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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Monday.
Issued 0441z, 26/05/11 The first half of the week will see showery (away from the SE) and relatively cool WSW'lies giving way to a ridge from the south, with temperatures rising through the latter half of the week. It's uncertain as to whether the settled conditions will extend across the whole of the UK, however, with NW Scotland in particular likely to stay breezy and perhaps showery throughout. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS Low pressure covers Northern Ireland, leading to SW'lies across much of the UK. NW'lies cover the UK tomorrow as the low moves away to the NE, followed by WSW'lies on Saturday. Sunday sees SW'lies ahead of a trough to the west. T+120 synopsis http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif The jetstream chart shows a strong and zonal jet across the Atlantic, with a small trough over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's also a trough, with a zonal flow upstream. MetO shows a trough to the west and SW'lies aloft, as do the other runs. At the surface the runs show WSW'lies with a low to the north. Evolution to T+168 Days 6 and 7 with ECM show a ridge building across England and Wales with southerlies elsewhere. GFS brings WSW'lies on day 6 as a low crosses northern Scotland. Day 7 sees SW'lies with a high to the south. Looking further afield Day 8 with ECM shows a ridge over England and Wales and southerlies elsewhere. On day 9 there's a col and on day 10 northerlies associated with a ridge to the west cover the UK. GFS shows southerlies on day 8 from a high to the east. Day 9 sees a col for all areas except Scotland, which lies under SW'lies. On day 10 WSW'lies cover the UK as low pressure deepens to the NW. Ensemble analysis http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres The GEFS shows a marked rise in temperatures in a week's time. ECM ensembles http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif The ECM also shows warmer conditions in a week's time. |
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