Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.

proving your last forecast was wrong.

Will was right all along , as usual.

On 31/03/2011 8:54 PM, Dawlish wrote:
Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.

On Mar 31, 8:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.

Similar charts on the 00z gfs and ECM. If you believe the gfs 10
days, it will decline and be repplaced by unsettled weather again soon
after 10 days.

On 01/04/2011 06:48, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 31, 8:54 pm, wrote:
Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.
Similar charts on the 00z gfs and ECM. If you believe the gfs10
days, it will decline and be repplaced by unsettled weather again soon
after 10 days.

The Met Office 15 and 30 day outlooks are starting to "hunt" between
various outcomes. From cool and wet a week or two ago the tune changed
to warm and dry over much of the period with a possible breakdown later
but possibly an early taste of Summer in the south if the block held.
Now they have gone back to a less warm and more unsettled theme for the
latter part of the period.

So I'm not sure that I believe any of them, now. It's starting to look
like one or two occasions last winter - "Whatever they say we shall get
what comes". Shame, really, as the early taste of summer would be nice
fot the start of the cricket season.

It would be nice if Will's forecast in another thread (mostly warm and
dry into at least early Summer) were to verify. It is a long time since
we have had such a summer over much of the UK and after the wet Autumn
and start to Winter there should be ample groundwater reserves.
Possibly not so good in the areas the NIMBYs have refused to allow the
water companies to build adequate reservoirs...

--
- Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

On Mar 31, 8:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.

A couple of days later and the gfs is suggesting 70F, perhaps a little
warmer next weekend, but then we have a model disparity with the
operationals; gfs continues the blocking theme, but ECM suggests the
warm anticyclonic weather will be short-lived. More's the pity. My
heart goes with the gfs; my head goes wit the ECM.

On Apr 2, 7:31*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 31, 8:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.

A couple of days later and the gfs is suggesting 70F, perhaps a little
warmer next weekend, but then we have a model disparity with the
operationals; gfs continues the blocking theme, but ECM suggests the
warm anticyclonic weather will be short-lived. More's the pity. My
heart goes with the gfs; my head goes wit the ECM.

06z operational paints a very different picture and removes the
blocking.

On Apr 2, 10:55*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 2, 7:31*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Mar 31, 8:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.

A couple of days later and the gfs is suggesting 70F, perhaps a little
warmer next weekend, but then we have a model disparity with the
operationals; gfs continues the blocking theme, but ECM suggests the
warm anticyclonic weather will be short-lived. More's the pity. My
heart goes with the gfs; my head goes wit the ECM.

06z operational paints a very different picture and removes the
blocking.

ECM 00z shows high pressure hanging on over the UK until T240. GEM
sinks it south, allowing in the Atlantic and the gfs agrees. No
agreement; no consistency; any forecast would have a low chance of
success.

On Mar 31, 8:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.

Some lovely sunny and warm weather on the way for the second half of
this week and through the weekend. the first half of April is shaping
up to be quite a bit warmer (and sunnier) than average for much of the
UK.

On Apr 4, 8:41*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 31, 8:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.

Some lovely sunny and warm weather on the way for the second half of
this week and through the weekend. the first half of April is shaping
up to be quite a bit warmer (and sunnier) than average for much of the
UK.

Looking more like the high might sink southwards, allowing a flatter
jet to bring Atlantic weather back to the UK. The models have been
hinting at this, but there's been no agreement until this evening. See
if we get consistency tomorrow.