier. I wouldn't set store by the gfs operational at present, but
the ECM has stayed closer to the ensemble mean and is probably the
closest to what conditions will be at 10 days - an anticyclone will
build toward us then retrogress, allowing a colder feed of air during
the first week of March.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All sorts of possibilities for cold on those charts, however, both the
00z ECM and the 00z gfs keep a very cold plunge to our east at T240
and the UK in a cool northerly flow - probably mainly dry but with
night frosts and wintry showers for the hills. Chances of some
significant March cold can't be ruled out though.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z gfs continues the theme of keeping a cold plunge to out east at 10
days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Could be an extended period with an Atlantic high influencing our
weather. bright, cool and at times showery, with wintriness over the
hills, from now out into the second week of March with those charts.
Agreement and consistency, almost enough to extend my forecast.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

06z gfs continues the theme.

On Feb 26, 11:04*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 26, 8:41*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 25, 5:56*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 25, 9:57*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 24, 8:14*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 23, 10:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.

Certainly looking cool into March, but that gfs 00z is again a cold
outlier. I wouldn't set store by the gfs operational at present, but
the ECM has stayed closer to the ensemble mean and is probably the
closest to what conditions will be at 10 days - an anticyclone will
build toward us then retrogress, allowing a colder feed of air during
the first week of March.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All sorts of possibilities for cold on those charts, however, both the
00z ECM and the 00z gfs keep a very cold plunge to our east at T240
and the UK in a cool northerly flow - probably mainly dry but with
night frosts and wintry showers for the hills. Chances of some
significant March cold can't be ruled out though.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z gfs continues the theme of keeping a cold plunge to out east at 10
days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Could be an extended period with an Atlantic high influencing our
weather. bright, cool and at times showery, with wintriness over the
hills, from now out into the second week of March with those charts.
Agreement and consistency, almost enough to extend my forecast.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

06z gfs continues the theme.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Looking like high pressure will dominate our weather at T240 and will
keep the cold to out east.

On Feb 26, 8:39*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 26, 11:04*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 26, 8:41*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 25, 5:56*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 25, 9:57*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 24, 8:14*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 23, 10:53*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.

Certainly looking cool into March, but that gfs 00z is again a cold
outlier. I wouldn't set store by the gfs operational at present, but
the ECM has stayed closer to the ensemble mean and is probably the
closest to what conditions will be at 10 days - an anticyclone will
build toward us then retrogress, allowing a colder feed of air during
the first week of March.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All sorts of possibilities for cold on those charts, however, both the
00z ECM and the 00z gfs keep a very cold plunge to our east at T240
and the UK in a cool northerly flow - probably mainly dry but with
night frosts and wintry showers for the hills. Chances of some
significant March cold can't be ruled out though.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z gfs continues the theme of keeping a cold plunge to out east at 10
days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Could be an extended period with an Atlantic high influencing our
weather. bright, cool and at times showery, with wintriness over the
hills, from now out into the second week of March with those charts.
Agreement and consistency, almost enough to extend my forecast.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

06z gfs continues the theme.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Looking like high pressure will dominate our weather at T240 and will
keep the cold to out east.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hints that the high pressure might just move along the progressive bus
on this morning's ECM, allowing in some milder air at T240 - but it's
very obvious now that the cold will miss us to the east. over the next
10 days. We'll be left with lots of sunny and mainly dry weather.
Spring; albeit a coolish start.