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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Monday.
Issued 0557, 24/02/11 The first half of the working week will see largely settled conditions over England and Wales, with rain further north and west as a trough moves southwards. The latter half of the week is much less certain, with GFS going for a colder and unsettled spell, while ECM keeps high pressure close by instead. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS SW'lies cover the UK, with a weak trough to the east. There are stronger SSW'lies tomorrow, followed by WSW'lies on Saturday as another trough moves eastwards. A weak ridge brings lighter westerlies and WNW'lies on Sunday. T+120 synopsis http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif The jetstream chart shows a ridge over the UK, something which is reflected at the 500hPa level. MetO also shows a ridge over the UK, while ECM's ridge is further west with upper northerlies as a result. JMA is similar to ECM and GEM is closer to GFS/MetO, with a ridge over the UK. At the surface GFS, MetO and GEM have a ridge over the UK and light winds. ECM and JMA have a ridge slightly further SW, with SW'lies for Scotland. Evolution to T+168 ECM has a high over the UK on day 6, followed by SW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 7 as the high weakens. GFS shows a trough over Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 6, with SW'lies there and a col elsewhere. On day 7 northerlies and NE'lies cover the UK, as pressure builds strongly to the NW. Looking further afield Days 8 to 10 with ECM show NW'lies easing as a ridge moves over the UK. GFS brings easterlies and NE'lies on days 8 to 10 as high pressure transfers eastwards to the north of the UK. Ensemble analysis http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres The 0z GEFS shows generally average or mild conditions for the next week, followed by a few colder days. ECM ensembles http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif ECM shows mild conditions for the next 3 days, followed by slightly less-mild conditions. |
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