The TSR has revised their forecast down for the Atlantic Hurricane
season.

We will now see what difference the use of statistics for hard data is
in supercomputers and be able to make a comparison with a slightly
improved weatherlore model.

Some old stuff:

Tropical storms do not have to be deep or intense to drop a lot of
rain. It just happens that the good old days when they were first
identified as circular winds, wind power was the be all and end all of
navigation.

Today the main problem with them is still the amount of damage the
wind can do. But in developed countries civilised ones where colonials
have left a legacy that ends up in stripping the ground of its cover,
the rainfall when tropical storms come ashore is more damaging.

Satellites can measure heat, windspeed and sea levels. How much water
they contain is pretty much a mark of the area they cover.

How much water they drop is still a matter for god to determine, at
the moment.
And though Masak isn't (so far) an intense storm, it not only can go
anywhere it can do anything when it gets there.

At the moment we are in the middle of a very wet period. That is those
regions of the earth that tend to get rain are recieving it in
abundance this year. (Drier climes are enjoying extra sunny weather to
make up for it.)

So however much the storm drops, it will be too much. The water table
(the height of water in the ground -how deep you have to dig to find
it) is high. Wells are full, springs are torrents and there is
standing water everywhere. (Odd there haven't been more forest fires
reported.)

When Maysak goes ashore there will be damage on a large scale. The
same is true for Paloma which is heading straight for Cuba. Cuba has
been hit by 2 hurricanes so far this year. I wonder how their economy
is standing up to it.

Last time I looked, Maysac was 120 degrees from Newfoundland and the
Azores.

Now here is the thing, when a sever storm goes ashore it tends to
peter out. All that power disappears. But we know that there is a
conservation of energy factor in there somewhere. A lot of it is tied
up in adiabatics so that part is a closed loop.

But some of it will go into the ground somehow.

And we will have either a pair of earthquakes of some 5.5 M in the
same place consecutively or a larger quake something in the region of
7 M. or higher.

But not necessarily in that region. More likely it will occur some 120
degrees from wherever the storm goes ashore. We'll see. Give it a few
days. It won't occur in Newfoundland a that region sparks storms not
quakes. But the 120 arc runs through Baja at the moment. And that
region might quake.

Not that forecasting a couple of quakes on the west coast of North
America is ground breaking science, to coin a phrase.

But I find it interesting

I think I wrote that in January of the year it refers to, whatever..
The point is since then I settled on 80 degrees as the separation
required to link storms and quakes. It seemd more in keeping with
planetary waves (search Rossby Waves.)

Then there was this:

It is about 60 degrees from Antofagasta to New York, roughly the same
distance to Unimak Island from Cape Hatteras.

Roughly is good enough, in that the southern reaches of the
Appalachians could be given as Alabama -which is 60 degrees from Hilo,
more or less.

Sixty degrees is something like 1/8 of a day if you are not Esquimaux;
3 hours, 3 time zones; an interesting harmonic.

If you are quick you will see that there is an High stepping off the
shelf at Cape Hatteras. A series of them have run up the coast of the
USA along the Appalachians (2 wide and ?14? long.) These are the
remains of a standing wave that was situated over the mid west for
several days this week.

Appropos of nothing better to do let's have a look at these places:
24thJanuary 2008.
Mag Day Place

1. M 5.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2. M 5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
3. M 5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
4. M 5.8 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5. M 5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6. M 5.2 STATE OF YAP, FED. STATES OF MICRONESIA

These places are all pretty close to 60 degrees from:

1. Calcutta; Hilo; Petropavlovsk; Lake Qinghai.
2. Tonga; Midway Island; Petropavlovsk; Karachi; Central NZ.
3. Where the Madagasgar hurricane is; Vanuatu; Hoaria;
4.
5.
6.

This was an attempt to join the dots using information from a book
based on a Lunarist of the late Victorian era and the fact that the
arcs of the Rockies coincide with the weather centres of the North
Atlantic and are some 60 degrees or so.

(I went into more detail about that in my blog but I don't have a
link, sorry. The Blog is on Opera's servers and is called Quirks.)

It turns out I'd made the classic mistake of confusing measurement.
Distances in arc on a sphere do not translate directly as distances in
unit measurements on a flat surface.

So when I was attempting to make a cardboard cut-out to get a quick
look see over the globe, I opened out a pair of dividers to 60
degrees, measured the distance between the points, halved it and drew
a circle with that radius.

You can guess what happened next. But by great good fortune I happened
on the arc that described so much of North America, I kept the cut
outs. I've lost them now, thrown out most likely. But I can gauge the
distance. It is:
62 degrees.

I suppose I could work it all out again but I can't be bothered. It's
near enough. And it doesn't seem to have a great deal of bearing on
the weather with regard to earthquakes.

Except of course it is half way to the middle of the shadow zone.

OOOH!

Let's have another look at that list:

High off the shelf at Cape Hatteras. A series of them have run up the
coast of the USA along the Appalachians (2 degrees? wide and ?14?
long.) These are the remains of a standing wave that was situated over
the mid west for several days this week.


5. M 5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Micronesia also get a hammering when the Aleutians and Japanese arc is
disturbed. But I can't be expected to go running after all these
quakes can I?

I wonder where the Izu Islands are. About 10 degrees south of Honshu I
expect.

On Apr 20, 1:47*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
The TSR has revised their forecast down for the Atlantic Hurricane
season.

We will now see what difference the use of statistics for hard data is
in supercomputers and be able to make a comparison with a slightly
improved weatherlore model.

Some old stuff:

Tropical storms do not have to be deep or intense to drop a lot of
rain. It just happens that the good old days when they were first
identified as circular winds, wind power was the be all and end all of
navigation.

Today the main problem with them is still the amount of damage the
wind can do. But in developed countries civilised ones where colonials
have left a legacy that ends up in stripping the ground of its cover,
the rainfall when tropical storms come ashore is more damaging.

Satellites can measure heat, windspeed and sea levels. How much water
they contain is pretty much a mark of the area they cover.

How much water they drop is still a matter for god to determine, at
the moment.
And though Masak isn't (so far) an intense storm, it not only can go
anywhere it can do anything when it gets there.

At the moment we are in the middle of a very wet period. That is those
regions of the earth that tend to get rain are recieving it in
abundance this year. (Drier climes are enjoying extra sunny weather to
make up for it.)

So however much the storm drops, it will be too much. The water table
(the height of water in the ground -how deep you have to dig to find
it) is high. Wells are full, springs are torrents and there is
standing water everywhere. (Odd there haven't been more forest fires
reported.)

When Maysak goes ashore there will be damage on a large scale. The
same is true for Paloma which is heading straight for Cuba. Cuba has
been hit by 2 hurricanes so far this year. I wonder how their economy
is standing up to it.

Last time I looked, Maysac was 120 degrees from Newfoundland and the
Azores.

Now here is the thing, when a sever storm goes ashore it tends to
peter out. All that power disappears. But we know that there is a
conservation of energy factor in there somewhere. A lot of it is tied
up in adiabatics so that part is a closed loop.

But some of it will go into the ground somehow.

And we will have either a pair of earthquakes of some 5.5 M in the
same place consecutively or a larger quake something in the region of
7 M. or higher.

But not necessarily in that region. More likely it will occur some 120
degrees from wherever the storm goes ashore. We'll see. Give it a few
days. It won't occur in Newfoundland a that region sparks storms not
quakes. But the 120 arc runs through Baja at the moment. And that
region might quake.

Not that forecasting a couple of quakes on the west coast of North
America is ground breaking science, to coin a phrase.

But I find it interesting

I think I wrote that in January of the year it refers to, whatever..
The point is since then I settled on 80 *degrees as the separation
required to link storms and quakes. It seemd more in keeping with
planetary waves (search Rossby Waves.)

Then there was this:

It is about 60 degrees from Antofagasta to New York, roughly the same
distance to Unimak Island from Cape Hatteras.

Roughly is good enough, in that the southern reaches of the
Appalachians could be given as Alabama -which is 60 degrees from Hilo,
more or less.

Sixty degrees is something like 1/8 of a day if you are not Esquimaux;
3 hours, 3 time zones; an interesting harmonic.

If you are quick you will see that there is an High stepping off the
shelf at Cape Hatteras. A series of them have run up the coast of the
USA along the Appalachians (2 wide and ?14? long.) These are the
remains of a standing wave that was situated over the mid west for
several days this week.

Appropos of nothing better to do let's have a look at these places:
24thJanuary 2008.
Mag * * Day * * Place

1. M 5.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2. M 5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
3. M 5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
4. M 5.8 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5. M 5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6. M 5.2 STATE OF YAP, FED. STATES OF MICRONESIA

These places are all pretty close to 60 degrees from:

1. Calcutta; Hilo; Petropavlovsk; Lake Qinghai.
2. Tonga; Midway Island; Petropavlovsk; Karachi; Central NZ.
3. Where the Madagasgar hurricane is; Vanuatu; Hoaria;
4.
5.
6.

This was an attempt to join the dots using information from a book
based on a Lunarist of the late Victorian era and the fact that the
arcs of the Rockies coincide with the weather centres of the North
Atlantic and are some 60 degrees or so.

(I went into more detail about that in my blog but I don't have a
link, sorry. The Blog is on Opera's servers and is called Quirks.)

It turns out I'd made the classic mistake of confusing measurement.
Distances in arc on a sphere do not translate directly as distances in
unit measurements on a flat surface.

So when I was attempting to make a cardboard cut-out to get a quick
look see over the globe, I opened out a pair of dividers to 60
degrees, measured the distance between the points, halved it and drew
a circle with that radius.

You can guess what happened next. But by great good fortune I happened
on the arc that described so much of North America, I kept the cut
outs. I've lost them now, thrown out most likely. But I can gauge the
distance. It is:
62 degrees.

I suppose I could work it all out again but I can't be bothered. It's
near enough. And it doesn't seem to have a great deal of bearing on
the weather with regard to earthquakes.

Except of course it is half way to the middle of the shadow zone.

OOOH!

Let's have another look at that list:

High off the shelf at Cape Hatteras. A series of them have run up the
coast of the USA along the Appalachians (2 degrees? wide and ?14?
long.) These are the remains of a standing wave that was situated over
the mid west for several days this week.

5. M 5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Micronesia also get a hammering when the Aleutians and Japanese arc is
disturbed. But I can't be expected to go running after all these
quakes can I?

I wonder where the Izu Islands are. About 10 degrees south of Honshu I
expect.

Drat. Forgot to crosspost.

And splet the wrod Japanese wrog.

So now a change of harmonic:

I realise now the problem in finding a suitable magnitude of
earthquakes is that they all relate to different areas on the planet.
It has only just occurred to me that there could be more than one
Rossby wave going through a region.

I have always believed that storms are made up of collections of
smaller fronts or waves. It is the exact same physics for wave trains
and super-waves in the sea. And the physics for that has always been
known.

And so it is with quakes -as in fact it is with storm systems on the
other side of the planet showing up with their figerprints all over
the Atlantic chart, the reason for a super quake is that they all come
together at once.

The statistics or laws of statistics/probability all point to that
conclusion too.

Oh boy, I'm too good for this place. even both of them too neither.

Nowall I have to do is traipse down to Exit door and humbly ask
entrance to the MetO library and check it out.
Yes, as if...

But still. All one would have to do is check it out. Lows too as well
as Highs.
I'm not expecting miracles. I know it is far far easier to forecast
earthquakes than to persuade an idiot he is misguided.

And what's mor eif he has friends he'd rather keep and a mortgage he'd
rather pay...
Ah well, twas ever thus.

Or not as the case might just be, one day, before I die I hope.

Weather forecast for our part of the North Atlantic 2011
Including tentative spells for hurricanes in the same ocean.

Here are the phases, taken from the stuff produced by Fred Espenak at
NASA:

2011.

4. Jan. 09:03 T
12. Jan. 11:31 F
19. Jan. 21:21 T
26. Jan. 12:57 W
3. Feb. 02:31
11. Feb. 07:18 W
18. Feb. 08:36
24. Feb. 23:26 F
4. Mar. 20:46 F
12. Mar. 23:45 M
19. Mar. 18:10 M
26. Mar. 12:07 M
3. Apr. 14:32
11. Apr. 12:05 M
18. Apr. 02:44
25. Apr. 02:47 early start? TS.
3. May. 06:51 W possible TS
10. May. 20:33
17. May. 11:09 F Do these or don't they. I forget. Hurricane?
24. May. 18:52 W Hurricane
1. Jun. 21:03 Hurricane
9. Jun. 02:11
15. Jun. 20:13
23. Jun. 11:48 M Hurricane
1. Jul. 08:54 T Hurricane
8. Jul. 06:29 M Hurricane
15. Jul. 06:40 Mw Hurricane
23. Jul. 05:02 F Hurricane?
30. Jul. 18:40 Mw Hurricane
6. Aug. 11:08 F Hurricane?
13. Aug. 18:58 W possible TS or SS
21. Aug. 21:55
29. Aug. 03:04 T Hurricane
4. Sept. 17:39 Fm Hurricane
12. Sept. 09:27 T= Hurricane
20. Sept. 13:39 W- TS
27. Sept. 11:09 F Hurricane
4. Oct. 03:15 T Hurricane
12. Oct. 02:06
20. Oct. 03:30 T= Hurricane though it's late in the season, so maybe a
TS?
26. Oct. 19:56
2. Nov. 16:38 -w TS?
10. Nov. 20:16
18. Nov. 15:09 T TS?
25. Nov. 06:10 M TS?
2. Dec. 09:52 TS
10. Dec. 14:36
18. Dec. 00:48 W TS?
4. Dec. 18:06 M TS
5.
Batten down the hatches boys, it's going to be another record breaker.

*******

A lot of the above spells will be subject to the Greenland High. The
ones to watch out for are the times that fall on or near the half hour
if they are dry spells. And the ones that fall on twenty to or twenty
past the hour are also just a dificult to get right.
(But who wants to do easy jig-saws?)

Allied to theawkward ones above are the hours 2 till 4:30 inclusive. I
think these ones are where the Pacific storms and anticyclones
dominate. I don't know much about these as I don't study their charts
much.

Maybe if I moved to Leeds or Devon or learned to speak Germans, things
would be different. I've always had a yen to go to Canada or nowadays
Russia if I could find a place in Siberia that would give me access to
decent weather records.

The Canadian stuff is excellent but I can't find archives. They'd send
me the data if I had the shekels but god forbid I get a spare penny
for things like that.

I should have done it before the thieves at the banks robbed us all
blind. Serves me right.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html
You can get the link of the SSPs to go back 20 days.

Too much to ask them for the full 9 yards. Still, never mine.

Be that as it may, what matters more than me calling the shots
correctly, is that the phases run in matched sets and cause whatever
natural phenomena accordingly.

I've written T to indicate thunderstorms, M for misty or low overcast
with some chance of slight drizzle.

In the hurricane season, the M spells will have an hurricane or
tropical storm. A lot -as I said, depends on Blocking -especially over
Greenland. I have an idea these blocks form in a relationship to
weather in the North Pacific. That ocean after all, is the supply of
half the storms that eventually cross the North Atlantic.

W is for wet and small letters indicate the spell could go that way,
seeing as the time of the phase concerned is on the above stated
cusps. (20 minutes past and to the relevant hour.) Along that line of
thought, the hyphens and the = sign mean the spell could go
west, .....thataway.

Those spells approaching -or at- W in the season, will probably have
either Super-Cyclones or just Tropical Storms. I am only guessing. But
wouldn't you rather be alerted than not?

2 to 2:30 (and multiples/ factors/ ratios/ highest common whatevers of
said time) tends to produce tornadic events which, in the unblocked
Atlantic, is an High over Greenland with an Azores High displaced to
the east. A Low from North America will travel through these corridors
the day before the tornadic event.

Thus it is evidence of a negative NAO.

These times too in a blocked situation tend to produce tropical storms
in the Indian Ocean. But I am far from certain about that at the
moment.

4 to 4:30 tends to be the remit of volcanic activity on certain
occasions. Blocking Highs perhaps? I don't know. I lost a lot of
confidence after 2006 when nothing I said came out right. It was a few
years before I got back into it with the realisation that the
Greenland High was the lynch-pin.

*******

Points to look for when my code goes wrong -as it will from time to
time:

Tropical storms will show up on the Atlantic SSP.
Different oceans and different basins of the oceans have different
signatures. And I have yet to put my finger on all of that stuff.

When more mainstream weather forecasts go wrong or seem uncertain, it
means that the excess energy in the system is being subverted
subterranically. The reptiles have it.Unless wit-man speak with
forced tongue.

I dare say that now that I have shown the way, better people than I
could take over but it seems to me that science has dug a niche it
doesn't want to change -or is too scared to be seen doing actual
research to do actual research.

(How can you want to preserve the status quo and engage in research?)

So until then, you'll just have to put up with me pottering along from
one insight to the next, when and if I can. It seems terribly simple
to me, no more difficult than doing a jig-saw puzzle. And I get fed up
with it too easily for your own good.

You've been warned.

Anyone know where I can find online archives of these?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/...is/947_100.gif