Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0556, 23/02/11

The weekend will see a switch back to nearer normal temperatures, with winds
from a westerly quarter. Rain is likely in the north and NW, while further
south a ridge should keep things largely dry. There's unlikely to be much
change during the first half of the week.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
Southerlies cover the UK as the result of a deep low to the west. There are
WSW'lies and SW'lies tomorrow as a trough moves eastwards, followed by
further SSW'lies and southerlies on Friday. Saturday sees another trough
move eastwards, with WSW'lies for all.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a marked ridge over and to the west of the UK,
something which is reflected at the 500hPa level. MetO has a ridge to the
west and northerlies aloft, while ECM brings upper NW'lies. GEM has upper
NW'lies as per ECM, as does JMA.
At the surface GFS brings a ridge over Ireland and NW'lies for most as a
result. MetO is the same, while the other runs have WNW'lies with a ridge
further to the west.

Evolution to T+168
ECM has a ridge over the UK on day 6 with NW'lies for England and Wales and
SW'lies elsewhere. The ridge builds on day 7 with light winds for all.
GFS shows a high over England and Wales on days 6 and 7, with SW'lies
elswehere.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show high pressure retrogressing, with a NW'ly breeze
picking up over the UK.
GFS brings a trough southwards on day 8, followed by northerlies on days 9
and 10.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
The 0z GEFS shows a near-average spell of weather for the weekend and
beyond. The extended part of the run was a marked cold outlier.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
ECM also near-normal conditions after the weekend.