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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0556, 23/02/11 The weekend will see a switch back to nearer normal temperatures, with winds from a westerly quarter. Rain is likely in the north and NW, while further south a ridge should keep things largely dry. There's unlikely to be much change during the first half of the week. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS Southerlies cover the UK as the result of a deep low to the west. There are WSW'lies and SW'lies tomorrow as a trough moves eastwards, followed by further SSW'lies and southerlies on Friday. Saturday sees another trough move eastwards, with WSW'lies for all. T+120 synopsis http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif The jetstream chart shows a marked ridge over and to the west of the UK, something which is reflected at the 500hPa level. MetO has a ridge to the west and northerlies aloft, while ECM brings upper NW'lies. GEM has upper NW'lies as per ECM, as does JMA. At the surface GFS brings a ridge over Ireland and NW'lies for most as a result. MetO is the same, while the other runs have WNW'lies with a ridge further to the west. Evolution to T+168 ECM has a ridge over the UK on day 6 with NW'lies for England and Wales and SW'lies elsewhere. The ridge builds on day 7 with light winds for all. GFS shows a high over England and Wales on days 6 and 7, with SW'lies elswehere. Looking further afield Days 8 to 10 with ECM show high pressure retrogressing, with a NW'ly breeze picking up over the UK. GFS brings a trough southwards on day 8, followed by northerlies on days 9 and 10. Ensemble analysis http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres The 0z GEFS shows a near-average spell of weather for the weekend and beyond. The extended part of the run was a marked cold outlier. ECM ensembles http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif ECM also near-normal conditions after the weekend. |
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