uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1   Report Post  
Old February 24th 11, 05:59 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,020
Default Today's model interpretation (24/02/11)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Monday.
Issued 0557, 24/02/11

The first half of the working week will see largely settled conditions over
England and Wales, with rain further north and west as a trough moves
southwards. The latter half of the week is much less certain, with GFS going
for a colder and unsettled spell, while ECM keeps high pressure close by
instead.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
SW'lies cover the UK, with a weak trough to the east. There are stronger
SSW'lies tomorrow, followed by WSW'lies on Saturday as another trough moves
eastwards. A weak ridge brings lighter westerlies and WNW'lies on Sunday.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a ridge over the UK, something which is reflected
at the 500hPa level. MetO also shows a ridge over the UK, while ECM's ridge
is further west with upper northerlies as a result. JMA is similar to ECM
and GEM is closer to GFS/MetO, with a ridge over the UK.
At the surface GFS, MetO and GEM have a ridge over the UK and light winds.
ECM and JMA have a ridge slightly further SW, with SW'lies for Scotland.

Evolution to T+168
ECM has a high over the UK on day 6, followed by SW'lies for Scotland and
Northern Ireland on day 7 as the high weakens.
GFS shows a trough over Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 6, with SW'lies
there and a col elsewhere. On day 7 northerlies and NE'lies cover the UK, as
pressure builds strongly to the NW.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show NW'lies easing as a ridge moves over the UK.
GFS brings easterlies and NE'lies on days 8 to 10 as high pressure transfers
eastwards to the north of the UK.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
The 0z GEFS shows generally average or mild conditions for the next week,
followed by a few colder days.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
ECM shows mild conditions for the next 3 days, followed by slightly
less-mild conditions.



Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules

Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Today's model interpretation (10/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 10th 03 07:11 AM
Today's model interpretation (9/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 9th 03 07:13 AM
Today's model interpretation (8/7/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 8th 03 07:16 AM
Today's model interpretation (7/6/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 5th 03 07:15 AM
Today's model interpretation (5/07/03) Darren Prescott uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) 0 July 5th 03 06:10 AM


All times are GMT. The time now is 05:33 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©2004-2025 Weather Banter.
The comments are property of their posters.
 

About Us

"It's about Weather"

 

Copyright © 2017